Program in Decline-Why?

[MWBATL]

I believe our baseball program is having serious problems and is suffering a decline the last few years. Specifically:

1. We just won 32 games, the fewest since 2007 (also 32 wins)

2. Unlike 2007 (which was sandwiched around excellent years) this was the sixth year in a row of declining win totals (47-42-38-37-37-32)

3. Our pitching was atrocious, ranking 11th out of 14 ACC teams (only worse were VPI&SU, Pitt and Wake Forest). Even Boston College had better pitching stats than GT did this year. The previous worst ACC performance was in 2007 when we finished 11th out of 12 teams.

4. Our BEST pitching record in this last 4 year stretch has been 8th out of 14 teams in 2014. Our other finished were:

a. 11th out of 14 in 2015

b. 8th out of 14 in 2014

c. 9th out of 12 in 2013

d. 10th out of 12 in 2012

5. Prior to this pitching drought the last 4 years, we were 3rd in the ACC in pitching in 2010 (47 wins) and 2nd in 2011 (42 wins). Certainly good results.

6. One of our promising minor league pitching alumni prospects (Jakob Esch with the AA Jacksonville Suns as a starter) never pitched as a starter for GT and saw only very limited appearances in relief in his freshman year. He was used exclusively as apposition player in 2010 and 2011. Yet pro scouts saw enough from him to draft him and send him into their system as a pitcher. Why didn’t we?

7. Brandon Gold was easily one of our three most effective pitchers in 2015. Yet he did not pitch at all for us in 2014, We weren’t that good or deep in pitching, so why did he not pitch for us last year as well as this?

8. Our WHIP this year was 1.65, which was the second worst all time WHIP since 2006 (only 2007 was worse at 1.68). As recently as 2011 our WHIP was a very good 1.30.

9. Our “batting average against” was 0.275 this year, the highest since 2008 and 21 points higher than last year’s 0.254

10.This is the first time in history that I can find that our opponents out hit us on the season (0.275 vs 0.273). Please note these are not ACC only stats, these are full season stats, so this includes games against some pretty weak teams. Within the league, we were badly out hit, as our team BA in league games was 0.251 while we yielded an opponent’s batting average of 0.287

11.Our hitting, normally a strength, has also been declining, especially in the last two years. In 2014 we were 10th of 14 ACC teams in runs scored in ACC games, We were 10th of 14 in HR’s. Our BA was higher (4th in the league) but we were terrible at scoring runs despite this fact. In 2015 we fell to 8th in BA, and were 10th again in runs per ACC game and 11th in HR’s in league games.


All of this data leads me to suggest that we have a serious problem with declining results. Our fielding is solid (3rd out of 14 teams) but our pitching has been terrible and our hitting not much better.


Something is amiss on the Flats and we are quickly declining from our glory days. It is starting to look a lot like basketball to me in terms of results, where it may soon be the case that an NCAA bid, even with a marginal team, will be celebrated as a huge success.


I am not close enough to know if it is recruiting, or coaching (the pitching coach? The head coach?) or what the explanation is, but the results above are facts and are not very pleasant facts. If this were a one off bad year (as occurred in 2007) I would not be saying anything, But it isn’t, it is a 4 year trend now (at least….one can argue it is a 6 year trend) , and makes me wonder what we are doing wrong.


To me, the years of the early 2000’s and prior were wonderful years. Our teams bashed and bludgeoned other teams to death. We were routinely in the NCAA’s and usually in the discussion for Top Eight seeds. I went to Omaha to watch us play in 2006. We are but a shadow of the program that we were, and that saddens me, and makes me ask these questions. What has gone wrong?

 

[awbuzz]

You nailed it when you said pitching... And inferred lack of clutch hitting on a consistent basis.

 

[MWBATL]

You nailed it when you said pitching... And inferred lack of clutch hitting on a consistent basis.

I know, but with our location, our baseball history, being in the premier baseball conference in the country (along with the Pac 12 and SEC) we should be MUCH better. Any idea as to why we are in decline (and yes, I know it is really easy to blame the HC and say "Fire Danny Hall" but there's got to be more to it than that, doesn't there?)

