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Post-Spring game season win total poll
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<blockquote data-quote="vamosjackets" data-source="post: 573723" data-attributes="member: 216"><p>247 team recruiting rankings in 2019:</p><p>GT 52</p><p>ugag 2</p><p>clemson 10</p><p>vt 26</p><p>mia 28</p><p>ncst 29</p><p>unc 32</p><p>uva 34</p><p>duke 47</p><p>pitt 55</p><p>usf 76</p><p>temple 104</p><p>citadel 214</p><p></p><p>I'm trying to think of a way to produce an "objective" record prediction based on the talent as measured by recruiting rankings. This is just one year's ranking, but I'm going to assume (perhaps erroneously - feel free to point that out if you believe it is) that last year was pretty typical for us and our opponents. I'm going to have to put more thought into this. Maybe somebody else has already done it (Seem certain they have). Maybe putting these into a normal distribution with a corresponding probability or something like that. </p><p></p><p>A formula I came up with just messing around on excel is (Opp Rec Rank/ GT Rec Rank)/2. That gave us a 50% chance of beating ourselves. I have no logical basis for this formula, but it seemed to come out with numbers that were right on target (except for temple and citadel which were 100% and 206%, but it worked well for the rest). Again, gotta think about this more, though I doubt I will have time. The numbers excel came up with are:</p><p></p><p>ugag .02</p><p>clem .1</p><p>vt .25</p><p>mia .27</p><p>ncst .28</p><p>unc .31</p><p>uva .33</p><p>duke .45</p><p>pitt .53</p><p>usf .73</p><p>temp 1</p><p>cit 1</p><p></p><p>So, our expected win total, based on recruited talent alone would be 5.27. Seems that could be about right.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="vamosjackets, post: 573723, member: 216"] 247 team recruiting rankings in 2019: GT 52 ugag 2 clemson 10 vt 26 mia 28 ncst 29 unc 32 uva 34 duke 47 pitt 55 usf 76 temple 104 citadel 214 I'm trying to think of a way to produce an "objective" record prediction based on the talent as measured by recruiting rankings. This is just one year's ranking, but I'm going to assume (perhaps erroneously - feel free to point that out if you believe it is) that last year was pretty typical for us and our opponents. I'm going to have to put more thought into this. Maybe somebody else has already done it (Seem certain they have). Maybe putting these into a normal distribution with a corresponding probability or something like that. A formula I came up with just messing around on excel is (Opp Rec Rank/ GT Rec Rank)/2. That gave us a 50% chance of beating ourselves. I have no logical basis for this formula, but it seemed to come out with numbers that were right on target (except for temple and citadel which were 100% and 206%, but it worked well for the rest). Again, gotta think about this more, though I doubt I will have time. The numbers excel came up with are: ugag .02 clem .1 vt .25 mia .27 ncst .28 unc .31 uva .33 duke .45 pitt .53 usf .73 temp 1 cit 1 So, our expected win total, based on recruited talent alone would be 5.27. Seems that could be about right. [/QUOTE]
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