Pre Season Ranking in "The Athletic "

[takethepoints]

I remember going into the 2017 UT game. I was next to a Vol fan and he asked how I thought the game would go. I said I had no idea what we had; we'd just lost Mills, had a new QB, and had replaced a lot of people on D. He said that it was the same for his side.

And that's why people rate us lower: they have no more idea of what we have then we do and we're making a transition. I expect that if Paul was still coach we'd be up higher, but his teams always got underrated. Personally, I think we're easy a top 50 team and that people will be surprised (again) this year.

But I have no more idea of what's going to actually happen then I did in 2017.

 

[iceeater1969]

130 FBS teams now. Pretty much every team outside of the top 10 (and some inside it) has those "coulda woulda shoulda" games. Frankly, the difference between everyone in the Coastal last year other than UNC was pretty much a bad play or bad bounce or two - you could replay the season with the same players and staffs 6 times and get 6 different division winners.
Record doesn't tell you everything, but I agree it's tough to say that a winning record against above average schedule strength puts us at 74. 50s makes sense to me.

I would like to see us at 40-50, but imo we ran low on $ for coaching staff. The 2 dl coaches have near 0 years coaching experience. I love the fire of the young guy that cgc added from temple, but he was a g a and played lb.
I think the pundits are gun shy about our new staffs lack of p 5 coaching experience .

Cgc , key and the gang of wanna be p5 coaches is all we could afford. The staff has done a great job in all aspects to date. If that continues 19 will be a year to be remembered.

 

[lv20gt]

Yes it does "champ". If you play better than 0.500 football and your strength of schedule is above average...sure the sports media can rank you down low, but they're full of **** if they do. Its why little teams that go 11-2 don't get ranked and its why teams like Texas have 4 losses but finish ranked inside the top 10.

You said if you played >.500 ball you have to finish in the top half. That isn't true and you just have to look at the records to see that. More than half the teams won more than half their games, so there had to be a team that played >.500 ball that didn't finish in the top half.

As far as schedule goes, we won games against an FCS team, a 3-9 team, a 2-10 team, and a 2-11. We absolutely bloated on weak teams, and only had one real notable win in UVA. Combine that with not being competitive against the top end of our schedule, and 5 total losses by double digits ( 4 being blowouts or near blowouts). Also, our loss to Pitt wasn't just because of a stupid fake punt call. We were down 12 with under a minute to go only making it close at the last minute, and if you want to bring up the stupid fake FG attempt, then also talk about the stupid trick play they ran to our benefit setting up one of our TDs.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

You said if you played >.500 ball you have to finish in the top half. That isn't true and you just have to look at the records to see that. More than half the teams won more than half their games, so there had to be a team that played >.500 ball that didn't finish in the top half.

As far as schedule goes, we won games against an FCS team, a 3-9 team, a 2-10 team, and a 2-11. We absolutely bloated on weak teams, and only had one real notable win in UVA. Combine that with not being competitive against the top end of our schedule, and 5 total losses by double digits ( 4 being blowouts or near blowouts). Also, our loss to Pitt wasn't just because of a stupid fake punt call. We were down 12 with under a minute to go only making it close at the last minute, and if you want to bring up the stupid fake FG attempt, then also talk about the stupid trick play they ran to our benefit setting up one of our TDs.

False, you're leaving out the supporting context and justification I gave. But be careful, you're backing up my contentions. We played 10 teams who won at least 6 wins last year. We lost to the #1 team, the #8 team (who nearly made the CFP), our division champ, and finished 7-6. When half the teams finish with winning records, half the teams finish with losing records, and our strength of schedule was above average, then there's no way we're a bottom half team. We finished 5th in the ACC. Alabama wasn't even competitive against Clemson, LOL.

Pick any middling other team and you'll find similar weak opponents. Its just the way it worked. Virginia finished #32 if you look at their votes. We beat them. We both finished the regular season 7-5. They played 0 ranked teams. 0. (Compare that to our playing Clemson and Georgia.) . They played 2 2-win teams, a 4-win team, and a 5-win team. The finished ranked #32 and are ranked #32 again in the pre-season. But we're Georgia Tech, we're just "different" huh.

 

[MWBATL]

There are very few things in life more meaningless than pre-season football polls....

