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<blockquote data-quote="bobongo" data-source="post: 553155" data-attributes="member: 3893"><p>I'd say your example of 4th and one from your own 30 in the first quarter is debatable as to whether one should punt or go for it.</p><p></p><p>The statistical odds are nearly 80% that you'll make the first down. If you punt it 40 yards and they return it 5 yards (about average, I guess), they'll have it on their 35. From there, they have a nearly 40% chance of scoring. Of course, you have to factor in the relative strength of defenses and offenses of each team, among other factors. If you have a strong defense and a weak offense, you probably should punt.</p><p></p><p>But I think there is strong statistical evidence that you should go for the first down, on average. There have been exhaustive statistical analyses that show it is right to go for a first down in most situations where it is fourth and one, no matter where you are on the field. The closer you are to your goal line, the closer they will be if you punt. Of course, if you're in field goal range, that's a different situation entirely.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="bobongo, post: 553155, member: 3893"] I'd say your example of 4th and one from your own 30 in the first quarter is debatable as to whether one should punt or go for it. The statistical odds are nearly 80% that you'll make the first down. If you punt it 40 yards and they return it 5 yards (about average, I guess), they'll have it on their 35. From there, they have a nearly 40% chance of scoring. Of course, you have to factor in the relative strength of defenses and offenses of each team, among other factors. If you have a strong defense and a weak offense, you probably should punt. But I think there is strong statistical evidence that you should go for the first down, on average. There have been exhaustive statistical analyses that show it is right to go for a first down in most situations where it is fourth and one, no matter where you are on the field. The closer you are to your goal line, the closer they will be if you punt. Of course, if you're in field goal range, that's a different situation entirely. [/QUOTE]
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