Production from last year

slugboy

slugboy

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Teams tend to do well when their playmakers come back, and have a hard time replacing that production when they leave or graduate. We lost a lot of production from 2018; an unusual amount.

We didn't pass much, but TaQuon had 82% of our passing yardage, 71% of our passing TDs, and all of our interceptions:
Code: 
                                                          Pass
Rk            Player  Cmp Att   Pct Yds  Y/A AY/A TD Int  Rate
1    TaQuon Marshall   48 109  44.0 900  8.3  7.5  5   4 121.2
2      Tobias Oliver    7  16  43.8 167 10.4 12.9  2   0 172.7
3       James Graham    1   1 100.0  22 22.0 22.0  0   0 284.8
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/2/2019.

Rushing, we lost 1642 yards of rushing from TaQuon, Benson, Clinton Lynch, and Qua Searcy, and 18 of our touchdowns. We had 28 touchdowns from other players. We lost 39% of our yards and 39% of our rushing points.
Passing, we lost 57% of our receptions, with Stewart being our biggest receiver, and Lynch and Searcy #4 and #4. We lost 86% of our receiving touchdowns.

Code: 
                                     Rush            Rece              Scri
Rk                Player Att Yds  Avg  TD Rec Yds  Avg TD Plays Yds  Avg TD
1        TaQuon Marshall 216 971  4.5  11   1  22 22.0  0   217 993  4.6 11
2          Tobias Oliver 152 876  5.8                  12   152 876  5.8 12
3           Jordan Mason 108 659  6.1   7   1   2  2.0  0   109 661  6.1  7
4           Jerry Howard 107 564  5.3   5   4  50 12.5  0   111 614  5.5  5
5          Nate Cottrell  46 362  7.9   4   3  12  4.0  0    49 374  7.6  4
6          Clinton Lynch  41 206  5.0   2   7 209 29.9  2    48 415  8.6  4
7             Qua Searcy  35 349 10.0   3   9 247 27.4  1    44 596 13.5  4
8        KirVonte Benson  15 116  7.7   2   1  -2 -2.0  0    16 114  7.1  2
9           James Graham   5  27  5.4                   0     5  27  5.4  0
10        Joseph Marcina   5  17  3.4                   0     5  17  3.4  0
11        Omahri Jarrett   4  47 11.8                   0     4  47 11.8  0
12      Christian Malloy   4  27  6.8                   0     4  27  6.8  0
13          Xavier Gantt   2   2  1.0                   0     2   2  1.0  0
14            Jalen Camp   1   3  3.0   0  11 186 16.9  0    12 189 15.8  0
15          Melvin Davis   1   3  3.0                   0     1   3  3.0  0
16   Pressley Harvin III   1  -1 -1.0                   0     1  -1 -1.0  0
17          Antwan Owens   1  -2 -2.0                   0     1  -2 -2.0  0
18                           Brad Stewart  15 268 17.9  3    15 268 17.9  3
19                         Malachi Carter   3  56 18.7  1     3  56 18.7  1
20                        Stephen Dolphus   1  39 39.0  0     1  39 39.0  0
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/2/2019.

