Ranking projection

[roadkill]

If Wake wins out they are 9-3, likely going to a nice bowl, and that becomes a quality win. They may even crack the top 25.

Colley's ranking system now has enough data to make sense. We are down to 15th, which is exactly the same rank as the AP.
Other interesting ranks are Tennessee at 28 and Missouri at 35. Neither has a single top-50 win. Texas is at 25 and has a marginal case to be ranked in the AP, but Missouri does not.

Wake is up to 29th and is our best win by this metric. Although Duke is currently favored by ESPN for some reason, I could easily see Wake winning out to 9-3 and getting AP-ranked.

 

[stinger78]

Colley's ranking system now has enough data to make sense. We are down to 15th, which is exactly the same rank as the AP.
Other interesting ranks are Tennessee at 28 and Missouri at 35. Neither has a single top-50 win. Texas is at 25 and has a marginal case to be ranked in the AP, but Missouri does not.

Wake is up to 29th and is our best win by this metric. Although Duke is currently favored by ESPN for some reason, I could easily see Wake winning out to 9-3 and getting AP-ranked.

I really don’t feel bad about being ranked 15 based on how we’ve played the last couple of games. If we continue that, we’ll lose these last two and it will all make sense.

If we can pull it together like we did last year and beat Pitt this weekend, we’ll move back up. However, once vacated at this point in the season it ca be hard to move back up.

 

[stinger78]

I would say after today's polls the one team that is likely too high is Texas. UGA destroyed them. If you want JUM and North Texas above Tennessee, fine by me, They all are in the 20 or lower area. I personally think Tennessee would beat both of them handily. Recall how well Boise State did in last season CFP as a home team. Illinois, Washington, Iowa, Arizona and Louisville are in the same "it does not matter boat." At least Tenn has only lost to actually good teams (AL, OU, UGA). Mizzu's losses are to AL, Vandy and A&M, again all good teams.

The bottom 5 teams can be shuffled however you want and it matters not in the Big Picture! No one is getting screwed. All teams in that range have bad losses less thee SEC teams unless you think AL, UGA, OU, A&M and Vandy are bad teams.

The issue I have is what if you put a very consistently good Wake team in the top 20? That gives GT a top 20 win. Beat Pitt and now we have two. That’s enough resume for us to be placed nearer the top 10. It all matters at some point.

 

[cpf2001]

I think GT's chance at an at-large depended on either being 12-0 before the ACCCG or being 11-1 and missing the ACCCG. Now that we control our own destiny there, the only ranking aspects that matter are: higher than G5 champs (I think this one is pretty safe even in a 9-3 crazy backdoor scenario into the ACCG + a win there), and "home or away in first round of playoffs". I think if we win out we'll land outside of the bye range but in the home game range since that UGA win will be at exactly the right time to catapult us over some 2-loss teams.

 

[Root4GT]

The issue I have is what if you put a very consistently good Wake team in the top 20? That gives GT a top 20 win. Beat Pitt and now we have two. That’s enough resume for us to be placed nearer the top 10. It all matters at some point.

Wake's issue was their 42-7 loss to FSU on 1 November. That was the height of a bad loss at a bad time! That left a very bad impression 4 days before the first CFP ranking. I hope they end up 9-3 and ranked!

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Wake's issue was their 42-7 loss to FSU on 1 November. That was the height of a bad loss at a bad time! That left a very bad impression 4 days before the first CFP ranking. I hope they end up 9-3 and ranked!

Its just all weird. The same FSU team that beat Alabama 31-17. We get dinged for having to come back from 11 points down against a crap team in the 4th but A&M has to come back against a crap SC team and people say how great they are

its a weird year

 

[Root4GT]

Its just all weird. The same FSU team that beat Alabama 31-17. We get dinged for having to come back from 11 points down against a crap team in the 4th but A&M has to come back against a crap SC team and people say how great they are

its a weird year

USC-E is not having a good year by any measure. Their losses are to: Vandy, Missou, LSU, OU, Bama, Ole Miss, and A&M. Combined those teams are 57-14. That actually matters. Pray that Clemson beats them this year,

 

[forensicbuzz]

The issue I have is what if you put a very consistently good Wake team in the top 20? That gives GT a top 20 win. Beat Pitt and now we have two. That’s enough resume for us to be placed nearer the top 10. It all matters at some point.

Pitt is not ranked anymore. (someone tell him)

 

[forensicbuzz]

I think GT's chance at an at-large depended on either being 12-0 before the ACCCG or being 11-1 and missing the ACCCG. Now that we control our own destiny there, the only ranking aspects that matter are: higher than G5 champs (I think this one is pretty safe even in a 9-3 crazy backdoor scenario into the ACCG + a win there), and "home or away in first round of playoffs". I think if we win out we'll land outside of the bye range but in the home game range since that UGA win will be at exactly the right time to catapult us over some 2-loss teams.

If we beat Pitt and uga, we should be ahead of Ole Miss, TT, Oregon, BYU, but we won't. I'd bet we would be 9 or 10 and playing in someone else's home stadium. They don't want a CFP game in a 55k seat stadium, regardless of how classic or how much history it has. They also don't want to give that advantage away to an ACC team. If we don't play better on both sides of the ball (uga will be the best defense we've played this year and Pitt is nothing to sneeze at), we'll never know.

 

[stinger78]

Its just all weird. The same FSU team that beat Alabama 31-17. We get dinged for having to come back from 11 points down against a crap team in the 4th but A&M has to come back against a crap SC team and people say how great they are

its a weird year

This is not weird, it’s The Narrative at work. Their close wins are better than our close wins and their close losses are better than our close losses.