 

[JorgeJonas]

I can't say I follow the team that closely, but it would be helpful to know how many - if any - recruits were drafted and went pro. It's a strange thing in college baseball that you want to recruit well, but perhaps not too well.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Thanks for the post. I'm going to think about this for a few days and drink a few more beers; unfortunately I think today was the last game of the season for us. The top reasons for our long term decline in my opinion from what I've already written:

• Pitching - we get projects who we develop and then they bolt to the pros
• Elite players go in the draft rather than come to GT
• Too much in state focus in recruiting, we need to go further abroad to get elite players who will stick with GT. We have, sadly, the best program over the last 5 years in the state of Georgia I think.

The problem with these "reasons" is that I can't understand is why these problems seem to be affecting GT more than other ACC teams.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

One of the best baseball posts of the year IMHO from @awbuzz:


"Part of the issue with getting the "talent" into GT is the grade and test scores requirement. Along with the that, you then have the degree options and class requirements at GT. (yes that horse has been beaten for years, but it do hold relevancy to the situation.) But let's face the truth, many of the players (just like others in the age bracket) want to take a path of least resistance.

Regarding scholarship funding. You are correct that there are NOT enough baseball scholarships to give a full ride to each player. I know that some players get a "full" ride as long as they maintain the Hope Scholarship, i.e. the player gets a partial tuition covered and then a housing allotment along with food access. (the above is basically as described to me by one of the players parents.)

Hall (and Morris before) have to overcome these hurdles (grades/tests/scholly %) plus the fact that many of our recruits are drafted by MLB. Some of those drafted may "bite" on a $20K, $50K or $100K signing bonus for some that is enough to go directly to the pros (minors) and bypass college. (side note: most MLB teams will write into the players initial contract that they will cover the cost of college if the player "doesn't make it". With that my understanding is that less than 5% - might have been 1% - of those players take advantage of that opportunity. Reason being they are "getting on' with their life, someone is pregnant, etc.)

That leaves those that do sign. with us. Of those, obviously some get hurt (ex. D Waller). Some don't pan out / develop. Others develope then opt to leave with eligibility left after their 3rd year out of H.S. because they have some "leverage" for a higher signing bonus with the possibility of them returning to school for another year or two. (The "studs" more often than not don't play their 4th year in college.)

IMO, pitchers are the most difficult to get and develop of those that do go to college. With that, pitching has been our downfall the last few years. Yes we've had a few to do well, but we haven't had those 3 - 4 starters that would be the #1 or #2 on most other teams. Without at least two (preferably three or four) go to starters we've pitched by committee and it shows against to tougher competition.

While we do normally get good recruiting classes, bottom line is GT doesn't get enough "studs" -especially pitchers - to simply reload each year mainly due to the academic environment. With that said, I do think that GT has done very well over the last 25 - 30 years. For that I'm thankful that we can be disappointed with a 32 win season. Especially considering our strength of schedule each yea

(If a moderator wants to move this and other related comments in this thread to the "Program in Decline-Why?" thread it would make sense.)"

 

[MWBATL]

Interesting. And I very much appreciate the thoughts and insights in these posts. The one thing that does confuse me however is why some other fairly good colleges (Virginia comes to mind immediately) have the same academic restrictions (or at least, I think they do) and less other attributes (no program history prior to the current coach and poor weather)...yet they have had stellar pitching for the last few years under the current coaching regime. It does suggest that coaching (whether via recruiting or instruction once on campus) may be a heavy factor....or am I missing something?

UNC has had great pitching, but for all we know their baseball players may be following gin the footsteps of their basketball and football programs, and therefore have fewer academic issues. We all know FSU, Miami, Louisville and Clemson have fewer academic restrictions, so their success makes sense under this theory. There may be a lot to what @awbuzz has said........it would also help explain why Morris left GT for Miami (did he see handwriting on the wall?)

If all this is true, it may mean our golden era is over and we may have to adjust our expectations. In other words, we may be Duke. I still don't understand why UVa can succeed when we cannot though....

