Pitching

[MWBATL]

We have been speculating about what we have in terms of pitching and I think w enow have enough data to tell the story

I am using WHIP as the one primary stat to judge our pitching. It also passes the "eye test" as being pretty accurate based on my impressions. (NB-all data below based on having pitched MORE THAN 3 innings thus far)

So far we have 3 pitchers who have sub 1.00 WHIP's:

Thomas 0.77
Curry 0.96
Archer 0.99

and we have three more pitchers who are sub 1.50:

English 1.14
Datoc 1.23
Gibson 1.47

After that, it gets sketchy. We have one pitcher who is sub 2.00

Hughes 1.98

The rest of the staff is up there, and the numbers aren't pretty:

Lee 2.53
Schniederjans 2.75
Hurter 2.78
Shirah 3.10
Chapman 3.19

It is really hard to be effective yielding more than 2.5 runners per inning pitched. And it says a TON about our staff that Hughes is our 7th most effective pitcher on the whole staff.

For comparison, there are entire teams whose WHIP numbers are much better than ours. Clemson's staff WHIP was 1.21...N C State was 1.16...Auburn's was 1.19 going into last night's game....the whole depressing list is here

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/baseball/d1/current/team/597

Bottom line is that once you get past our top 5 pitchers, we're a hot mess. Given how innings are rationed in college ball, those 5 pitchers can cover at most 2 games a week (unless English gets converted to a starter as
@GTNavyNuke has argued for.

Some may have thought we had better pitching depth, but to me it absolutely looks like we are razor thin there.

 

[FredJacket]

We have been speculating about what we have in terms of pitching and I think w enow have enough data to tell the story

I am using WHIP as the one primary stat to judge our pitching. It also passes the "eye test" as being pretty accurate based on my impressions. (NB-all data below based on having pitched MORE THAN 3 innings thus far)

So far we have 3 pitchers who have sub 1.00 WHIP's:

Thomas 0.77
Curry 0.96
Archer 0.99

and we have three more pitchers who are sub 1.50:

English 1.14
Datoc 1.23
Gibson 1.47

After that, it gets sketchy. We have one pitcher who is sub 2.00

Hughes 1.98

The rest of the staff is up there, and the numbers aren't pretty:

Lee 2.53
Schniederjans 2.75
Hurter 2.78
Shirah 3.10
Chapman 3.19

It is really hard to be effective yielding more than 2.5 runners per inning pitched. And it says a TON about our staff that Hughes is our 7th most effective pitcher on the whole staff.

For comparison, there are entire teams whose WHIP numbers are much better than ours. Clemson's staff WHIP was 1.21...N C State was 1.16...Auburn's was 1.19 going into last night's game....the whole depressing list is here

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/baseball/d1/current/team/597

Bottom line is that once you get past our top 5 pitchers, we're a hot mess. Given how innings are rationed in college ball, those 5 pitchers can cover at most 2 games a week (unless English gets converted to a starter as
@GTNavyNuke has argued for.

Some may have thought we had better pitching depth, but to me it absolutely looks like we are razor thin there.

Good info. Ga Tech is currently 10th in WHIP in the ACC. Guess who is currently next to last and last? ND and BC respectively... both teams we do not face this year.

Interestingly... HBP is not in the numerator for WHIP.. only BBs and Hits. So....if that were included, the numbers go up slightly and more accurately reflect how many runners get on base per inning.

 

[MWBATL]

Good info. Ga Tech is currently 10th in WHIP in the ACC. Guess who is currently next to last and last? ND and BC respectively... both teams we do not face this year.

Interestingly... HBP is not in the numerator for WHIP.. only BBs and Hits. So....if that were included, the numbers go up slightly and more accurately reflect how many runners get on base per inning.

