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<blockquote data-quote="LibertyTurns" data-source="post: 552966" data-attributes="member: 789"><p>The decision matrix is not as simple as taking 1 or 2 situations and applying that to your overall chances of success. You’re approaching like if you called heads twice and lost, you’d call heads again because your odds improved. It doesn’t. It’s still 50-50.</p><p></p><p>Football Outsiders has an abundance of data collected over thousands of football games, Pro & college. The data is fairly clear. Going for it on 4th & short is the most favorable choice a coach can make from a game management standpoint, unless as I stated before there’s some mitigating circumstances such injury of key player(s), timeclock situation, etc. </p><p></p><p>My position is if we train properly & are organized, understand our strengths and weaknesses and those of our opponents, we should be no worse than an average team therefore our odds should reflect the average of all other teams combined with respect to whether or not going for it or punting is warranted. 4th & 3 under most circumstances the statistically favorable choice is going for it.</p><p></p><p>We all have opinions & this is mine. I hate punting and was thrilled we had a coach that trusted his players enough to execute. The new coach will have a philosophy on game management. If he does something different and it works, I’ll like that strategy just as much.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="LibertyTurns, post: 552966, member: 789"] The decision matrix is not as simple as taking 1 or 2 situations and applying that to your overall chances of success. You’re approaching like if you called heads twice and lost, you’d call heads again because your odds improved. It doesn’t. It’s still 50-50. Football Outsiders has an abundance of data collected over thousands of football games, Pro & college. The data is fairly clear. Going for it on 4th & short is the most favorable choice a coach can make from a game management standpoint, unless as I stated before there’s some mitigating circumstances such injury of key player(s), timeclock situation, etc. My position is if we train properly & are organized, understand our strengths and weaknesses and those of our opponents, we should be no worse than an average team therefore our odds should reflect the average of all other teams combined with respect to whether or not going for it or punting is warranted. 4th & 3 under most circumstances the statistically favorable choice is going for it. We all have opinions & this is mine. I hate punting and was thrilled we had a coach that trusted his players enough to execute. The new coach will have a philosophy on game management. If he does something different and it works, I’ll like that strategy just as much. [/QUOTE]
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