Overrated/Underrated Fan Cliche

[alentrekin]

Have to add turnover margin. Most possessions equals more TOP, more points. I would kill for Tech to field a top 30 D given Tech's offensive efficiency!

Yes!

My guess is that turnover +/- and points per possession +/- would show you a lot.

 

[JorgeJonas]

For our offense, I always look at YPA passing. If we're around 9.0 YPA, the offense is damn near impossible to stop. I also tend to think third down defense is pretty important. If we can hold teams to under 40%, it means our offense is on the field, bleeding the clock, wearing them down, and their offense is not scoring.

 

[AE 87]

Most stats have value when properly used. Generally speaking the per game stats give you a sense of relative strength, but imo are way overrated given differing tempos.

I think TOP is typically ok, but can be really off when a team scores quickly.

Obviously, I like points/drive, especially against power5 opponents. I also like yards per play.

 

[jeffgt14]

I must be just now noticing but LMFAO at that avatar.

Anyways, like stated previously, you can go back 10 years and look at nothing but turnover margin per game and pretty much guess whether we won or lost at about a 90% rate.

 

[tech_wreck47]

Top 30 Total D is based on yds. 400 yds/GM won't have you Top 30, but only giving up 17-21points/gm is still great defense. Top 30 scoring would be better for us imo

I think TOP/death marches are overrated too. Too many have hitched their wagon to the CPJ Death March. Our big play ability has the same impact as 15 play drive on the opponent.

TO Margin is huge, being over 50% on 3rd down has been great to us, 1st down offense/defense

I see, so maybe a better gauge would be top 30 in D efficiency?

 

[stech81]

I find stats to be good for losers. Winners don't care they just want to win.

 

[AE 87]

I find stats to be good for losers. Winners don't care they just want to win.

LOL. Just win. Top notch strategy, there.

 

[vamosjackets]

LOL. Just win. Top notch strategy, there.

Need the Jason Bateman - Dodgeball meme.

 

[vamosjackets]

Top 30 Total D is based on yds. 400 yds/GM won't have you Top 30, but only giving up 17-21points/gm is still great defense. Top 30 scoring would be better for us imo

I think TOP/death marches are overrated too. Too many have hitched their wagon to the CPJ Death March. Our big play ability has the same impact as 15 play drive on the opponent.

TO Margin is huge, being over 50% on 3rd down has been great to us, 1st down offense/defense

You gotta math that junk. As AE87 states above, ppd (points per drive) and ypp (yards per play) are the superior stats for measuring the strength of a defense. It takes out many other conflating factors like TOP, bad offenses, turnovers, field position, etc. Of course one also would be best served by factoring in the strengths of the opposing offenses to tell the most accurate tale, but that is a more difficult challenge to get right.

Being top 30 in ppd and/or ypp is an extremely significant stat, whether measuring offense or defense.

Turnover margin is obviously important too. But, a great defense can even make that stat less significant. If you're a great defense, you may not get any turnovers, but if you also don't allow any points, then you're going to win. So, winning/losing the turnover margin isn't as significant if your defense is stout. For our defense the last several years, turnover margin is a huge factor because that's been one of our best ways we could get stops.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Maybe not a stat per se but imo the most overblown thing is death marches. There are times where I feel like we have fans that would rather us score 3 points on a 7 minute drive than 7 points on a 3 minute drive. Death marches are great, and in certain situations they are preferable to quick scores, but it's a two sided sword. Death marches aren't great if you are the team that is playing from behind. If you are down by 10 in the second half, you don't really want to be death marching it. But if you could effectively move the ball in bigger chunks, you should have been doing so all game.

Underrated. Probably 1st down defense/offense.

Death Marches have always meant ending in a td to me. If that's the case, they are preferable to quick scores because you are shortening the total number of possessions which put lots of pressure on the opposition to score every time they touch it. The biggest killer to DM's are TO's. Holding onto the ball for 7 minutes is bad news if you don't get a score because you limit your own possessions as well.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

It's interesting to see all the comments surrounding offensive stats when all my (limited) research indicates a higher correlation to winning to defensive stats.

 

[Sideways]

"Ballin" is correct, as usual, 17 to 21 points given up by a defense in this day and age should be enough to win 95% of the time. Really, for our team if we hold opponents to about 24 points we should win. Hold our opponents to say 3 TDs and a field goal, throw in a turnover or two along with one three and out per half should be enough assuming we don't turn the ball over even more or don't score touchdowns. Seems like a modest goal but how often have we been able to do this lately?

 

[takethepoints]

I just got through re-reading Moneyball and was again struck by how much Tech - and the other under center spread option teams - fit the paradigm. I don't know if there is a football equivalent to OBP or the slugging percentage. Further, since football is much more dependent on team play then baseball is, I'm not sure there is much reason to try to come up with anything but the team stats cited here.