Full disclosure, my figures for the GT staff *do* include HBP.....the NCAA figures do not.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

We have been speculating about what we have in terms of pitching and I think w enow have enough data to tell the story

I am using WHIP as the one primary stat to judge our pitching. It also passes the "eye test" as being pretty accurate based on my impressions. (NB-all data below based on having pitched MORE THAN 3 innings thus far)

So far we have 3 pitchers who have sub 1.00 WHIP's:

Thomas 0.77
Curry 0.96
Archer 0.99

and we have three more pitchers who are sub 1.50:

English 1.14
Datoc 1.23
Gibson 1.47

After that, it gets sketchy. We have one pitcher who is sub 2.00

Hughes 1.98

The rest of the staff is up there, and the numbers aren't pretty:

Lee 2.53
Schniederjans 2.75
Hurter 2.78
Shirah 3.10
Chapman 3.19

It is really hard to be effective yielding more than 2.5 runners per inning pitched. And it says a TON about our staff that Hughes is our 7th most effective pitcher on the whole staff.

For comparison, there are entire teams whose WHIP numbers are much better than ours. Clemson's staff WHIP was 1.21...N C State was 1.16...Auburn's was 1.19 going into last night's game....the whole depressing list is here

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/baseball/d1/current/team/597

Bottom line is that once you get past our top 5 pitchers, we're a hot mess. Given how innings are rationed in college ball, those 5 pitchers can cover at most 2 games a week (unless English gets converted to a starter as
@GTNavyNuke has argued for.

Some may have thought we had better pitching depth, but to me it absolutely looks like we are razor thin there.

Great post. I think WHIP or strike % or a lot of other stats will converge to the came conclusion with enough data.

I have argued that English should be a starting pitcher because I felt that our starting pitching was more inadequate (half double negative there intended) than our relieving pitching. The tradeoff is that when Curry or Thomas start, someone has to be able to carry us through to a win. Putting all of our reliable pitchers into the starting role would only lead to winning the game until our relievers came in and blew it. So we do need reliable relievers for the 4 or so innings after the reliever gets to his pitch count.

I think Datoc, Archer, Lee and Gibson should be able to carry us through to wins relieving if we are ahead. So I guess that English should be a starter still thinking about your info. He won't be able to go very long but will get better. By next year he'll be up to a full game and get drafted.

As to the cut off line between competitive and a "hot mess", I think Hughes and below are below the "hot mess". Anything more than 1.5 people on base an inning is unacceptable to holding a slim lead.

Finally, one different but related pitching thought. If we get swept by VT or only win one game, then it's screw the marginal upper class-men pitchers at that point and play Fr and So. No more Pitts.

 

[THWG]

I was thinking about this today, but probably the biggest loss that no one is talking about is Shadday. If he didn't have the injury last year, then a rotation of Curry, Thomas, and Shadday would be deadly.

 

[THWG]

Great post. I think WHIP or strike % or a lot of other stats will converge to the came conclusion with enough data.

I have argued that English should be a starting pitcher because I felt that our starting pitching was more inadequate (half double negative there intended) than our relieving pitching. The tradeoff is that when Curry or Thomas start, someone has to be able to carry us through to a win. Putting all of our reliable pitchers into the starting role would only lead to winning the game until our relievers came in and blew it. So we do need reliable relievers for the 4 or so innings after the reliever gets to his pitch count.

I think Datoc, Archer, Lee and Gibson should be able to carry us through to wins relieving if we are ahead. So I guess that English should be a starter still thinking about your info. He won't be able to go very long but will get better. By next year he'll be up to a full game and get drafted.

As to the cut off line between competitive and a "hot mess", I think Hughes and below are below the "hot mess". Anything more than 1.5 people on base an inning is unacceptable to holding a slim lead.

Finally, one different but related pitching thought. If we get swept by VT or only win one game, then it's screw the marginal upper class-men pitchers at that point and play Fr and So. No more Pitts.

I also would put Carpenter into the category of being able to carry us in the pen. He just needs some time to shake off the rust.

 

[MWBATL]

Great post. I think WHIP or strike % or a lot of other stats will converge to the came conclusion with enough data.

I have argued that English should be a starting pitcher because I felt that our starting pitching was more inadequate (half double negative there intended) than our relieving pitching. The tradeoff is that when Curry or Thomas start, someone has to be able to carry us through to a win. Putting all of our reliable pitchers into the starting role would only lead to winning the game until our relievers came in and blew it. So we do need reliable relievers for the 4 or so innings after the reliever gets to his pitch count.

