Recruiting analysis

takethepoints

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,148
Ok, nobody would take me up on looking at recruiting so I decided to do it myself. The results are in the small table below. I compare Tech with the three schools most like us in the NCAA - VT (sorta), Rice, and Purdue. All style themselves technical institutions, three are public and one private. (For reasons known only to Rivals and God, Rice was left out of the ratings for 2008 and 2010.) I also included Duke and Pitt since everybody seems to have their shorts in a nit about them. I used the Rivals average "stars" ratings for each team in each year instead of the overall rankings. The overall is a product of the stars and the number of recruits and is obviously invalid for year over year comparisons, given the varying slots available for each year. The average stars don't tell us nearly as much as they should, but the stats aren't ready for anything else.

I should preface this by saying that the usual ACC suspects - Clemson, FSU, UNC, and Da U - always out recruit everybody else in the conference. I know you are shocked.

Screen Shot 2018-10-20 at 11.09.14 AM.png


The first thing to notice is that VT is out recruiting everybody else, but not by much. The second is that Pitt always has good years; no surprise given where they are. The third point of interest is that Tech easily our recruits Purdue, the closest to us in basic characteristics. Fourth, there's the slow increase in Duke's recruiting rating since 2014; their average since then is 2.94, Tech's is 2.90. Close. You think maybe all the extra resources Cutliffe has gotten are paying off?

The main thing here, however, is how well Tech is doing in terms of the quality of the recruits involved. We are far from being some kind of recruiting disaster, like some people here keep talking about. Our average stars over the period in question are 2.89; VT's are 3.12. Not bad, given the difference in entrance standards and curriculum at the two schools. And a good deal better then Duke: 2.72.

Will this satisfy some folks here? Of course not. We have a vocal minority here who think we should go the factory route and try to be another Clemson. For the last time (I wish): that is not going to happen. Not today, not tomorrow, not evah! We do and have had a good football program. Imho, we can get up to the VT level with additional resources. But that'll take time. And money.
 
Messages
13,443
Location
Augusta, GA
Ok, nobody would take me up on looking at recruiting so I decided to do it myself. The results are in the small table below. I compare Tech with the three schools most like us in the NCAA - VT (sorta), Rice, and Purdue. All style themselves technical institutions, three are public and one private. (For reasons known only to Rivals and God, Rice was left out of the ratings for 2008 and 2010.) I also included Duke and Pitt since everybody seems to have their shorts in a nit about them. I used the Rivals average "stars" ratings for each team in each year instead of the overall rankings. The overall is a product of the stars and the number of recruits and is obviously invalid for year over year comparisons, given the varying slots available for each year. The average stars don't tell us nearly as much as they should, but the stats aren't ready for anything else.

I should preface this by saying that the usual ACC suspects - Clemson, FSU, UNC, and Da U - always out recruit everybody else in the conference. I know you are shocked.

View attachment 4340

The first thing to notice is that VT is out recruiting everybody else, but not by much. The second is that Pitt always has good years; no surprise given where they are. The third point of interest is that Tech easily our recruits Purdue, the closest to us in basic characteristics. Fourth, there's the slow increase in Duke's recruiting rating since 2014; their average since then is 2.94, Tech's is 2.90. Close. You think maybe all the extra resources Cutliffe has gotten are paying off?

The main thing here, however, is how well Tech is doing in terms of the quality of the recruits involved. We are far from being some kind of recruiting disaster, like some people here keep talking about. Our average stars over the period in question are 2.89; VT's are 3.12. Not bad, given the difference in entrance standards and curriculum at the two schools. And a good deal better then Duke: 2.72.

Will this satisfy some folks here? Of course not. We have a vocal minority here who think we should go the factory route and try to be another Clemson. For the last time (I wish): that is not going to happen. Not today, not tomorrow, not evah! We do and have had a good football program. Imho, we can get up to the VT level with additional resources. But that'll take time. And money.
And it will take TIME and MONEY, not matter who the coach is or what system he runs.
 

