Overrated/Underrated Fan Cliche

takethepoints

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I would add here that we need to be careful when we look at Tech's stats last year. Several fonts have brought up our games with Miami and Pitt. We lost both of those games due to sheer bum luck and nothing else. We played what was probably our best overall game last year against Miami (you can check; we led them in everything) and lost because JT fumbled the ball for scoop sixes on successive drives. That rivals the 2014 Pitt game in terms of luck only this time against us. The Pitt game was, if anything, even worse. We make a great defensive play on a pass down field and tip the ball into the hands of the Pitt TE, the one player who was behind the D. The ball was headed for their WR who was perfectly covered. Again, this is sheer bum luck (though we had some too). Or see our entire 2015 season: play it again with the team that showed up for the spring game and we probably win 8 - 9. Nobody could predict the flood of injuries that destroyed that team's prospects.

This is, I think, a problem with the small sample size in football seasons. Like Billy Beane says in Moneyball, "My <common vulgarism for excrement> will get you to the playoffs; what happens there is sheer luck." Too often in college football the results are due to luck, but the season is too short for that to even out. Or for the stats to reflect accurately.
 

Sideways

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vamosjackets said:
You gotta math that junk. As AE87 states above, ppd (points per drive) and ypp (yards per play) are the superior stats for measuring the strength of a defense. It takes out many other conflating factors like TOP, bad offenses, turnovers, field position, etc. Of course one also would be best served by factoring in the strengths of the opposing offenses to tell the most accurate tale, but that is a more difficult challenge to get right.

Being top 30 in ppd and/or ypp is an extremely significant stat, whether measuring offense or defense.

Turnover margin is obviously important too. But, a great defense can even make that stat less significant. If you're a great defense, you may not get any turnovers, but if you also don't allow any points, then you're going to win. So, winning/losing the turnover margin isn't as significant if your defense is stout. For our defense the last several years, turnover margin is a huge factor because that's been one of our best ways we could get stops.
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Is there a stat for: Stop em when you gotta stop em? Asking for a friend.
 

Sideways

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PBR549 said:
Our average was 24 per game.
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Did we win more than we lost? 24 ppg is not bad but if we can just a little bit better it would make all the difference in the world. I just think we tend to do better with games in the teens or twenties rather than up and down video game shootouts. That ridiculous game with UNC a few years ago that set all kinds of ACC offensive records notwithstanding. We had a streak of four or five games with Miami where we moved the ball consistently and scored lots of points but still lost. (This was prior to the 2014 game)
 

Skeptic

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tech_wreck47 said:
Of course TOP is always nice and can help with wins but im still going with TOP as just a tad overrated . Main reason is we showed this past season we could win games without having a large difference in TOP. Imagine what we would have done with a top 30 D. That's at least two more wins imo. And a stat we don't put much emphasis on would probably be the TOP for the opposing offense, at times our D was on the field, for what felt like forever. They get off the field faster and they will be fresher and be able to stay competitive the whole game to give themselves a chance to be a top 30 D, so TOP and top 30 D kinda go together I guess.
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Maybe it is time to acknowledge that in this day of high powered, high scoring offenses that can romp up and down the field seemingly at will, TOP is no longer a valid measure or predictor. We can begin to see it when the good guys would run six or seven minutes off the clock to score, then seemingly within the space of a timeout, watch the opponent tack up six. I know that personally I pay very little heed any more. Maybe points per possession?
 
tech_wreck47

tech_wreck47

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Skeptic said:
Maybe it is time to acknowledge that in this day of high powered, high scoring offenses that can romp up and down the field seemingly at will, TOP is no longer a valid measure or predictor. We can begin to see it when the good guys would run six or seven minutes off the clock to score, then seemingly within the space of a timeout, watch the opponent tack up six. I know that personally I pay very little heed any more. Maybe points per possession?
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I would agree, imo offense and defense efficiency are some of the best stats to look at on how good a teams offense or defense really is. I want to say we were around 21st of offense efficiency as 96th on defense.
 
vamosjackets

vamosjackets

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AE 87 said:
It's an opponent adjusted efficiency stat during non-garbage time.
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I'd like to know how they're doing the adjustment and what efficiency measure they use ... (based on points or yards?) ... points could be affected by turnovers and field goal kicker skill, but it also rewards teams that are good, not just at moving between the 20's but still excel when the field is constrained (our offense is good at this). I suppose I could probably look it up myself, so I'll quit being lazy and not ask you a question I could answer myself.
 
vamosjackets

vamosjackets

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This is all I could find:
"The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. Approximately 20,000 possessions are contested annually in FBS vs. FBS games. First-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores are filtered out. Unadjusted game efficiency (GE) is a measure of net success on non-garbage possessions, and opponent adjustments are calculated with special emphasis placed on quality performances against good teams, win or lose. Overall SOS ratings represent the likelihood than an elite team (two standard deviations better than average) would go undefeated against the given team's entire schedule.