I think Datoc, Archer, Lee and Gibson should be able to carry us through to wins relieving if we are ahead. So I guess that English should be a starter still thinking about your info. He won't be able to go very long but will get better. By next year he'll be up to a full game and get drafted.

As to the cut off line between competitive and a "hot mess", I think Hughes and below are below the "hot mess". Anything more than 1.5 people on base an inning is unacceptable to holding a slim lead.

Finally, one different but related pitching thought. If we get swept by VT or only win one game, then it's screw the marginal upper class-men pitchers at that point and play Fr and So. No more Pitts.

Good thoughts. I see where you are coming from on English. I don't disagree, but it sure looks to me like Hall does.

The one place I disagree with you is Lee as a reliable reliever...check out his WHIP. Unless you are just arguing he has better stuff than that and we need to be patient with him, he has been hit hard so far this year. So that only leaves three relievers (Datoc, Archer, and (gulp) Gibson) to get us through two games with our two reliable starters....I think Hall may feel that's not enough (especially as Gibson is borderline in his WHIP)...hence why he is holding him in the bullpen so far this year.

My own take is that...not counting English, the guys we have with a below 1.50 WHIP are ...four....two starters and two relievers. Hence the dilemma we are discussing.

One other thought...it may be that Hall knows full well that our Sunday s starter is going to get banged around, but maybe he is hoping we play teams like Va Tech where maybe we can pick up a few wins by outhitting their Sunday guys......in which case maybe it is indeed more important to keep English in the 'pen to maximize our chances for Friday and Saturday wins.

All good give and take on this topic...

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I was thinking about this today, but probably the biggest loss that no one is talking about is Shadday. If he didn't have the injury last year, then a rotation of Curry, Thomas, and Shadday would be deadly.

What about Gooden falling off the charts? He should have been a So lock to start.

The other is Hughes but we've talked about him.

 

[MWBATL]

I also would put Carpenter into the category of being able to carry us in the pen. He just needs some time to shake off the rust.

He definitely needs more work...I wonder why he hasn't gotten much yet?

 

[MWBATL]

What about Gooden falling off the charts? He should have been a So lock to start.

The other is Hughes but we've talked about him.

Yeah...is he hurt? Ineffective in scrimmages? He has simply disappeared.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

He definitely needs more work...I wonder why he hasn't gotten much yet?

If one assumes that Hurter and Chapman are the best we have to start / in the bullpen, then you have an answer.

Obviously an engineering curriculum diminishes the ability to throw strikes which are difficult to hit. Out pitchers probably think too much.

 

[THWG]

What about Gooden falling off the charts? He should have been a So lock to start.

The other is Hughes but we've talked about him.

That's very true. I was just thinking about how well Shadday had pitched last year and I just think that having him in the rotation would be a huge boost.

 

[65Jacket]

What about Gooden falling off the charts? He should have been a So lock to start.

The other is Hughes but we've talked about him.

Gooden has never shown anything. Has to be one of the biggest busts we have ever had. I don't think he has been in a game this year.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Golden is being redshirted. I heard he was completely ineffective in the fall and preseason. I have also heard Jake Brace is being redshirted...but the more our guys struggle, the more there is a chance he may have that redshirt removed.

Although this may be unpopular, I’d go with Lee for the next couple of Sundays to start. He was our best starter for the last few weeks of last year’s regular season and he doesn’t walk people. Part of his problem is that he is very hittable and our defense has proven to not be that strong already. I’d give him the chance to regain that spot for at least the next two weekends. If he is terrible, then we can move on. Just my thoughts—I’d rather it be him than a freshman who may walk/hit 2 out of 5 batters.

 

[FredJacket]

Golden is being redshirted. I heard he was completely ineffective in the fall and preseason. I have also heard Jake Brace is being redshirted...but the more our guys struggle, the more there is a chance he may have that redshirt removed.

Although this may be unpopular, I’d go with Lee for the next couple of Sundays to start. He was our best starter for the last few weeks of last year’s regular season and he doesn’t walk people. Part of his problem is that he is very hittable and our defense has proven to not be that strong already. I’d give him the chance to regain that spot for at least the next two weekends. If he is terrible, then we can move on. Just my thoughts—I’d rather it be him than a freshman who may walk/hit 2 out of 5 batters.