We lost at least 40% of our tackles, 65% of our tackles for loss, and 60% of our sacks:
Code: 
                                            Tack               Def            Fumb
Rk                  Player Solo Ast Tot Loss  Sk Int Yds  Avg TD PD   FR Yds TD FF
1             Malik Rivera   42  26  68  0.5 0.0   2  84 42.0  0                 1
2            Jalen Johnson   38  27  65  6.5                    2.0           1  0
3           Brant Mitchell   35  29  64  5.5                 2.0                 1
4          Tariq Carpenter   35  20  55  1.5 0.0   2   6  3.0  0              5  1
5           Charlie Thomas   29  19  48  3.0                 1.0  1           3  1
6        Anree Saint-Amour   29  18  47 12.0 4.0   2  19  9.5  1              1  3
7              David Curry   28  19  47  0.5 0.5   1   0  0.0  0  0        1  1  0
8               Ajani Kerr   31   7  38  0.0                 0.0  2           1  0
9           Desmond Branch   17  20  37  5.0 0.5   1   2  2.0  0                 1
10          Lamont Simmons   22   7  29  1.0 0.0   1   0  0.0  0                 1
11    Kyle Cerge-Henderson    9  18  27  4.0                    2.0           1  0
12           Jaytlin Askew   17   9  26  1.0                 0.0                 1
13        Victor Alexander   17   8  25  2.0                    1.0           1  1
14            Tre Swilling   18   6  24  1.5 1.0   1   0  0.0  0              6  1
15           Brandon Adams   12  12  24  5.0                    0.0           1  2
16            Kaleb Oliver    9  12  21  2.5 0.0   1  25 25.0  0              2  1
17            Antwan Owens   13   8  21  0.0                    0.0           1  0
18   Bruce Jordan-Swilling   13   7  20  0.0                    0.0           1  0
19      Christian Campbell   11   8  19  2.5                 2.0                 1
20          Juanyeh Thomas   11   4  15  0.0 0.0   1  95 95.0  1  1           1  0
21            Quez Jackson    9   6  15  0.0                                   0.0
22        Jaquan Henderson    8   4  12  0.0                                   0.0
23         Jordan Domineck    4   1   5  0.0                                   0.0
24           T.K. Chimedza    1   3   4  0.0                                   0.0
25     Brentavious Glanton    1   3   4  0.0                                   0.0
26            Chris Martin    2   2   4  0.0                                   0.0
27           Zamari Walton    3   1   4  0.0                 0.0                 3
28             Tre Jackson    2   1   3  0.0                    0.0           1  0
29           Avery Showell    3   0   3  0.0                                   0.0
30             Jarett Cole    1   1   2  0.0                                   0.0
31             Shawn Davis    2   0   2  0.0                                   0.0
32            Quon Griffin    2   0   2  0.0                                   0.0
33          Omahri Jarrett    1   1   2  0.0                                   0.0
34             Jaylon King    2   0   2  0.0                                   0.0
35           Kelton Dawson    0   1   1  0.0                                   0.0
36          Justice Dingle    1   0   1  0.0                                   0.0
37         Bailey Ivemeyer    1   0   1  0.0                                   0.0
38            Jahaziel Lee    1   0   1  0.0                                   0.0
39            Zach Roberts    0   1   1  0.0                                   0.0
40              Qua Searcy    1   0   1  0.0                                   0.0
41             Devin Smith    1   0   1  0.0                                   0.0
42         Dameon Williams    0   1   1  0.0                                   0.0
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/2/2019.
 

gthxxxx

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My memory's a bit fuzzy on specific personnel details, but I feel it was more often than not for about a decade that we would lose a similar portion (just different parts) of our starters due to graduation, injury, academics, or other reasons.
 

gthxxxx

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slugboy said:
We lost a heavier amount of production than our ACC opponents. It's reflected in the forecast here: https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ia-tech-football-2019-preview-schedule-roster. The statistical leaders we didn't lose were our top kicker and top punter.
Click to expand...
I mean compared to ourselves for the past decade, the amount of lost starters seems normal. After giving your lists another glance, I recall only hearing a lot of the top ranks prominently for only 1-2 seasons. By hearing, I mean their names would be announced making the plays, e.g. x tackled by y, x rushed for y, etc.
 
slugboy

slugboy

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gthxxxx said:
I mean compared to ourselves for the past decade, the amount of lost starters seems normal. After giving your lists another glance, I recall only hearing a lot of the top ranks prominently for only 1-2 seasons. By hearing, I mean their names would be announced making the plays, e.g. x tackled by y, x rushed for y, etc.
Click to expand...

We pretty regularly lost our top receiver. We would mainly throw to one position. It actually wasn't a good thing, but it was masked by the fact that we didn't throw very much.

Typically, our top rusher was a B-Back. Lately, it's been our QB. Going from 2017 to 2018, we returned our top B-Back (#2 rusher) and our top rusher and Quarterback TaQuon Marshall. So, you'd expect a better year on offense in 2018 than 2017, because you were getting playmakers back. And the record improved from 5-6 to 7-6.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/georgia-tech/2017.html

In 2016, you had Justin Thomas (senior), Dedrick Mills (who we lost), and Marcus Marshall. We had a lot of returning production and went 9-4.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/georgia-tech/2016.html

In 2015, we lost Laskey and Days, and filled in with a banged up Patrick Skov. But we had Justin Thomas (Yay! a playmaker). But he got injured and played banged up all season (Rats!). You would have expected 2015 to be a banner year, but we ended up 3-9 because of injuries and because we lost two of our key playmakers in Days and Laskey.

In 2014, we had Justin Thomas's first full year and went 11-3. We caught lightning in a bottle. He was our #2 QB the year before, but it was becoming obvious that he was winning the job away from Vad Lee. That's what you want to see--a young playmaker winning the job away from an older one. Like Lawrence at Clemson his Freshman year. We also had Laskey and Days, who had been solid the year before.

With TaQuon taking on so much of the rushing, we were set up for a let down this year.