TheSilasSonRising

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,729
Well, we have a definitive goal for money if TStan is to be believed.

What is the time goal? A 20 year contract? 15 years? 30 years? Would puke, Rice, northwestern, Purdue, vandy, Stanford, give any coach as much time as we do? Would you run your business that way?
 

Jacket in Dairyland

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,053
This was a very good analysis. Thanks for your efforts. I love discussing recruiting all year. IMO, the numbers you show are a great gauge of the relative programs. I have NEVER thought our recruiting is a disaster. What I have though we were missing however, is a " special" player- a PLAYMAKER ( or heck, even 2 ) from each class. We have had some - JT became one most recently. But we have not had enough freshmen recruits, on either side of the ball, to feel relatively certain that we would have a game changer or two coming on the depth chart. We get good , solid guys that work hard, but we need more than that to be a consistently winning program.
 

takethepoints

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,148
Well, we have a definitive goal for money if TStan is to be believed.

What is the time goal? A 20 year contract? 15 years? 30 years? Would puke, Rice, northwestern, Purdue, vandy, Stanford, give any coach as much time as we do? Would you run your business that way?
I doubt this is the time horizon. More like 3 - 4, if that. And, yes, if you had any sense, you would run a business like that. The problem we have nowadays is that we give business decisions over to the finance guys, sorta like Sears did. This is, as the history of that takeover shows, so stupid, so fraught with conflicts of interest, that it's almost as bad as letting the alums of a school dictate the course of its football program.

Let's hope we avoid that.
 

tech_wreck47

Helluva Engineer
Messages
8,670
Ok, nobody would take me up on looking at recruiting so I decided to do it myself. The results are in the small table below. I compare Tech with the three schools most like us in the NCAA - VT (sorta), Rice, and Purdue. All style themselves technical institutions, three are public and one private. (For reasons known only to Rivals and God, Rice was left out of the ratings for 2008 and 2010.) I also included Duke and Pitt since everybody seems to have their shorts in a nit about them. I used the Rivals average "stars" ratings for each team in each year instead of the overall rankings. The overall is a product of the stars and the number of recruits and is obviously invalid for year over year comparisons, given the varying slots available for each year. The average stars don't tell us nearly as much as they should, but the stats aren't ready for anything else.

I should preface this by saying that the usual ACC suspects - Clemson, FSU, UNC, and Da U - always out recruit everybody else in the conference. I know you are shocked.

View attachment 4340

The first thing to notice is that VT is out recruiting everybody else, but not by much. The second is that Pitt always has good years; no surprise given where they are. The third point of interest is that Tech easily our recruits Purdue, the closest to us in basic characteristics. Fourth, there's the slow increase in Duke's recruiting rating since 2014; their average since then is 2.94, Tech's is 2.90. Close. You think maybe all the extra resources Cutliffe has gotten are paying off?

The main thing here, however, is how well Tech is doing in terms of the quality of the recruits involved. We are far from being some kind of recruiting disaster, like some people here keep talking about. Our average stars over the period in question are 2.89; VT's are 3.12. Not bad, given the difference in entrance standards and curriculum at the two schools. And a good deal better then Duke: 2.72.

Will this satisfy some folks here? Of course not. We have a vocal minority here who think we should go the factory route and try to be another Clemson. For the last time (I wish): that is not going to happen. Not today, not tomorrow, not evah! We do and have had a good football program. Imho, we can get up to the VT level with additional resources. But that'll take time. And money.
IMO this proves that when you put resources into your program the recruiting will get better (Duke)
 

Matt E

GT Athlete
Messages
275
Our recruiting isn’t great, but as others have stated my concern is more on the player development side. How many times have we been excited about a young player, only to see them seemingly get no better between there freshman/sophomore and senior years? How many kids look similar body make up wise and don’t put on great weight as they get older (KeShaun Freeman comes to mind). I can only conclude that strength and conditioning needs massive overhaul as well as certain position coaches, regardless of the status of PJ moving forward.
 