I know you meant "Gooden" ...not Golden. The roster in the game notes since around Week 2 has designated him as "inactive this season"

You are not alone on the Lee thing. In a post-game interview earlier in the season, CDH stated pretty emphatically he thought both Lee and Schneiderjans were "just better" in relief than starting. He gave no amplifying info as to what got him to that conclusion. Particularly with Lee, I found that a little odd considering how well he pitched as a starter in 3 or so of his starts that ended 2017... including that complete game against Duke! Now...I'm just speculating...but at that time perhaps Hall had a little more confidence in the freshman he's attempted to place in the weekend starter role. Things change... and NOW I am curious who will be the 3rd starter this weekend. I know this... based on what I've observed to this point (which is much less than the coaches have observed)... there really does not seem to be a clear cut answer as to who should get that 3rd weekend start. Not right now, at least. I would like to see an "attempt" at something different. Seems in situations like this (all choices being equally unsettling)... you go with experience. Like Lee? Wait... Is Pitts available?? LOL! ... that's for @GTNavyNuke

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The problem of course is we don't have proven quality depth. Start with one of the Fr, let him walk / hit two batters and then bring Lee in. Plan on pitching 3 or 4 pitchers for the game and tell them they are limited to 2 or 3 innings. The outcome is likely a loss since at least one of the pitchers will blow up and give up 4 or more runs.

I really like Lee from how he did last year in spurts. But he seems to have regressed this year.

So right now we have a fighting chance to win with Curry and Thomas. After that ...... well we have seen what happens.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Golden is being redshirted. I heard he was completely ineffective in the fall and preseason. I have also heard Jake Brace is being redshirted...but the more our guys struggle, the more there is a chance he may have that redshirt removed. ..........

I'm not a fan of red shirting when a college baseball player is ineffective. It just eats up roster / scholarship positions. If he can't make it in four years, then we shouldn't make it five (e.g. Pitts). If he becomes good, he'll get drafted and leave at the 3 or 4 year point.

 

[FredJacket]

Question for the "arm protector/developer" types out there. English is over a year removed from TJ surgery (I think it was TJ?). On Sunday... he started; and according to CDH, his pitch limit was 45. That usually equates to around 3 innings which is what he did (on 39 pitches, I think). Assuming no setback... how quickly will that pitch count ramp up? ...and assuming he'll start every weekend (no pitching appearances going forward mid-week or otherwise). Do you add 5 pitches a week, 10? If its 10-12 per week that's about an inning a week (that's efficient pitching, though). That would put him to quality start (6-7 innings) territory by the middle of the ACC schedule. Is that about right? I really don't know at all... I'm curious.

 

[THWG]

Question for the "arm protector/developer" types out there. English is over a year removed from TJ surgery (I think it was TJ?). On Sunday... he started; and according to CDH, his pitch limit was 45. That usually equates to around 3 innings which is what he did (on 39 pitches, I think). Assuming no setback... how quickly will that pitch count ramp up? ...and assuming he'll start every weekend (no pitching appearances going forward mid-week or otherwise). Do you add 5 pitches a week, 10? If its 10-12 per week that's about an inning a week (that's efficient pitching, though). That would put him to quality start (6-7 innings) territory by the middle of the ACC schedule. Is that about right? I really don't know at all... I'm curious.

After the way he performed this past weekend, I would up it to 50 pitches next weekend. Then, probably 10-15 the week after and one week around 75. When he can get a couple of games around 75 under his belt, I would completely turn him loose after that.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

After the way he performed this past weekend, I would up it to 50 pitches next weekend. Then, probably 10-15 the week after and one week around 75. When he can get a couple of games around 75 under his belt, I would completely turn him loose after that.

It probably depends a lot on how he feels today and tomorrow. I have no idea what we'll do. But VT let their pitchers go to 120 pitches.

As long as he is effective, cut him loose. Same with Curry and Thomas. I think more than damaging the arm what is limiting is losing control. Either walks or hittable strikes.