Offensive FEI (OFEI) is value generated per offensive non-garbage possession adjusted for the strength of opponent defenses faced. Defensive FEI (DFEI) is value generated per opponent offensive non-garbage possession adjusted for the strength of opponent offenses faced. Special Teams Efficiency (STE) is the average value generated per non-garbage possession by a team's non-offensive and non-defensive units."

So, I can't tell by that description what the calculation is. Maybe they're trying to keep it proprietary.
 
AE 87

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vamosjackets said:
This is all I could find:
"The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. Approximately 20,000 possessions are contested annually in FBS vs. FBS games. First-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores are filtered out. Unadjusted game efficiency (GE) is a measure of net success on non-garbage possessions, and opponent adjustments are calculated with special emphasis placed on quality performances against good teams, win or lose. Overall SOS ratings represent the likelihood than an elite team (two standard deviations better than average) would go undefeated against the given team's entire schedule.

Offensive FEI (OFEI) is value generated per offensive non-garbage possession adjusted for the strength of opponent defenses faced. Defensive FEI (DFEI) is value generated per opponent offensive non-garbage possession adjusted for the strength of opponent offenses faced. Special Teams Efficiency (STE) is the average value generated per non-garbage possession by a team's non-offensive and non-defensive units."

So, I can't tell by that description what the calculation is. Maybe they're trying to keep it proprietary.
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Right. The exact formula seems to be proprietary. This stat focuses on scoring, drive efficiency.

Their other stat, S&P, focuses on play efficiency. 2016: #44 O, #57 D
 
Vespidae

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I think the most underrated stat is the number of explosive plays per game, where "explosive play" is a play that is a gain of 30 yards or more.

Studies were done that show that most drives fizzle out after ten plays ... usually due to penalties, fumbles, etc. In other words, you ... not your opponent .. makes a mistake. (Bear Bryant was a big believer in this.)

When I see a big play by Tech ... and then check penalties, t/o's, etc ... there's usually an inverse relationship. I think it's the most underrated stat and very few folks even report it.
 

Sideways

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Ibeeballin said:
Going into the 10th offseason of the CPJ regime, we are all optimistic for a great 2017 season, but we tend to hang on two stats that many believe would make us championship level team.

That would be:
TOP & Top 30 Defense

Which stat is the most overrated/overblown in your humble opinion?

Also, what is a stat that,we as fans, don't put enough emphasis on?
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Anything I say on GT Swarm is overrated

Anything that Vamos, Longest Day, Ballin, or Boomer says is underrated.

There, that should settle it.
 

bke1984

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Tough to pick just one. The most important collection to me are:

Turnover margin
Yards per play (offense and defense)
Points per possession (offense and defense)

First measures how often you have the ball
Second measures how explosive you are or how explosive other teams are against you
Third measures how well you score or how well other teams score in you.

I bet if you ran correlation on these combined numbers to wins and losses you'd see a very clear trend.

All of the totals are overrated (yards, points, turnovers, etc.) because so many variables affect them that are being tossed away.
 

Sideways

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Vespidae said:
I think the most underrated stat is the number of explosive plays per game, where "explosive play" is a play that is a gain of 30 yards or more.

Studies were done that show that most drives fizzle out after ten plays ... usually due to penalties, fumbles, etc. In other words, you ... not your opponent .. makes a mistake. (Bear Bryant was a big believer in this.)

When I see a big play by Tech ... and then check penalties, t/o's, etc ... there's usually an inverse relationship. I think it's the most underrated stat and very few folks even report it.
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This is very true. One year I was watching Tech play Maryland during the Joe Ham era with a Georgia fan. Tech got a turnover on its side of the 50 with under 30 seconds to play. My UGA friend remarked confidently that Tech should try and move to within field goal range. I told him to forget about it Hamilton will go for the TD to Kelly Campbell or Dez White. Sure enough, the explosive Jackets went 60 or so yards in less than 30 seconds to score on a TD pass to one or the other. Game was basically over. Explosive plays not only score TDs but are often a dagger to the opponent's heart.
 
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