Points Per Drive vs Power 5 Rankings

[AE 87]

Okay, just to review for those who haven't seen these before, I calculate a points/drive stat.

The number of drives are calculated as the sum of Rushing TDs, Passing TDs, FG atts, Punts, Failed 4th Downs, and Turnovers. So a half-ending or game-ending possession does not count as a drive, nor does a safety.

The number of points are calculated as 7 points for every rushing or passing TD and 3 pts for every made FG. So, defensive and special-teams run-back scores do not enter into the calculations.

I then calculate both an offensive and defensive points/drive versus power 5 opponents stat for teams who have played at least 3 pwr5 opponents. I then subtract the points allowed (defensive points/drive) from the points gained (offensive points/drive) to determine a differential points/drive.

Here are the differential points/drive rankings compared to the AP and Coaches Poll rankings (it should be noted that Wisc, UCF, USF, and Cinn are not ranked because they have not yet played enough Power 5 opponents):

I think this comparison makes a prima facie case for the meaningfulness of the stat. At least, I think, it supports this stat being part of the conversation regarding team rankings.

With this in mind, Georgia Tech is currently #29 in DiffPPDvPwr5. We are ranked #8 in Offensive PPDvPwr5 and #50 in Def PPDvPwr5. If our D keeps improving and our O solidifies, we should be a pretty formidable team.

 

[GT_05]

This is a great stat; thanks for sharing. My only thought on how to possibly improve it would be to consider the conference strength of the opponents. I like to look at the Colley conference ranking for this comparison. This year, the SEC appears to be dominating and the PAC-12 is lagging behind. Anyway, just a thought.

http://www.colleyrankings.com/curconf.html

Your stat is awesome and very interesting. GT is only four slots behind Duke, which is very encouraging. Where is VT? Miami isn’t too far above us. Maybe we can get four more wins.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[33jacket]

Okay, just to review for those who haven't seen these before, I calculate a points/drive stat.

The number of drives are calculated as the sum of Rushing TDs, Passing TDs, FG atts, Punts, Failed 4th Downs, and Turnovers. So a half-ending or game-ending possession does not count as a drive, nor does a safety.

The number of points are calculated as 7 points for every rushing or passing TD and 3 pts for every made FG. So, defensive and special-teams run-back scores do not enter into the calculations.

I then calculate both an offensive and defensive points/drive versus power 5 opponents stat for teams who have played at least 3 pwr5 opponents. I then subtract the points allowed (defensive points/drive) from the points gained (offensive points/drive) to determine a differential points/drive.

Here are the differential points/drive rankings compared to the AP and Coaches Poll rankings (it should be noted that Wisc, UCF, USF, and Cinn are not ranked because they have not yet played enough Power 5 opponents):

View attachment 4267

I think this comparison makes a prima facie case for the meaningfulness of the stat. At least, I think, it supports this stat being part of the conversation regarding team rankings.

With this in mind, Georgia Tech is currently #29 in DiffPPDvPwr5. We are ranked #8 in Offensive PPDvPwr5 and #50 in Def PPDvPwr5. If our D keeps improving and our O solidifies, we should be a pretty formidable team.

What was d ppd last year according to your system? Just curious where we are.

 

[JacketFromUGA]

you should post these rankings over on reddit r/cfb plenty there would enjoy them

 

[AE 87]

What was d ppd last year according to your system? Just curious where we are.

I didn't calculate it after week 8 for last year.

 

[smathis30]

you should post these rankings over on reddit r/cfb plenty there would enjoy them

Stat is good, but its issue is that is misses out on strength of schedule entirely. It was either 2016 or 2017 that it expected us to beat Clemson and they had already played Auburn and Troy, who each would finish with 10 wins. GT played teams who would combine to 10 wins.

Not saying its not useful, but anything not adjusted for SOS until week 8 when you have as many conference games as non-conference games needs to be taken with a fat grain of salt.

 

[33jacket]

I didn't calculate it after week 8 for last year.

Do u have it up to that? Or total year or any relative idea?

 

[AE 87]

Stat is good, but its issue is that is misses out on strength of schedule entirely. It was either 2016 or 2017 that it expected us to beat Clemson and they had already played Auburn and Troy, who each would finish with 10 wins. GT played teams who would combine to 10 wins.

Not saying its not useful, but anything not adjusted for SOS until week 8 when you have as many conference games as non-conference games needs to be taken with a fat grain of salt.

I appreciate that reaction in theory. However, I think the comparison to the AP and Coaches poll rankings suggest it is worth more than a grain of salt. 5 of the top 6, 7 of the top 8 in my statistical ranking agree with the two major polls. C'mon man! Grain of salt?!

Also, my stat only uses Pwr5 teams and requires at least 3 Pwr5 opponents. So, it's not like it completely ignores strength of schedule.

While I agree more data should make it better, I still think it's data worth discussing.

 

[smathis30]

I appreciate that reaction in theory. However, I think the comparison to the AP and Coaches poll rankings suggest it is worth more than a grain of salt. 5 of the top 6, 7 of the top 8 in my statistical ranking agree with the two major polls. C'mon man! Grain of salt?!

Also, my stat only uses Pwr5 teams and requires at least 3 Pwr5 opponents. So, it's not like it completely ignores strength of schedule.

While I agree more data should make it better, I still think it's data worth discussing.