However, the way we recruit and the way we play have Moneyball written all over them. The best example I can think of is Matthew taking a knee on the on-side kick in the VT game. 9 teams out of 10 would have gone for the TD; there was an open field in front of him. But he hit the dirt because the game was already out of reach and Coach told everybody on the hands team that that's what he wanted.

So, no, I don't think TOP is overrated. It's what our entire team is built around and what makes it work. Mind, I'd like to see the D do well too. There I agree that turnovers are the secret for us; Tech will never have a D like Bammer's.

 

[Ibeeballin]

I just got through re-reading Moneyball and was again struck by how much Tech - and the other under center spread option teams - fit the paradigm. I don't know if there is a football equivalent to OBP or the slugging percentage. Further, since football is much more dependent on team play then baseball is, I'm not sure there is much reason to try to come up with anything but the team stats cited her

However, the way we recruit and the way we play have Moneyball written all over them. The best example I can think of is Matthew taking a knee on the on-side kick in the VT game. 9 teams out of 10 would have gone for the TD; there was an open field in front of him. But he hit the dirt because the game was already out of reach and Coach told everybody on the hands team that that's what he wanted.

So, no, I don't think TOP is overrated. It's what our entire team is built around and what makes it work. Mind, I'd like to see the D do well too. There I agree that turnovers are the secret for us; Tech will never have a D like Bammer's.

I'm not sure that this is necessary true. Maybe on given years due to personnel on either side of the ball. But I always considered us a high-scoring, high-efficiency rushing attack on offense

 

[Fatmike91]

I'm not sure that this is necessary true. Maybe on given years due to personnel on either side of the ball. But I always considered us a high-scoring, high-efficiency rushing attack on offense

Time of possession (TOP) is ancillary. It measures a combination of how our opponents defense chooses to play us, and how well our defense is doing.

We are a high efficiency offensive team. Offensive efficiency stats matter (like Points per drive ). If team pressure us, we score fast. We did that a lot last year and had more explosive plays and less TOP. Thats OK. Just score if that is what the defense gives us. A few years ago Miami took away the outside and forced us to run up he middle. That whole game was 7 touches. That's OK too.

Our TOP would go up (potentially a lot) if our defense is stout. Look at the first half vs. VPISU last year. Did they have the ball for the full :48 seconds in the first half?

For me the stats are efficiency (PPD on O, PPD on D, and to some extent TOP).

/

 

[PBR549]

"Ballin" is correct, as usual, 17 to 21 points given up by a defense in this day and age should be enough to win 95% of the time. Really, for our team if we hold opponents to about 24 points we should win. Hold our opponents to say 3 TDs and a field goal, throw in a turnover or two along with one three and out per half should be enough assuming we don't turn the ball over even more or don't score touchdowns. Seems like a modest goal but how often have we been able to do this lately?

Our average was 24 per game.

 

[Ibeeballin]

Our average was 24 per game.

Look the wins of teams who gave up <21
1 Alabama 13.7 = 14
2 Michigan 14. = 10
3 Ohio State 15.5 = 11
4 Wisconsin 15.6 = 11
5 LSU 16.0 = 8
6 Florida 16.8= 9
7 App State 17.8= 10
8 Auburn 18.5= 8
9 Iowa 18.5= 8
10 Washington 18.8= 12
11 Clemson 19.3 = 14
12 W Michigan 19.7 = 13
13 Miami (FL) 19.8= 9
14 Temple 19.8 = 10
15 Stanford 20.4 = 10
16 BYU 20.6 = 8
17 Arkansas St 20.9 = 8

That's an avg of 10.1 wins just by taking a FG away. I'm pretty sure it's safe to say we would've won Pitt and would've been competitive vs UNC with a better scoring D

 

[PBR549]

Look the wins of teams who gave up <21
1 Alabama 13.7 = 14
2 Michigan 14. = 10
3 Ohio State 15.5 = 11
4 Wisconsin 15.6 = 11
5 LSU 16.0 = 8
6 Florida 16.8= 9
7 App State 17.8= 10
8 Auburn 18.5= 8
9 Iowa 18.5= 8
10 Washington 18.8= 12
11 Clemson 19.3 = 14
12 W Michigan 19.7 = 13
13 Miami (FL) 19.8= 9
14 Temple 19.8 = 10
15 Stanford 20.4 = 10
16 BYU 20.6 = 8
17 Arkansas St 20.9 = 8

That's an avg of 10.1 wins just by taking a FG away. I'm pretty sure it's safe to say we would've won Pitt and would've been competitive vs UNC with a better scoring D

What was our average we scored per game?

 

[Ibeeballin]

What was our average we scored per game?

28

 

[stech81]

28

And 3 of our 4 loses we scored 21 or under. Only the lose to Pitt was over 28 (34) . Maybe I was wrong to blame the defense , we do need more 3 and outs on defense.