tech_wreck47

Helluva Engineer
Messages
8,670
Thanks for doing the work, this tells me what I really didn't want to know. We are not coaching our players up. That is a bad problem.
I’m gonna have to disagree some, VT, Pitt, and Duke have recruited higher than us for 3 straight years. Imo that kinda tells the story. I think the reason we aren’t seeing wins is kind of unexplainable and if I had to pin point something it’s almost a mentality thing where we are in a slump and are pressing to hard which causes mistakes. I don’t think it’s on the coaching when they haven’t forgotten how to coach.
 

stech81

Helluva Engineer
Messages
8,962
Location
Woodstock Georgia
I’m gonna have to disagree some, VT, Pitt, and Duke have recruited higher than us for 3 straight years. Imo that kinda tells the story. I think the reason we aren’t seeing wins is kind of unexplainable and if I had to pin point something it’s almost a mentality thing where we are in a slump and are pressing to hard which causes mistakes. I don’t think it’s on the coaching when they haven’t forgotten how to coach.
You could be right but if it's pressing to hard would that not fall on coaching ? I don't think the coaches have forgot how to coach. I don't know what the problem is now. I want to see CPJ and Tech win , but if we don't something has to be done. I thought after winning a road game things would have turned the corner. I think right now we can win most games on our schedule and we can also lose most of them.
 

GTonTop88

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,013
Location
Gibson, GA
Our recruiting isn’t great, but as others have stated my concern is more on the player development side. How many times have we been excited about a young player, only to see them seemingly get no better between there freshman/sophomore and senior years? How many kids look similar body make up wise and don’t put on great weight as they get older (KeShaun Freeman comes to mind). I can only conclude that strength and conditioning needs massive overhaul as well as certain position coaches, regardless of the status of PJ moving forward.
Another thing is that we play people out of position a lot. They may be a 3 star 6’1 220 OLB like Keshaun and they play DE 4 years here and him being out of position make him a 2 star DE.

We may not be far off with overall recruiting but I think our main problem is we under recruit on the OL and DL so much we can’t make up for it even though we aren’t far off on paper as shown above.

Another thing is practicing against our offense hurts our defense. The same way no one can replicate our offense in practice and struggle against our offense, we can’t replicate anybody else’s offense so we struggle against them.
 

Jacket in Dairyland

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,053
Another thing is that we play people out of position a lot. They may be a 3 star 6’1 220 OLB like Keshaun and they play DE 4 years here and him being out of position make him a 2 star DE.

We may not be far off with overall recruiting but I think our main problem is we under recruit on the OL and DL so much we can’t make up for it even though we aren’t far off on paper as shown above.

Another thing is practicing against our offense hurts our defense. The same way no one can replicate our offense in practice and struggle against our offense, we can’t replicate anybody else’s offense so we struggle against them.
Complete agreement
 

Jacket in Dairyland

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,053
Complete agreement
We may see that Woody and staff are pretty good at coaching up. They were probably doing that at App State. You can see improvement in Anree this year coached by Riase.
I don't see as much of that on the OL. Braun was good coming in and may get better. Many others seem to have A) reached their " ceiling", or B) were "projects" who haven't improved too much. They lose way too many times in one on one battles - too slow- too weak- bad technique, etc. And these problems, IMO fall on the OL staff ( and ultimately CPJ ) because we don't, or can't, recruit better OL and/or they don't get good coaching to get better.
 

takethepoints

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,148
So we are recruiting roughly the same as Duke yet losing 80 percent of our games against them over 5 years. Not sure this helps your overall argument regarding the current regime.
Never said it did. Oth, going 2 - 2 against VT and Ugag (consistently in the top 10 using the scale in the table above) in the last four years sure does.

You are fixating on Duke. It's like all sports; sometimes people get a streak going on you. This is almost always the result of bum luck, unless you can't get athletes like the other side does. Like, say, Clemson.
 

