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Post-Spring game season win total poll
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<blockquote data-quote="lv20gt" data-source="post: 573678" data-attributes="member: 2299"><p>The spring game did a lot of things, but it didn't shed much light into how good we will be next year to me. Part of that is just the inherent nature of playing against yourself in what amounts to a zero sum situation. The other part is we don't really have any previous reference points to go by. If we knew we had a strong DL then an OL not allowing pressure would be good. But changing both sides of the ball means we don't even have that guide. </p><p></p><p>Going by the schedule. There are two games, UGA and Clemson, that are most likely losses and one game, Citadel, that is most likely a win. If we were to have a 50% chance in each of the remaining that would put the expected win total at 5.5. Due to us completely changing both the offense and defense, I think 5 is more likely than 6. </p><p></p><p>The interesting thing next year is that our schedule sets up to be very momentum based. It's a very back loaded schedule beyond game 1. To me this makes the seson much more volatile than it would be otherwise. I could see us losing to clemson, winning the next 4 to build up some momentum and then do well against the back half with the time to develop and get used to the new schemes. I could also see us losing 3 of the first 4, having some doubts set in and then struggle in the back half if it becomes apparent that we have holes that we don't have the pieces to fill in this year, and possibly players having late doubts/recognizing they don't fit in the new scheme . I don't think you can really say which is more likely to occur, but I think the variance is a bit higher than it might be with a different order. </p><p></p><p>Ultimately though I think it's just too early to get a good read on the year yet.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="lv20gt, post: 573678, member: 2299"] The spring game did a lot of things, but it didn't shed much light into how good we will be next year to me. Part of that is just the inherent nature of playing against yourself in what amounts to a zero sum situation. The other part is we don't really have any previous reference points to go by. If we knew we had a strong DL then an OL not allowing pressure would be good. But changing both sides of the ball means we don't even have that guide. Going by the schedule. There are two games, UGA and Clemson, that are most likely losses and one game, Citadel, that is most likely a win. If we were to have a 50% chance in each of the remaining that would put the expected win total at 5.5. Due to us completely changing both the offense and defense, I think 5 is more likely than 6. The interesting thing next year is that our schedule sets up to be very momentum based. It's a very back loaded schedule beyond game 1. To me this makes the seson much more volatile than it would be otherwise. I could see us losing to clemson, winning the next 4 to build up some momentum and then do well against the back half with the time to develop and get used to the new schemes. I could also see us losing 3 of the first 4, having some doubts set in and then struggle in the back half if it becomes apparent that we have holes that we don't have the pieces to fill in this year, and possibly players having late doubts/recognizing they don't fit in the new scheme . I don't think you can really say which is more likely to occur, but I think the variance is a bit higher than it might be with a different order. Ultimately though I think it's just too early to get a good read on the year yet. [/QUOTE]
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