 

[awbuzz]

May just be the recruiting of the pitchers. Coach DH was willing to let his long time friend go - (pitching coach Kinkelaar) in the past due to "recruiting". Might be the same with Coach Howell. I don't know if that is the case or not. But face it, some times there may be 3 kids we're looking to get but can only take 1 of them and we either -
chose the wrong one, i.e. the one that doesn't blossom into the stud,
the one that we want first doesn't want GT fro whatever reason including the person recruiting them,
gets injured,
etc.

Remember that out of say 100 guys we want to recruit that -
40 may get culled immediately due to H.S. Grades, etc.
and
30 of those remaining want to choose the 'easiest" path.

That leaves us with 30 to "work on" coming to GT and we still have to contend with MLB and other schools that want them too.

Maybe someone at GT or a GT grad can create a button to be pushed to make it all happen! (After all "we can do that"!)

 

[Squints]

I believe our baseball program is having serious problems and is suffering a decline the last few years. Specifically:

I've got some free time so I'll offer my thoughts. I'm gonna try to address each of your points individually so consider this your warning that this might be pretty long haha. Short version is I think decline is too strong a word. We're definitely in a bit of a down period but I'd argue it's mainly bad luck with injuries and attrition compounded by bad timing of roster construction due to equipment rule changes. I'd compare the past coupe of seasons to the 2010-2014 of the football team. Much closer than the record and appears and it could turn around real quick with a couple good breaks.

1. We just won 32 games, the fewest since 2007 (also 32 wins)

2. Unlike 2007 (which was sandwiched around excellent years) this was the sixth year in a row of declining win totals (47-42-38-37-37-32)

I don't think this is a good case. The win totals you're citing are buoyed by tournament appearances. I've said it more than a few times that I love watching tournament baseball but I don't think tournament results are necessarily indicative of how good a team is. Baseball's too fluky for that. Look at the regular season wins. The past four seasons we've won in the neighborhood of 32 games in the regular season. So we're on par with what we've done since 2012. It's not great but I wouldn't call it evidence of an ongoing decline.

3. Our pitching was atrocious, ranking 11th out of 14 ACC teams (only worse were VPI&SU, Pitt and Wake Forest). Even Boston College had better pitching stats than GT did this year. The previous worst ACC performance was in 2007 when we finished 11th out of 12 teams.

No argument. Our pitching was real bad. Though I'd argue we had the top end with King, Gold, and Ryan. Just zero depth behind them.

4. Our BEST pitching record in this last 4 year stretch has been 8th out of 14 teams in 2014. Our other finished were:

a. 11th out of 14 in 2015

b. 8th out of 14 in 2014

c. 9th out of 12 in 2013

d. 10th out of 12 in 2012

5. Prior to this pitching drought the last 4 years, we were 3rd in the ACC in pitching in 2010 (47 wins) and 2nd in 2011 (42 wins). Certainly good results.

And this brings me to the meat of my argument. What's the difference between 2010/2011 and the past few years? Injuries. We have absolutely been killed by injuries. And not just pulled muscles but injuries that take players out for over a year and they never come back the same. And the guys that got hurt? Guys we were hoping would throw a major amount of innings. Now consider that it's difficult to recruit to these kind of injuries because unlike football there's big delay between when you sign your class and when they show up. It takes time for reinforcements to show up. Those kind of injuries screw for multiple years and we've had a ton of them.

Look at this:

• 2012 - DeAndre Smelter blows out his shoulder while Devin Stantion, Matt Grimes, and Luke Bard blow out their elbows. Grimes was in the rotation, likely to be joined by Smelter, and Stanton was also an outside contender for a rotation spot but guaranteed bullpen contributor. Bard was major piece of the bullpen who was moved into the rotation because of those injuries and then he goes down. FR Cole Pitts and Josh Heddinger, SO Dusty Issacs, and Jake Davies(!!!) are forced to start games.
• 2013 - Grimes has a set back rehabbing from his elbow and misses the whole year. The incoming recruiting class was small and didn't have many pitchers because they all signed their LOIs before everyone's arms fell apart the year before so there weren't any reinforcements (Sam Clay and Jonathan King. Dat's it). Smelter and Stanton show they're not the same pitchers they were. Alex Cruz regresses. Pitts, Issacs, and Heddinger progress but are still in roles they're either not ideally suited or prepared for. We're forced to use Daniel Palka and Zane Evans out of the bullpen because we just don't have healthy effective bodies out there.
• 2014 - Freshman reinforcements finally arrive for the pitching staff. Lot of incoming pitchers. We're good to go. Except that now Cole Pitts (who was looking like he was putting it together) blows out his elbow and has surgery and Jonathan King hurts his shoulder and only makes 4 starts at the beginning of the year. Bad injuries but not to the extend of 2012 That's 2/3rds of the starting rotation. Fortunately for us, Devin Stanton pulls some magic out of his hat, Heddinger progresses, Grimes bounces back to be decent, Clay and Issacs progress, and Parr comes out of nowhere. We got very lucky here because if it wasn't for these guys it'd be 2012 all over again with younger pitchers pressed into service.
• 2015 - Now for this year we lose two guys I'm not sure anyone expected to lose in Clay and Heddinger and we lost Grimes and Issacs to graduation. Also not many incoming freshman pitchers. The younger pitchers on campus are forced into roles early. So little reinforcements and not a lot of experience but not to the extent of 2013 (see a pattern?). Combine that with Cole Pitts being a shell of himself, Stanton revealing last year was a fluke and surgery really did ruin him, regression from Parr, and a less than powerful than normal offense (talk about that later) and you get what you get.

So this is what I mean by bad luck . We've been absolutely snake bit on the pitching mound. You'd be hard pressed to find a program that could withstand that kind of rash of arm injuries. It takes time to come back from that. Time for fresh arms to show up and for the dead weight scholarships to come open (blunt but true). That takes a while when the injuries come in the early part of a players's career which they have. When we had a window to bounce back we got hit with more injuries and unexpected attrition on top of that. Not much you can do about it.

6. One of our promising minor league pitching alumni prospects (Jakob Esch with the AA Jacksonville Suns as a starter) never pitched as a starter for GT and saw only very limited appearances in relief in his freshman year. He was used exclusively as apposition player in 2010 and 2011. Yet pro scouts saw enough from him to draft him and send him into their system as a pitcher. Why didn’t we?

I think you're stretching on this one. If you've got an arm but not much of a hitter some teams will take a chance at converting you to a pticher. And sometimes it works out. Some guys just respond to the professional coaching very well. It's worth nothing that the Marlins, although I trashed them last week, are very good at identifying and developing talent. One of the best. They could have been watching him since high school. And as you pointed out yourself, the pitching was pretty good while he was here and he was a very productive SS. Not much to criticize here if you ask me.

7. Brandon Gold was easily one of our three most effective pitchers in 2015. Yet he did not pitch at all for us in 2014, We weren’t that good or deep in pitching, so why did he not pitch for us last year as well as this?

I don't think you give the pitching enough credit last year. It was pretty solid. Who was he going to replace? The offense was a much bigger issue and we needed him there. Not to mention he was only a FR and simply may not have been ready to pitch at this level. Most FR aren't. I think you're reaching again.

8. Our WHIP this year was 1.65, which was the second worst all time WHIP since 2006 (only 2007 was worse at 1.68). As recently as 2011 our WHIP was a very good 1.30.

9. Our “batting average against” was 0.275 this year, the highest since 2008 and 21 points higher than last year’s 0.254

Yup. Pitching was real bad.

 

[Squints]

10.This is the first time in history that I can find that our opponents out hit us on the season (0.275 vs 0.273). Please note these are not ACC only stats, these are full season stats, so this includes games against some pretty weak teams. Within the league, we were badly out hit, as our team BA in league games was 0.251 while we yielded an opponent’s batting average of 0.287

11.Our hitting, normally a strength, has also been declining, especially in the last two years. In 2014 we were 10th of 14 ACC teams in runs scored in ACC games, We were 10th of 14 in HR’s. Our BA was higher (4th in the league) but we were terrible at scoring runs despite this fact. In 2015 we fell to 8th in BA, and were 10th again in runs per ACC game and 11th in HR’s in league games.