 

[okiemon]

The glass is half full: all but two of our opponents are ranked above us, so we have a great chance to move up

 

[majorQ9]

We barely lost at South Florida to a team we outgained 600+ to 425 yards because we gave up 2 stupid back to back kickoff returns.
We barely lost to the ACC Coastal Champion Pittsburgh because of a stupid fake punt call.
We lost to eventual National Champion #1 Clemson.
We got stung in the butt by stupid Duke. That was a legitimate bad game.
We went into #8 Georgia at 7-4 and lost.

I don't really care what formulas show - those are the same formulas that lead to people predicting us to finish in the bottom of the ACC last year (and most years). We finished 5th in the ACC last year. So they can all suck it.

I mean, if you are playing > 0.500 football, just by numbers, you have to finish in the top of half of P5/G5, which is what, about 115 teams? If we played > 0.500 football, and 3 of our losses were #1, #8, and Division Champ, no way we're in the bottom half of P5/G5.

Here's why advanced stats didn't like last year's team

We barely beat UVA in overtime where we scored a kickoff return off a safety, recovered a muffed punt and UVA shanked a field goal,

We barely beat Miami scoring off of a muffed punt and a fumble off a kickoff

The defense hasn't created enough havoc and negative plays.

Our recruiting hasn't been great or good until Collins came in.

These types of plays aren't typically sustainable. Unless you think Juanyeh and Pressley are going to be the most effective offensive weapons this year.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Here's why advanced stats didn't like last year's team

We barely beat UVA in overtime where we scored a kickoff return off a safety, recovered a muffed punt and UVA shanked a field goal,

We barely beat Miami scoring off of a muffed punt and a fumble off a kickoff

The defense hasn't created enough havoc and negative plays.

Our recruiting hasn't been great or good until Collins came in.

These types of plays aren't typically sustainable. Unless you think Juanyeh and Pressley are going to be the most effective offensive weapons this year.

Right, but I was wrong when I typed above that we were 5th last year. We were 4th in the ACC. 4th out of 14! LOL.

Those formulas always seem to have some reason why they don't like us.

 

[lv20gt]

. We played 10 teams who won at least 6 wins last year.

Including an FCS team and a team with a losing record. We went 4-6 against that group of 10 and went 2-6 against FBS teams with winning records.

We lost to the #1 team, the #8 team (who nearly made the CFP), our division champ, and finished 7-6.

We also lost by 11 to a 7-6 team, 14 to an 8-5 team, and 24 to a 7-6 team. Sorry being blown out by the #1 and #8 teams don't earn you participation points. We beat only one team of note, feasted on weak teams, and had several bad losses.

When half the teams finish with winning records, half the teams finish with losing records, and our strength of schedule was above average, then there's no way we're a bottom half team.

Once again. The bold isn't true. More than half of the teams finished with winning records.

Virginia finished #32 if you look at their votes. We beat them. We both finished the regular season 7-5.

They finished post bowl ranked 32nd, but you are talking about the regular season records? Gosh. What could have possibly happened between the end of the regular season and the final polls to justify the difference?

 

[steebu]

As a total unknown we are a crap shoot. This year i am in the camp that says - its all about playing tough , smart, and getting better.

I know what you're getting at, but let me counter with this: it's not like we were an undisciplined bunch of pushovers last year. We were already tough - even the Clemson guys said the most physical game of the year for them was GT. In general, we didn't make too many bone-headed plays, 2 KO's for TD's back-to-back against USF notwithstanding.

All I'm saying is CGC isn't inheriting a circa 2007 1-11 Duke team.; he's inheriting a tough bunch of guys who can play smart and at least had a winning season last year.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, scheme changes everywhere. But the guys are enthusiastic about learning it, and while the mental errors that come from that will surely affect us early on, I definitely agree we have the potential to have a good bunch of guys get better as the season goes along. 8-4 or even 9-3 as a ceiling is realistic. I will stake my meaningless reputation on us not doing worse than 5-7, assuming we don't have a repeat of 2015 with half our offense suffering season-ending injuries.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Including an FCS team and a team with a losing record. We went 4-6 against that group of 10 and went 2-6 against FBS teams with winning records.



