AE 87
Helluva Engineer
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Just as a reminder, these points/drive numbers and rankings are a raw stat, like points/game (Scoring Offense, Scoring Defense). They do not account for strength of schedule.
There are two advantages to these numbers over the raw scoring offense and scoring defense numbers, imo. (1) They normalize the comparison between teams like GT who typically have about 10 drives/game and teams like UNC whom I'm guessing typically have about 16. (2) They also don't count Special Teams and Defensive scores.
tl;dr: Puts some numbers on Great O, Bad D, and the relative strength of GT and ND vis a vis UNC.
Good News: Our offense has been crazy good. We're currently #5 in PPD, averaging 3.4 points/drive over the first 7 games. Yes, we've played some weak teams, but we've also played some decent teams, footballoutsiders ranking VPI the #4 D and Duke the #19 D. VPI and Duke are #15 and #10 in raw ppd defense. Before our game against UNC we were #2 in F/+ Offense.
Bad News: Our defense has been crazy bad. We're currently #115 in PPD Def, allowing on average 2.88 ppd over the first 7 games. Only Texas Tech is worse in this category of power 5 teams. UNC is #114. Football outsiders likes Miami's offense, ranking it #9; they are #44 in ppd. The other offenses we've faced are worse. Before our game vs. UNC we were #80 in F/+ Defense.
Perspective: UNC's team might be better than its season-long statistics. For example, they apparently started the season without two of their now starting upperclassmen on the OL, and they apparently had been giving QB snaps to a different QB.
Let's compare our game with UNC to their game with ND last week. Although ND's D has allowed 1.49 ppd for the year, UNC scored 2.7 ppd against them (that doesn't count the interception score). ND's O has scored at a rate of 2.62 PPD, and they scored at a rate of about 3.3 ppd against UNC. So, that gives some measure of the strength of UNC's D and O. Now against us, they both scored and allowed scoring of about 4.5 ppd. UNC had 11 drives to our 10. So, last week, UNC hung-in with ND who just hung-in with FSU. So, who knows?
My Take: We're likely in for a very rocky road the rest of the way. UVA and Pitt like to run and our D likes to let teams run. NC State prefers to pass, but they're capable of running.
My concern is that our D is not just bad it's crazy bad and showing no signs of getting better. UNC and Duke marched down the field doing the same sorts of stuff Georgia Southern did. If d'oh U had kept running the ball, they'd probably have beat us too. Every offense that we will face from here on out will be significantly better than Duke's in my opinion. I think our guys want to be playing hard or well on D, but I think that at a sub-conscious level they've checked-out. In post-game interviews for the last couple of weeks, players have been saying that their opponents just wanted more. Could be cliche, but who knows?
We need to have a come to Jesus meeting with D coaches and then the D. Something's got to change. If CPJ grabbed the reigns, then he should give them back, because what we're doing is not working.
I am really impressed with our O. It looks like we can make all the necessary plays. We are running the option beautifully. And when we want to hit a pass play because of scheme, we're doing it, both passing and catching. Of course, we still struggle when forced to pass into coverage, but that's to be expected somewhat. Still, realistically, an offense just cannot be expected to score every time it has the ball. That being said, the bulk of what's great about our O is coming back next year.
I still can't fathom giving up on the bird in the hand we have with this offense, but we really need to figure out what's happening with our D. I just can't imagine that talent alone is the issue.
There are two advantages to these numbers over the raw scoring offense and scoring defense numbers, imo. (1) They normalize the comparison between teams like GT who typically have about 10 drives/game and teams like UNC whom I'm guessing typically have about 16. (2) They also don't count Special Teams and Defensive scores.
tl;dr: Puts some numbers on Great O, Bad D, and the relative strength of GT and ND vis a vis UNC.
Good News: Our offense has been crazy good. We're currently #5 in PPD, averaging 3.4 points/drive over the first 7 games. Yes, we've played some weak teams, but we've also played some decent teams, footballoutsiders ranking VPI the #4 D and Duke the #19 D. VPI and Duke are #15 and #10 in raw ppd defense. Before our game against UNC we were #2 in F/+ Offense.
Bad News: Our defense has been crazy bad. We're currently #115 in PPD Def, allowing on average 2.88 ppd over the first 7 games. Only Texas Tech is worse in this category of power 5 teams. UNC is #114. Football outsiders likes Miami's offense, ranking it #9; they are #44 in ppd. The other offenses we've faced are worse. Before our game vs. UNC we were #80 in F/+ Defense.
Perspective: UNC's team might be better than its season-long statistics. For example, they apparently started the season without two of their now starting upperclassmen on the OL, and they apparently had been giving QB snaps to a different QB.
Let's compare our game with UNC to their game with ND last week. Although ND's D has allowed 1.49 ppd for the year, UNC scored 2.7 ppd against them (that doesn't count the interception score). ND's O has scored at a rate of 2.62 PPD, and they scored at a rate of about 3.3 ppd against UNC. So, that gives some measure of the strength of UNC's D and O. Now against us, they both scored and allowed scoring of about 4.5 ppd. UNC had 11 drives to our 10. So, last week, UNC hung-in with ND who just hung-in with FSU. So, who knows?
My Take: We're likely in for a very rocky road the rest of the way. UVA and Pitt like to run and our D likes to let teams run. NC State prefers to pass, but they're capable of running.
My concern is that our D is not just bad it's crazy bad and showing no signs of getting better. UNC and Duke marched down the field doing the same sorts of stuff Georgia Southern did. If d'oh U had kept running the ball, they'd probably have beat us too. Every offense that we will face from here on out will be significantly better than Duke's in my opinion. I think our guys want to be playing hard or well on D, but I think that at a sub-conscious level they've checked-out. In post-game interviews for the last couple of weeks, players have been saying that their opponents just wanted more. Could be cliche, but who knows?
We need to have a come to Jesus meeting with D coaches and then the D. Something's got to change. If CPJ grabbed the reigns, then he should give them back, because what we're doing is not working.
I am really impressed with our O. It looks like we can make all the necessary plays. We are running the option beautifully. And when we want to hit a pass play because of scheme, we're doing it, both passing and catching. Of course, we still struggle when forced to pass into coverage, but that's to be expected somewhat. Still, realistically, an offense just cannot be expected to score every time it has the ball. That being said, the bulk of what's great about our O is coming back next year.
I still can't fathom giving up on the bird in the hand we have with this offense, but we really need to figure out what's happening with our D. I just can't imagine that talent alone is the issue.
