AE 87
Helluva Engineer
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Okay, so again the PPD used in this post is a calculated stat. Points = 7x(Rush TD's + Pass TD's) + 3xFG's made. Drives = Rush TD's + Pass TD's + FG's Att + Punts + Failed 4th + lost turnovers. I calculate an OPPD for our offense and a DPPD for our points allowed. As a rule of thumb, teams playing more than 2 Pwr 5 opponents average 2.15 pts/drive and allow 2.32 points/drive in those games.
Here are our OPPD for each of our ACC games compared to the opponent's average DPPD vs Pwr5 opponents:
There's a pretty good indicator of Bad GT vs Good GT on offense. Against Pitt and Duke, we scored 2/3 and less of the points per drive they allow on average. Against CU and LOLvl about 70% more efficiently than they typically allow. VPI game was crazy good and the unc game was alright but turnovers slowed us down.
If we allow that the VPI game was an aberration and that the unc game was marked by unusual fumbles, I think 1.7 above opposition averages seems a reasonable assessment.
Now here are our DPPD for each of these games compared to our opponent's average OPPD vs Pwr5 opponents:
Besides the Pitt game, we've been consistently below average. Now, if we allow that the LOLvl and VPI D may have given up some points because of GT's lead, then I think that saying we allow 1.2 times more points/drive than average is a reasonable assessment.
Now here are our remaining opponents and their average points/drive vs power5 opponents:
Using the 1.7 and 1.2 multipliers, and assuming 12 drives, the predicted scores of these games are:
GT 32 - d'ohU 22
GT 37 - uva 29
GT 37 - u[sic]ga 44
Now, obviously the stat is descriptive and is not intended to be predictive. For example, it doesn't consider run-back scores at all. Still, I thought it was interesting.
Here are our OPPD for each of our ACC games compared to the opponent's average DPPD vs Pwr5 opponents:
There's a pretty good indicator of Bad GT vs Good GT on offense. Against Pitt and Duke, we scored 2/3 and less of the points per drive they allow on average. Against CU and LOLvl about 70% more efficiently than they typically allow. VPI game was crazy good and the unc game was alright but turnovers slowed us down.
If we allow that the VPI game was an aberration and that the unc game was marked by unusual fumbles, I think 1.7 above opposition averages seems a reasonable assessment.
Now here are our DPPD for each of these games compared to our opponent's average OPPD vs Pwr5 opponents:
Besides the Pitt game, we've been consistently below average. Now, if we allow that the LOLvl and VPI D may have given up some points because of GT's lead, then I think that saying we allow 1.2 times more points/drive than average is a reasonable assessment.
Now here are our remaining opponents and their average points/drive vs power5 opponents:
Using the 1.7 and 1.2 multipliers, and assuming 12 drives, the predicted scores of these games are:
GT 32 - d'ohU 22
GT 37 - uva 29
GT 37 - u[sic]ga 44
Now, obviously the stat is descriptive and is not intended to be predictive. For example, it doesn't consider run-back scores at all. Still, I thought it was interesting.
