Pitt - Final Series of Regular Season (Th/Fri/Sat)

[FredJacket]

Final regular season series is upon us.
Thurs - 6pm
Fri - 6pm
Sat - 1pm

The Jackets got to 30 wins tonight in Ohio and now get on a bus for Pittsburgh.
Finished the regular season with a 18-6 non-conference record. Conference record will be somewhere between 12-18 and 15-15.

Pitt has won all 4 of their home ACC series so far this year with a record of 8-3 (no 3 game sweeps.... they took Clemson series 2-0). Won 2-1 v LOU, UVA, & Duke.

Below is a good summary of what combinations of outcomes must occur for the Jackets to ensure a spot in the ACC Tournament. Thanks @bensaysitathome ...I like the way you put this together. All this assumes all series play all 3 scheduled games.

Good analysis. So, *theoretically* we could walk out of Pitt's turf nightmare field without a win and still make the ACC tourney? As I understand Fred's post:

if GT wins 3-0, we're in

if GT wins 2-1, we're in

if GT loses 1-2, and
Wake gets swept OR tarheels lose the series OR clemson doesn't sweep OR duke doesn't sweep,
and we're in

GT loses 0-3, and
tarheels get swept OR clemson loses the series OR duke loses the series
and we're in

Give me the Jackets and Hokies on Thursday night and put this thing to bed!

 

[senoiajacket]

I consider Pitt our personal house of horrors in baseball. This has been a wacky year with the unexpected happening as much as the expected it seems ………. So here’s hoping for a good outcome.

 

[bensaysitathome]

Listening to the D1 baseball podcast this morning. They called this series big; could be an elimination series when it's all said and done, even if Pitt needs it more thanks to their RPI.

"The team that loses that series is in trouble."

 

[senoiajacket]

Listening to the D1 baseball podcast this morning. They called this series big; could be an elimination series when it's all said and done, even if Pitt needs it more thanks to their RPI.

"The team that loses that series is in trouble."

Is there any precedence where they have taken a team with a losing record in conference? Wasn't there a "recent" UNC team that had a really could RPI but losing conference record and they missed the NCAAs?

 

[bensaysitathome]

Is there any precedence where they have taken a team with a losing record in conference? Wasn't there a "recent" UNC team that had a really could RPI but losing conference record and they missed the NCAAs?

For at-large bids, wikipedia lists the berths in a chart at least for the past two seasons. You made me curious, so I scrolled through it.

Last season LSU got in at 13-17.
2019 saw Auburn at 14-16, Florida at 13-17, TCU at 11-13, Tennessee at 14-16.

So, SEC got some benefit of the doubt. Hoping we can make it respectable with 14-16. 13-17 might be a stretch for this squad unless we do damage in the ACCT.

 

[senoiajacket]

For at-large bids, wikipedia lists the berths in a chart at least for the past two seasons. You made me curious, so I scrolled through it.

Last season LSU got in at 13-17.
2019 saw Auburn at 14-16, Florida at 13-17, TCU at 11-13, Tennessee at 14-16.

So, SEC got some benefit of the doubt. Hoping we can make it respectable with 14-16. 13-17 might be a stretch for this squad unless we do damage in the ACCT.

Oh, well ...... looks like we are in the wrong conference ;>)

Good to know at least one non-SEC team made it though.

 

[FredJacket]

Is there any precedence where they have taken a team with a losing record in conference? Wasn't there a "recent" UNC team that had a really could RPI but losing conference record and they missed the NCAAs?

In 2016, UNC finished the season #19 in RPI with an ACC record of 13-17. They did not make the NCAAT.

That was the last year only 10 ACC teams made the ACCT. UNC did not make the ACCT (finished 11th in the conference). The ACC reacted quickly by changing format of the ACCT (adding 2 teams and going to 4 pools of 3 teams). The thought was the ACC can/will have bubble teams as far down as 11th or 12th in the conference standings and those teams need an opportunity to improve their resumes at the ACCT. Many people will and do complain about the ACCT tournament format; but in this context it makes sense. The 12 participating teams get to play 2 additional games (minimum) against quality conference competition. The downside (with the format)... and if you're looking at the ACCT in isolation, of the 12 pool-play games held Tues-Fri of the tournament, 4 of those games will be guaranteed to have no bearing on who advances to semi-finals on Saturday. The upside... if you're looking big picture, those 4 games will likely involve teams who may need that win to boost resume (off bubble, higher seed, host, etc).