We also lost by 11 to a 7-6 team, 14 to an 8-5 team, and 24 to a 7-6 team. Sorry being blown out by the #1 and #8 teams don't earn you participation points. We beat only one team of note, feasted on weak teams, and had several bad losses.




Once again. The bold isn't true. More than half of the teams finished with winning records.



They finished post bowl ranked 32nd, but you are talking about the regular season records? Gosh. What could have possibly happened between the end of the regular season and the final polls to justify the difference?

The amount of bending over backwards you’re willing to do to get any negative angle on our team is sad.

We finished 4th in the ACC for Pete’s sake. LOLOLOLOL.

 

[lv20gt]

We finished 4th in the ACC for Pete’s sake

Except conference games don't dictate a conference wide ranking.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Except conference games don't dictate a conference wide ranking.

Sad.

 

[swampsting]

We barely lost at South Florida to a team we outgained 600+ to 425 yards because we gave up 2 stupid back to back kickoff returns.
We barely lost to the ACC Coastal Champion Pittsburgh because of a stupid fake punt call..

Don't forget the fumble going driving deep into USF territory in the fourth, even after giving up 2 (2!) KOR TDs. As painful and killer as the fumble deep in Tennessee territory when we had a chance to put that game away two years ago. And yeah, the fake punt call was a head scratcher. Not Kirby fake punt call bad, which, actually, is the greatest fake punt call of all time. But in the neighborhood.

 

[swampsting]

I would like to see us at 40-50, but imo we ran low on $ for coaching staff. The 2 dl coaches have near 0 years coaching experience. I love the fire of the young guy that cgc added from temple, but he was a g a and played lb.
I think the pundits are gun shy about our new staffs lack of p 5 coaching experience .

Cgc , key and the gang of wanna be p5 coaches is all we could afford. The staff has done a great job in all aspects to date. If that continues 19 will be a year to be remembered.

We seem to have spent $ on a GM, a chief of staff and a Morpheus to help with branding, tho.
I hope that spending plan works. If it doesn't ....

 

[GT99]

I think the pundits are gun shy about our new staffs lack of p 5 coaching experience .

Honestly, I doubt the large majority of pundits know anything about our staff beyond Collins, Key, and Patenaude at this point - not because the coaches are unknowns but because unless you're a beat writer covering a team, you probably don't know any more of a new staff beyond HC and coordinators. In other words, I would wager at least 75%+ of pundits who have issued some sort of opinion on our season couldn't even name more than 1 or 2 of our coaches below the coordinators off the top of their heads.

 

[Squints]

There are very few things in life more meaningless than pre-season football polls....

One of those things is message board hot takes based on those preseason polls.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

There are very few things in life more meaningless than pre-season football polls....

Agree, especially with the click bait ratings. Finishing 80th is statistically inprobable.

The worst CPJ ever finished was 76th (2015). The worst Gailey ever finsihed was 53rd. The worst O'Leary ever finished was 65th in 1994, his second year. (J Howell Rankings). So yes, CPJ had the worst worst year.

The last time we finsihed 80th or below was Bill Lewis in his last year of 1995. So you have to go back about 24 years to see us having finished that bad. I'll bet anyone that we finish better than 80th this year.

J Howell has us at 44th ths year in their pre-season predictions. About right statistically. http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cf2019.htm

 

[Cam]

I thought I'd include this tidbit here given the connection to The Athletic. In the ACC preview by their head CFB guys (Mandel, Staples, and Feldman), Staples listed his "assistant on the rise" as Andrew Thacker. Also, the projected win totals were 6-6 (Mandel), 5-7 (Staples), and 3-9 (Feldman).

 

[herb]

Here's why advanced stats didn't like last year's team

We barely beat UVA in overtime where we scored a kickoff return off a safety, recovered a muffed punt and UVA shanked a field goal,

We barely beat Miami scoring off of a muffed punt and a fumble off a kickoff

The defense hasn't created enough havoc and negative plays.

Our recruiting hasn't been great or good until Collins came in.

These types of plays aren't typically sustainable. Unless you think Juanyeh and Pressley are going to be the most effective offensive weapons this year.

Then they should have loved last year's team as we lost a game to Tennessee that we statistically dominated. Lost to Miami in a monsoon on a fluke 4th down grab and lost to Virginia in a game we had a 15 point third quarter lead. But the sports writers and stat guys didn't like that team either.