This is where I think the rule changes have boned us. I remember hearing fans complain about how you can't win with only homers at this level for years about our teams. Even moreso when they changed the bats. So what did Danny Hall do? Change the type of players he recruited. Focusing on contact first hitters who don't necessarily have much pop that can play defense. Just when these players have gotten here with playing time they change the equipment again. The ball this time. So we've got a team full of slap hitters in environment where power is a weapon again. The roster is going to have to adjust back. Throw in the injury to our best hitter this year halfway through the season too. That didn't help.

Something is amiss on the Flats and we are quickly declining from our glory days. It is starting to look a lot like basketball to me in terms of results, where it may soon be the case that an NCAA bid, even with a marginal team, will be celebrated as a huge success.

I don't follow basketball but I think this is a bad comparison. Wasn't the basketball team completely embarrassing themselves out there? The baseball team isn't. And an NCAA bid should be treated as a success. That's all you can reasonably expect when it comes to tournament baseball. Only 64 teams get to go. Don't take it for granted.

I am not close enough to know if it is recruiting, or coaching (the pitching coach? The head coach?) or what the explanation is, but the results above are facts and are not very pleasant facts. If this were a one off bad year (as occurred in 2007) I would not be saying anything, But it isn’t, it is a 4 year trend now (at least….one can argue it is a 6 year trend) , and makes me wonder what we are doing wrong.

I don't think it's coaching. Danny Hall has put together some of the best coaching jobs in the country two of the past four years (2012 and 2014) and it's too early to tell with the pitching coach. I want to see Hammel get to work with and develop a full class of pitchers that he recruited for 3-4 years before I pass judgement. And I think I've demonstrated that it's not so much a trend or that we're doing anything wrong other than getting hurt.

To me, the years of the early 2000’s and prior were wonderful years. Our teams bashed and bludgeoned other teams to death. We were routinely in the NCAA’s and usually in the discussion for Top Eight seeds. I went to Omaha to watch us play in 2006. We are but a shadow of the program that we were, and that saddens me, and makes me ask these questions. What has gone wrong?

Well this going to sound rude and I don't mean it to be but maybe you're spoiled. I think that's a problem with a lot of Georgia Tech baseball fans. IIRC those years are far and away the best in our history and we sustained that level of success for almost 20 years. You're can't do that forever and are gonna have some down periods. Not to mention the conference is harder than it was at that time. It's not like we've dropped off a cliff here and are a bottom feeder now. We haven't had years like the ones you mention but they're hardly bad years. And I think we're closer to returning to consistent 40 win seasons than going the other way and consistently missing the tournament. We just have to hope the guys we have and the guys coming in next fall (mostly pitchers) can break this injury cycle and stay healthy. If we can do that I think we'll be in good shape.

 

[MWBATL]

Just wanted to say I appreciated the thoughts and input from everyone on this board on the topic. Squints is obviously more optimistic, I am more pessimistic, and I would be delighted if Squints is 100% right and I am 100% wrong! @awbuzz is also making solid points....I guess time will tell us what gives....

Oh, and yes I AM spoiled (and proud of it!)...LOL

 

[TechTravis]

Someone talked about scholarship money. Isn't there a nationwide limit on the amount of scholarship $ each team can allocate?

 

[Squints]

Do you mean across all sports or just baseball? I know baseball has a limit of 11.7 total scholarships but I don't know the deal with the actual dollar figures. That could be a big deal.

 

[TechTravis]

Just baseball.

 

[awbuzz]

My understanding is 1 scholarship equales tuition, fees, books, etc. Regardless in state or out of state tuition. I.e. doesn't matter towards the scholarship count, but does make a difference in dollars spent.

 

[Squints]

Hmm that could certainly make it more difficult to get out of state students and would appear to give an advantage to public schools over more expensive private ones. Would love to see some official comments on this.