 

[Root4GT]

If we beat Pitt and uga, we should be ahead of Ole Miss, TT, Oregon, BYU, but we won't. I'd bet we would be 9 or 10 and playing in someone else's home stadium. They don't want a CFP game in a 55k seat stadium, regardless of how classic or how much history it has. They also don't want to give that advantage away to an ACC team. If we don't play better on both sides of the ball (uga will be the best defense we've played this year and Pitt is nothing to sneeze at), we'll never know.

A home game was played on the Blue Turf in Boise last year! Also played in AZ St's home stadium with a 53,600 capacity last year as well. Of course the rules were changed during the offseason to keep that from happening again.

 

[cpf2001]

If we beat Pitt and uga, we should be ahead of Ole Miss, TT, Oregon, BYU, but we won't. I'd bet we would be 9 or 10 and playing in someone else's home stadium. They don't want a CFP game in a 55k seat stadium, regardless of how classic or how much history it has. They also don't want to give that advantage away to an ACC team. If we don't play better on both sides of the ball (uga will be the best defense we've played this year and Pitt is nothing to sneeze at), we'll never know.

TTU and BYU are 60k and 62k and neither of them have that much media love. Go to Lubbock or Provo instead of Atlanta for a worse-but-ten-percent-bigger stadium? That's not the no-brainer you think it is. (Oregon also is not over 60k, but they're more of a media darling than the other two.)

 

[cpf2001]

I also think a TTU/BYU championship game loser falls out of a first-round hosting spot regardless. But especially in favor of a conference champ with a top-5 win.

obviously, gotta fix the D first

 

[MidtownJacket]

This is not weird, it’s The Narrative at work. Their close wins are better than our close wins and their close losses are better than our close losses.

No.. it’s TheNarrative™

 

[forensicbuzz]

TTU and BYU are 60k and 62k and neither of them have that much media love. Go to Lubbock or Provo instead of Atlanta for a worse-but-ten-percent-bigger stadium? That's not the no-brainer you think it is. (Oregon also is not over 60k, but they're more of a media darling than the other two.)

For this reason, TT is 9, Oregon is 10 BYU is 11, and GT is 12. Oxford is the same size. Okay, I concede. But, we'll still not host an opening round game.

 

[cpf2001]

For this reason, TT is 9, Oregon is 10 BYU is 11, and GT is 12. Oxford is the same size. Okay, I concede. But, we'll still not host an opening round game.

I'm not following how TT/Oregon end up 9/10 here. Is that you personal projected seeding, vs current ranking positions?

I don't think the ACC/Big12 crack the top 4 regardless of who loses in the SEC/Big 10 champ games, I think they'll just move teams from those conferences around there.

And I don't really think GT could jump ND, I think they want that as a home game. But I could see them sneaking into the 8 spot if they win out. I don't think the Big 12 loser will stay top-10, especially if it's BYU. If Big 12 winner + ND have byes, then need to jump all but one of SEC/Big 10 third teams. Probably not gonna jump a 1-loss Oregon even with a big win. So then it's the third-highest-ranked SEC team you're trying to jump. So out of UGA/Ole Miss/OU/Alabama can you jump 3 of them? UGA you have the recent head-to-head. OU/Bama don't have remaining opportunities for big wins so the UGA win and ACCCG win in back to back weeks could be enough. Everyone has a lot of questions about GT right now, but it's possible to answer those questions.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I'm not following how TT/Oregon end up 9/10 here. Is that you personal projected seeding, vs current ranking positions?

I don't think the ACC/Big12 crack the top 4 regardless of who loses in the SEC/Big 10 champ games, I think they'll just move teams from those conferences around there.

And I don't really think GT could jump ND, I think they want that as a home game. But I could see them sneaking into the 8 spot if they win out. I don't think the Big 12 loser will stay top-10, especially if it's BYU. If Big 12 winner + ND have byes, then need to jump all but one of SEC/Big 10 third teams. Probably not gonna jump a 1-loss Oregon even with a big win. So then it's the third-highest-ranked SEC team you're trying to jump. So out of UGA/Ole Miss/OU/Alabama can you jump 3 of them? UGA you have the recent head-to-head. OU/Bama don't have remaining opportunities for big wins so the UGA win and ACCCG win in back to back weeks could be enough. Everyone has a lot of questions about GT right now, but it's possible to answer those questions.

I was just making up crap to put the smaller stadiums in the 9-12 range. When I saw Ole Miss was only 63k I gave up the game. I also forgot all about the G6 winner (probably JMU). It was all tongue-in-cheek. I thought that would be obvious from the back-and-forth. Should have used emojis. Sorry.

 

[jeffgt14]

Big 12 might be getting shafted more than any other conference. If TTU, BYU, and Utah arguably have the same, if not better, resumes than Ole Miss, OU, and Bama. One conference is going to freely get 5 teams in the playoffs, the other is likely going to have their championship game loser get sent home.

 

[bke1984]

For this reason, TT is 9, Oregon is 10 BYU is 11, and GT is 12. Oxford is the same size. Okay, I concede. But, we'll still not host an opening round game.

If we win out will should be no lower than 8th.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Big 12 might be getting shafted more than any other conference. If TTU, BYU, and Utah arguably have the same, if not better, resumes than Ole Miss, OU, and Bama. One conference is going to freely get 5 teams in the playoffs, the other is likely going to have their championship game loser get sent home.

Got to thinking back. Was it Utah or Utah State that tore the hide off of Nick Saban’s Alabama team one year in a bowl game? That was the year we saw SEC spin turn on a dime. They went from “teams out west don’t measure up to the sec” to “SEC teams don’t really take bowl games all that seriously.”

That’s why, to this day, I think people who say the ACC needs to dominate before we can develop a good PR campaign get it completely wrong. The SEC has never stopped spinning the narrative, good years or bad years, win or lose. Fake it till you make it, works.