I have my own computer rankings and Points Per Drive is the most important stat in calculating efficiencies.
My top 8 is
1. Bama
2. UGA
3. Clemson
4. Ohio State
5. Michigan
6. Penn State
7. App State
8. Oklahoma

So although not perfect either, it still hits 4 of the top 5 as well. Not saying its bad, but grain of salt as my rankings obviously have a huge outlier in them due to early season SoS and performance, and its intent to predict future results more so than tell you what to take from what has happened.
Most computer models don't really excel until mid point of the season

 

[AE 87]

Do u have it up to that? Or total year or any relative idea?

After the WF game, we were 4-2, with 1 pt OT loss to TN and 1pt fluke loss to d'oh U.

PPD v Pwr5 had us with the #11 O, #23 D, and #15 over all.

Then the wheels fell off after the CU game.

 

[Milwaukee]

But what about conference games on the road in the rain vs teams .500 or better with a qb with more than a 52.8% completion percentage coached by a team coming off a .650 conference record that lost their previous bowl game vs teams with a .633 conference record who won their previous bowl?

I'm only kidding @AE 87 you know I love you.

 

[AE 87]

I have my own computer rankings and Points Per Drive is the most important stat in calculating efficiencies.
My top 8 is
1. Bama
2. UGA
3. Clemson
4. Ohio State
5. Michigan
6. Penn State
7. App State
8. Oklahoma

So although not perfect either, it still hits 4 of the top 5 as well. Not saying its bad, but grain of salt as my rankings obviously have a huge outlier in them due to early season SoS and performance, and its intent to predict future results more so than tell you what to take from what has happened.
Most computer models don't really excel until mid point of the season

Yeah, my stat is still a raw stat like pts/game etc. As such, it will suffer some from SoS, but I've found the difference between Gp5 and Pwr5 significant as well as the minimum of 3 games. Tifwiw.

 

[iceeater1969]

Clearly a good stat.
Could u both of please post our stat now?

And as we ethier get whipped, do the whipping or some of both. It will be something with numbers!

 

[AE 87]

Clearly a good stat.
Could u both of please post our stat now?

And as we ethier get whipped, do the whipping or some of both. It will be something with numbers!

Our OPPD vs Pwr5 is currently a very good 3.06. Our DPPD vs Pwr5 is the horrible 2.94. Giving up 31 to LOLvl was atrocious.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I appreciate that reaction in theory. However, I think the comparison to the AP and Coaches poll rankings suggest it is worth more than a grain of salt. 5 of the top 6, 7 of the top 8 in my statistical ranking agree with the two major polls. C'mon man! Grain of salt?!

Also, my stat only uses Pwr5 teams and requires at least 3 Pwr5 opponents. So, it's not like it completely ignores strength of schedule.

While I agree more data should make it better, I still think it's data worth discussing.

I like your stat. It’s an efficiency stat which attempts to create a level playing field comparison. I do think it could use some kind of SoS normalization beyond the P5 you’ve included. There can be a pretty big disparity in the P5. There are some pretty good non P5’s too.

 

[AE 87]

I like your stat. It’s an efficiency stat which attempts to create a level playing field comparison. I do think it could use some kind of SoS normalization beyond the P5 you’ve included. There can be a pretty big disparity in the P5. There are some pretty good non P5’s too.

Have at it. It's a raw stat not an advanced stat.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Have at it. It's a raw stat not an advanced stat.

I realize that, it’s hard to do. SOS is incredibly subjective. Overall, it gives a pretty good look at O and D quality. A team with high marks on both sides of the ball would be pretty tough to beat.

 

[ibeattetris]

I don't think people grasp how difficult factoring SOS would be to a stat like this. How do you determine the seeding for SOS? Do you use preseason rankings? Do you use current season data backfilled with last seasons data? Are you going to weight it on the strength of the opposing team def/off or just on the overall rank of the team? Once you begin to determine a SOS metric, you are now going to weigh the PPD up or down. Now how are we going to determine if the weight we determined was correct. What do we have to compare it against? Do we run this algorithm over previous years and then compare head to head of weighted PPD to see how well the weights compare? Or do we just look at the output and see if it compares well with other rankings?

I think I agree with AE here.

Have at it.

 

[AE 87]

I don't think people grasp how difficult factoring SOS would be to a stat like this. How do you determine the seeding for SOS? Do you use preseason rankings? Do you use current season data backfilled with last seasons data? Are you going to weight it on the strength of the opposing team def/off or just on the overall rank of the team? Once you begin to determine a SOS metric, you are now going to weigh the PPD up or down. Now how are we going to determine if the weight we determined was correct. What do we have to compare it against? Do we run this algorithm over previous years and then compare head to head of weighted PPD to see how well the weights compare? Or do we just look at the output and see if it compares well with other rankings?

I think I agree with AE here.

This.

One thing to watch based on these rankings is the relative strength of Washington and Michigan. The polls like Washington while PPDvPwr5 likes Michigan.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I don't think people grasp how difficult factoring SOS would be to a stat like this. How do you determine the seeding for SOS? Do you use preseason rankings? Do you use current season data backfilled with last seasons data? Are you going to weight it on the strength of the opposing team def/off or just on the overall rank of the team? Once you begin to determine a SOS metric, you are now going to weigh the PPD up or down. Now how are we going to determine if the weight we determined was correct. What do we have to compare it against? Do we run this algorithm over previous years and then compare head to head of weighted PPD to see how well the weights compare? Or do we just look at the output and see if it compares well with other rankings?

I think I agree with AE here.

I agree yet some on here want to throw out our P5 stats (UL) because they’re a “cupcake”. You also have teams like us who are very good on one side of the ball but not the other. Good luck factoring that in.