 

[CTJacket]

This is where I think the rule changes have boned us. I remember hearing fans complain about how you can't win with only homers at this level for years about our teams. Even moreso when they changed the bats. So what did Danny Hall do? Change the type of players he recruited. Focusing on contact first hitters who don't necessarily have much pop that can play defense. Just when these players have gotten here with playing time they change the equipment again. The ball this time. So we've got a team full of slap hitters in environment where power is a weapon again. The roster is going to have to adjust back. Throw in the injury to our best hitter this year halfway through the season too. That didn't help.



I don't follow basketball but I think this is a bad comparison. Wasn't the basketball team completely embarrassing themselves out there? The baseball team isn't. And an NCAA bid should be treated as a success. That's all you can reasonably expect when it comes to tournament baseball. Only 64 teams get to go. Don't take it for granted.



I don't think it's coaching. Danny Hall has put together some of the best coaching jobs in the country two of the past four years (2012 and 2014) and it's too early to tell with the pitching coach. I want to see Hammel get to work with and develop a full class of pitchers that he recruited for 3-4 years before I pass judgement. And I think I've demonstrated that it's not so much a trend or that we're doing anything wrong other than getting hurt.



Well this going to sound rude and I don't mean it to be but maybe you're spoiled. I think that's a problem with a lot of Georgia Tech baseball fans. IIRC those years are far and away the best in our history and we sustained that level of success for almost 20 years. You're can't do that forever and are gonna have some down periods. Not to mention the conference is harder than it was at that time. It's not like we've dropped off a cliff here and are a bottom feeder now. We haven't had years like the ones you mention but they're hardly bad years. And I think we're closer to returning to consistent 40 win seasons than going the other way and consistently missing the tournament. We just have to hope the guys we have and the guys coming in next fall (mostly pitchers) can break this injury cycle and stay healthy. If we can do that I think we'll be in good shape.

Wow - GREAT posts. Thank you for this.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

First, here are the RPIs which show a program in decline …… but only for this year. And as @awbuzz said, the wins or in this case the RPIs are heavily skewed by end of season play. At the end of the season you play better teams and that helps the RPI a lot.
2010-2011 11
2011-2012 10
2012-2013 19
2013-2014 20
2014-2015 38 and dropping

Back in post #5 I said I thought these were the reasons for our poor play this year.

• Pitching - we get projects who we develop and then they bolt to the pros. I will not beat up on pitching any more. But that is by far the biggest reason IMHO.
• Elite players go in the draft rather than come to GT. I think I showed that is the case in the post https://gtswarm.com/threads/2015-mlb-draft-8-10-june.6859/ not only for GT but all colleges. The top 100 HS players just don’t go to college. But there is selection bias, and we need to figure out how to get the Kel Johnsons who want to go to a college and thus aren’t drafted.
• Too much in state focus in recruiting, we need to go further abroad to get elite players who will stick with GT. We have the best program over the last 5 years in the state of Georgia I think. For this one, I can see how the scholarship limit really hurts. The rest of the discussion really put this in focus about how it may be a reality for public schools. If you are out of state GT is about 3 times more expensive. Thus if you only get 1/3 of a scholarship, that really hurts. In the post on the MLB draft , I think I showed that we are the elite school for baseball in Georgia. Given the “small” size of Georgia compared to Florida or Texas or California, I can see why the elite schools in those states do well.

But thinking about it, I wanted to add one more:

• Youth. What really bothers me is how BAD we were on the road, so I wanted to blame it on youth. 9-13 away, including the season defining disaster of the BC sweep. Yes we had away appearances (I refuse to say we played) at our toughest series of Louisville and Miami, but not counting those we were 9-7. 2-2 at neutral sites. At home we were pretty good … 21-8.

• But looking at the roster that doesn’t hold up too well since only Bailey and Kel were Fr with significant contributions. But from sophomores, we had Ryan, Innis, Peurifoy, Pabst, Gold, Justus contributing a lot. I don’t know the cause, but we didn’t travel well.

Next year will all depend on how our pitchers, both King and Ryan as well as incoming FR, are drafted. Whether we have a program in decline or just a bad year, only time the draft will tell.