Matt E

GT Athlete
Messages
275
So we are recruiting roughly the same as Duke yet losing 80 percent of our games against them over 5 years. Not sure this helps your overall argument regarding the current regime.

That was the argument right? The option would be the great equalizer and would help us compete against teams better than us. For a long while we consistently beat teams that were a draw in talent, sometimes handily. That’s not happening anymore
 

takethepoints

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,148
I’m gonna have to disagree some, VT, Pitt, and Duke have recruited higher than us for 3 straight years. Imo that kinda tells the story. I think the reason we aren’t seeing wins is kind of unexplainable and if I had to pin point something it’s almost a mentality thing where we are in a slump and are pressing to hard which causes mistakes. I don’t think it’s on the coaching when they haven’t forgotten how to coach.
As I pointed out about Duke, I'm pretty sure that the difference (2.90 v. 2.94) isn't significant. For Pitt, they've been out recruiting us - and a lot of other people - for some time n0w; they are right in the middle of football recruiting central. VT is another story too.

Also, while I did this analysis, I don't trust it too far. In 2015 we recruited Mills, a 3 star player that almost everybody wanted as an LB. We made him into a BB - what he wanted to play and was absolutely built for. If he had stayed, none of this conversation would have ever come up. It's that kind of Moneyball recruiting that is one of the present staff's major selling points for me.
 

BCJacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
761
This was a very good analysis. Thanks for your efforts. I love discussing recruiting all year. IMO, the numbers you show are a great gauge of the relative programs. I have NEVER thought our recruiting is a disaster. What I have though we were missing however, is a " special" player- a PLAYMAKER ( or heck, even 2 ) from each class. We have had some - JT became one most recently. But we have not had enough freshmen recruits, on either side of the ball, to feel relatively certain that we would have a game changer or two coming on the depth chart. We get good , solid guys that work hard, but we need more than that to be a consistently winning program.

Seems like part of that has been bad luck with attrition. I don't think we have worse attrition than average, overall. But we've lost out with guys like Travis Custis, Myles Autry, AJ Gray, Dedrick Mills, Jaylend Ratliffe and others over the years who had the potential to be special. Imagine if this team had a healthy Jaylend Ratliffe as a Senior or RS Junior QB (With LJ backing him up), Dedrick Mills as a Junior RB (with Kirvonte backing him up), AJ Gray leading the Defense, and so on. Some of our best prospects have been lost to injury, health, off-field issues...
 

bobongo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
7,753
Never said it did. Oth, going 2 - 2 against VT and Ugag (consistently in the top 10 using the scale in the table above) in the last four years sure does.

You are fixating on Duke. It's like all sports; sometimes people get a streak going on you. This is almost always the result of bum luck, unless you can't get athletes like the other side does. Like, say, Clemson.

Got to give him credit for that - hope we can win Thursday.
 

iceeater1969

Helluva Engineer
Messages
9,781
Another thing is that we play people out of position a lot. They may be a 3 star 6’1 220 OLB like Keshaun and they play DE 4 years here and him being out of position make him a 2 star DE.

We may not be far off with overall recruiting but I think our main problem is we under recruit on the OL and DL so much we can’t make up for it even though we aren’t far off on paper as shown above.

Another thing is practicing against our offense hurts our defense. The same way no one can replicate our offense in practice and struggle against our offense, we can’t replicate anybody else’s offense so we struggle against them.
The pelton defense required the little guy de to first jam the tackle. During the time outs in the fsu acc champ game , the fsu o l would just stand in position TGCGT.
They were so massive the looked like ORCKS (sic). Why we tried to rush through and not around them was stupid coaching. We were scoring at while and needed a stop and they ran right off tackle. He grabbed our DE and started running right as Dalton ran through the hole.
Defense we have now - Keeshaun would be great lb.

Come to gt and play out of position.
WB start as r g and added weight.
Then attrition and marshall injuries - play both g and t so loose weight.
Then gain weight 300 plus as Shamire too big, but then go back down to 285 12% BMI to play tackle.
 
Top