IMO the recruiting path has a thinner margin of error. If you rely on new additions every year to fill your holes then you limit the players you can take. You need instant impact players and even in freshmen that is not reliable for all except maybe the top 20? If that. If you need a center that leaves what, 5 or 6 to go after , depending on the year? Maybe that same number of transfers. All in high demand. And if you do, those type of players are the types that move on quickly, either as NBA players or they were transfers who ran out of eligibility and so the next year you're back in the same situation creating a cycle. To me that is not a sustainable module for success for most programs and I think if you look at the programs who pull it off the best, Duke, Kentucky, etc, you're seeing that unreliability to some extent.
Look at guys like Bittle, Bediako, Reid, Aidoo, etc. All top 50 guys and all have struggled to various extents. Yes there are some examples of freshmen having great impact. But it isn't as reliable as people think. Just getting a top 50 guy does guarantee you get someone ready to go. And the same holds true of transfers. Sure there are big time transfers that make an impact. There are also big name transfers who make a significantly smaller impact than advertised. So sure, elite recruiting can give you more wiggle room if things don't turn out, but the reality was we were a program that went a decade without an NCAAT appearance and were sporadic before that. We can't realistically expect to win the recruiting battles for the types of recruits/transfers that can make that type of immediate impact reliably (key word reliably).
I don't think we can rely on recruiting plug and play players, from hs or from the portal. Too few and in to high demand and we just don't have enough to sell at this point, even with an ACCT from last year. We need to go the development route and I think we've for the most part setup well for it. I think there are three factors that have this year being what it is. The first is a poor 2019 class. We don't need a top 10 class in the nation, but we need at least solid players in most classes. That class lacked that, although we did well in the portal that year with Ush and Bubba and tried to address that weakness with Howard and Sturdivant. The second thing was not getting more experience for the young guys last year. Part of that was Maxwell and Meka being hurt, but part was just Pastner selling out to maximize our accomplishments last year. He really should have gotten Howard and Saba more burn last year but it is hard to be too critical with what we got in exchange. The last thing is the disruptions we had this year in the OOC schedule. Between injuries, the flu, covid protocols, etc we didn't get the early season experience that we needed to. We might not have gotten to where we needed to anyways, but those disruptions really hampered us. The first two issues put a greater need on the OOC for us this year and made the third issue that much bigger a deal.
IMO people forget that a big reason why Jose, Moses, Mike, Ush etc developed the way they did was because they played through early. We absolutely should not be going with Ush/Moore as our bigs this year. For one it's not a winning strategy in the best of scenarios but also it just further delays the development of our bigs. Play Meka and Saba. Let them learn from their mistakes and when Howard returns let him do the same.