 

[78pike]

The downside, as far as Tech and the ACC Tournament is concerned, is if we come in seeded as the 3rd team in our bracket, the only way we can move forward is to sweep both games in bracket play.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I heard Wiley say we've never won a series at Pitt since they joined the ACC. So I had to check out the facts. Lost two series and tied one. Lost two extra inning games.

Here are the awful results @ Pitt (Joined ACC in 2013):
2014 Swept. L 4-3 (13), L 5-0, L 2-4
2016 W 6-3, L 13-6 one cancelled. So we didn't win the series but we didn't lose it.
2018 W 7-3, L 4-3 (14), L 6-5
2020 cancelled
2022 ?

D1 has us as a bubble team. The Pitt series and the ACC Tourney will decide if we are in or out.

 

[FredJacket]

The downside, as far as Tech and the ACC Tournament is concerned, is if we come in seeded as the 3rd team in our bracket, the only way we can move forward is to sweep both games in bracket play.

This is true of seeds 5-12 in the tournament. Only top team in each pool can advance with 1-1 record in pool play & that's only if all 3 teams go 1-1 on pool play.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Well our RPI went up to 25 after Kent State. I guess it had to be that the away game plus what others we have done outweighed the low RPI.

Our SoS dropped to 2. What is impressive is that this year our OOC RPI is 20, last year it was awful (139!).

We control our destiny. Always have. Best entertainment value around, so we won't make it easy.

Here is Pitt's RPI / stats, they won't make the NCAAs unless they win the ACC Tourney. They aren't very good in any RPI grouping. 12-8 at home is eehhhhh. (IMHO of course)

 

[GTNavyNuke]

This is why the series is important to us and Pitt: (from D1)

 

[FredJacket]

Memo to the Jackets entering this final weekend....

 

[bensaysitathome]

Game notes list Medich/Grissom/TBA

 

[FredJacket]

Game notes list Medich/Grissom/TBA

Hopefully TBA will be "who cares staff day to set up arms for post season."

 

[78pike]

Well our RPI went up to 25 after Kent State. I guess it had to be that the away game plus what others we have done outweighed the low RPI.

Our SoS dropped to 2. What is impressive is that this year our OOC RPI is 20, last year it was awful (139!).

View attachment 12435


We control our destiny. Always have. Best entertainment value around, so we won't make it easy.

Here is Pitt's RPI / stats, they won't make the NCAAs unless they win the ACC Tourney. They aren't very good in any RPI grouping. 12-8 at home is eehhhhh. (IMHO of course)
View attachment 12436

Amazing that they can have a winning record in the ACC but only be 7-5 against teams with RPI's above 200. Then again they had the opportunity to pad their win totals by going 6-2 against the bottom 3 teams in the league. While we didn't pad our stats against the bottom tier (didn't get to play BC but lost at Clemson and to Duke) we have shown the ability to win against anyone including the top pitchers in the league. Pitt baseball reminds me a lot of the Wake Forest women's basketball team. They play absolutely nobody out of conference in an attempt to pad their win total. Had they plated a decent OOC schedule they would be comfortably in the NCAA with a winning record in the ACC. Obviously the big difference is Pitt has been able to win games in conference while Wake's WBB team got their coach fired. Here's hoping we can put a whooping on Pitt's baseball team like our WBB team was able to put a butt hurt on Wake.

 

[CTJacket]

I heard Wiley say we've never won a series at Pitt since they joined the ACC. So I had to check out the facts. Lost two series and tied one. Lost two extra inning games.

Here are the awful results @ Pitt (Joined ACC in 2013):
2014 Swept. L 4-3 (13), L 5-0, L 2-4
2016 W 6-3, L 13-6 one cancelled. So we didn't win the series but we didn't lose it.
2018 W 7-3, L 4-3 (14), L 6-5
2020 cancelled
2022 ?

D1 has us as a bubble team. The Pitt series and the ACC Tourney will decide if we are in or out.

View attachment 12434

We definitely owe them - I don't think they were the better team 'on paper' any of those years, although I could be wrong.

 

[bensaysitathome]

We definitely owe them - I don't think they were the better team 'on paper' any of those years, although I could be wrong.

They've literally never finished ahead of us in the coastal standings. It would take a sweep this weekend (because of their one cancelled game), but we could keep that streak alive...

 

[CTJacket]

They've literally never finished ahead of us in the coastal standings. It would take a sweep this weekend (because of their one cancelled game), but we could keep that streak alive...

Well... here's to getting it done!!! Hopefully we can start tonight with Medich looking like his best self.

 

[GT33]

I hope we win at least 1 game. Let’s start tonight please.