Playoff elimination & prediction: I'd be nervous if ....

JacketintheBend

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1 Lou Holtz and Barry Alvarez were coaching ND instead of Kelly and VanGorder
2 DeShone Kizer is as good as the last 3d stringer that played in the 3d game of the season for ND
3 ND had anything but a pair of 3d team backs behind a very good OL

Local weather @ gametime 65 w/wind 20-25 and rainy (our ad, IMO)
The fans are friendly and the campus is beautiful
And make no mistake, it is a playoff elimination game
W and I'll hide my glee; L and I'll be ducking playful jabs, had one of each in my time here

Prediction: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 42 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 30
 
Augusta_Jacket

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JacketintheBend said:
And make no mistake, it is a playoff elimination game
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I am not sold on this yet. If this were the only loss for either team, then I think an argument could be made for inclusion based on SoS. It would also help as the loss would be early in the season. This is particularly true for GT. If GT goes 11-1, the loss to ND is close, & wins the ACCCG, then at 12-1 with a top 10 SoS, there would have to be multiple undefeated P5 teams to keep GT out. I think we can afford a loss to one of either ND, FSU or Clemson as long as they are close. IMO, a loss to uga happens too late in the season and would probably eliminate us. We do have to win at least 11 regular season games and the ACCCG to have a chance, though.
 
GTNavyNuke

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Augusta_Jacket said:
I am not sold on this yet. If this were the only loss for either team, then I think an argument could be made for inclusion based on SoS. It would also help as the loss would be early in the season. This is particularly true for GT. If GT goes 11-1, the loss to ND is close, & wins the ACCCG, then at 12-1 with a top 10 SoS, there would have to be multiple undefeated P5 teams to keep GT out. I think we can afford a loss to one of either ND, FSU or Clemson as long as they are close. IMO, a loss to uga happens too late in the season and would probably eliminate us. We do have to win at least 11 regular season games and the ACCCG to have a chance, though.
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If there are a few P5 conference champions with 2 losses I agree. I don't see that happening.

I am totally sold on ND being out with 1 loss since they don't have a conference championship to keep the voters attention at the end of the season. Thus they will have a weaker season than the P5 champs will probably have.

You may be right about us losing an early game and then coming back to beat that team (Clemson or FSU) in the ACCCG to make the play offs. All this being said, I think we only have a ~3% chance of winning out so I don't stress over it.
 

Animal02

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Augusta_Jacket said:
I am not sold on this yet. If this were the only loss for either team, then I think an argument could be made for inclusion based on SoS. It would also help as the loss would be early in the season. This is particularly true for GT. If GT goes 11-1, the loss to ND is close, & wins the ACCCG, then at 12-1 with a top 10 SoS, there would have to be multiple undefeated P5 teams to keep GT out. I think we can afford a loss to one of either ND, FSU or Clemson as long as they are close. IMO, a loss to uga happens too late in the season and would probably eliminate us. We do have to win at least 11 regular season games and the ACCCG to have a chance, though.
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The better chance would be a one loss to FSU or Clemp, having them go undefeated and then Tech beats them in the ACCCG.
 
Augusta_Jacket

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GTNavyNuke said:
If there are a few P5 conference champions with 2 losses I agree. I don't see that happening.

I am totally sold on ND being out with 1 loss since they don't have a conference championship to keep the voters attention at the end of the season. Thus they will have a weaker season than the P5 champs will probably have.

You may be right about us losing an early game and then coming back to beat that team (Clemson or FSU) in the ACCCG to make the play offs. All this being said, I think we only have a ~3% chance of winning out so I don't stress over it.
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At this point it is unlikely that the PAC-12 champion will be undefeated. Most likely will have two losses. It is probable that the Big-XII champ will have 1-2 losses and no CG to bump the rankings. ND with 1 loss is probably out for the same reason. B1G Champ will likely be undefeated. SEC Chump will likely have 1 loss. If GT has 1 loss, it will be on par with or ahead of all those teams in terms of SoS. Our schedule would dictate that an early season loss to ND, Clempson or FSU would be vindicated by a win in the ACCCG. If that happens, we would have gone 4/5 against top 15 teams. I don't see us being kept out of the playoffs with 1 loss unless that loss is late (uga, ACCCG), ugly (UVA, UNC, blown out by anyone), or there are multiple undefeated conference champions. With 1 loss, our SoS would trump any Big-XII SoS resume that wasn't undefeated.
 
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JacketintheBend

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Augusta_Jacket said:
At this point it is unlikely that the PAC-12 champion will be undefeated. Most likely will have two losses. It is probable that the Big-XII champ will have 1-2 losses and no CG to bump the rankings. ND with 1 loss is probably out for the same reason. B1G Champ will likely be undefeated. SEC Chump will likely have 1 loss. If GT has 1 loss, it will be on par with or ahead of all those teams in terms of SoS. Our schedule would dictate that an early season loss to ND, Clempson or FSU would be vindicated by a win in the ACCCG. If that happens, we would have gone 4/5 against top 15 teams. I don't see us being kept out of the playoffs with 1 loss unless that loss is late (uga, ACCCG), ugly (UVA, UNC, blown out by anyone), or there are multiple undefeated conference champions. With 1 loss, our SoS would trump any Big-XII SoS resume that wasn't undefeated.
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It feels like B1G and SEC are in, so really only 2 playoff spots to spread between ACC Big12 PAC12 & ND (should they get lucky).
 
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