It's still possible that we can catch lightning in a bottle with one of our young QBs, like Graham. That's what we have to hope for. This year, we're hoping for a lot out of our last two recruiting classes, and they're good classes, but the players are young.

And that doesn't even count where we are on the offensive and defensive lines, where we lost a lot.
 

Oldgoldandwhite

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Well a few years ago we lost Dedrick and Marcus. In my opinion, that’s the biggest non graduating loss we’ve ever had. Biggest injury loss was Hollings. Biggest loss ever was Clint Castleberry.
 

ezbee

Georgia Tech Fan
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Regarding loss of offensive production this year if CPJ stayed - look at our history reloading the scheme. These were our top producers in a four year stretch:

2012 - Tevin, Orwin Smith and I believe Jeff Greene. (Though really godhigh was our best receiver IMO)
2013 - Vad/JT, Sims/Laskey,Smelter
2014 - JT, Days and Laskey
2015 - Marcus Marshall, Lynch and Jeune all appeared.

Year over year we have lost a lot of production but the offense under CPJ has moved on and adapted.

That being said, our O Line this year would be a challenge to anyone.
 
Supersizethatorder-mutt

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CPJ is gone and we have a new coach and a new system in the making, so I am not trying to stir up anything here; Collins has my support. BUT, I would bet money that IF CPJ were still here, even with the off-season losses, we would be 3-1 now.
 

gthxxxx

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Based on the year to year ranking of production via the sports-reference link, it looks to me that there was a regular change-up of player names amongst the higher contributors from season to season in the offense and defense; at least there doesn't seem to be a glaring model to be drawn of production vs record, loosely-speaking. There are a lot of contributing factors for our records, but personally, my observations of the two biggest ones are 1) difficulty of opponents and 2) injuries that occur in the middle of a game (and to a lesser degree, those that occur within a week span of the game). Loss of starter personnel from season to season seemed normal to me, as mentioned before.
 
SteamWhistle

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Supersizethatorder-mutt said:
CPJ is gone and we have a new coach and a new system in the making, so I am not trying to stir up anything here; Collins has my support. BUT, I would bet money that IF CPJ were still here, even with the off-season losses, we would be 3-1 now.
Click to expand...
I see us at 2-2 with CPJ. Which is what Collins should be. Temple sees the triple option every year I think we lose that one. I think Tech beats USF this year with CPJ as well, and the Citadel is a win.
 

lv20gt

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ezbee said:
Regarding loss of offensive production this year if CPJ stayed - look at our history reloading the scheme. These were our top producers in a four year stretch ... Year over year we have lost a lot of production but the offense under CPJ has moved on and adapted.
Click to expand...

Johnson had a lost of system players come through and be productive but not really stand out. Many (but not all) of those you listed are such players. The problem was that even with solid production it didn't always make our offense something to write home about or enough to cover for the weaknesses in the other areas. That became more true in recent years where it became pretty much mandatory for us to hold teams below 28 to win.

Also compare the situation to 2015. Both years would have had great runners at QB, Thomas vs Oliver (although Thomas had a year of experience), good BBs, Marshall and Mason, and ABs would probably be roughly even (2015 had injuries but this year we lost most of our proven players there). 2015 had Jeune who was probably better than any of our WRs here would have been this year with Johnson. Both OL groups had serious issue and were injury stricken. In 2015 we had 8 games where we scored 24 or under. The 4 games we didn't were two huge scores against Alcorn State and Tulane, 31 in a loss to UNC and 28 in a loss to Pitt. Simply put, while that team had a couple of nice pieces, the offense as a whole struggled to put up points all year.

If we assume we have the same luck with injuries on the OL this year with Johnson, I don't see us doing a whole lot better than 2015 on offense. Add that to Johnson's typical defense and that would have made for a long year anyways.
 
slugboy

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This might help a little:
upload_2019-10-3_17-37-24.png

To me, getting a highly productive, healthy playmaker back is how you have your good years. Laskey and Days in their senior years were REALLY productive and made the offense go. We didn't just reload--I wish we did. Losing them in 2015 and having JT play hurt led to a bad season.
If star players get injured during the year, you tend to have a worse year than expected, and sometimes it's a lot worse. But it's pretty clear to me that your expectation of what you'll do in a year is pretty heavily tied to who you get back AND star power you get in to replace them.
I can show the same thing with OFEI, but I'd expect this year to be down compared to last from losing TQM and some of the other players.
 

swarmer

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Braun and Adams were the biggest losses off last years roster. 2 great players lost off our thinnest personnel groups
 
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