Overrated/Underrated Fan Cliche

[Ibeeballin]

Going into the 10th offseason of the CPJ regime, we are all optimistic for a great 2017 season, but we tend to hang on two stats that many believe would make us championship level team.

That would be:
TOP & Top 30 Defense

Which stat is the most overrated/overblown in your humble opinion?

Also, what is a stat that,we as fans, don't put enough emphasis on?

 

[tech_wreck47]

Going into the 10th offseason of the CPJ regime, we are all optimistic for a great 2017 season, but we tend to hang on two stats that many believe would make us championship level team.

That would be:
TOP & Top 30 Defense

Which stat is the most overrated/overblown in your humble opinion?

Also, what is a stat that,we as fans, don't put enough emphasis on?

Of course TOP is always nice and can help with wins but im still going with TOP as just a tad overrated . Main reason is we showed this past season we could win games without having a large difference in TOP. Imagine what we would have done with a top 30 D. That's at least two more wins imo. And a stat we don't put much emphasis on would probably be the TOP for the opposing offense, at times our D was on the field, for what felt like forever. They get off the field faster and they will be fresher and be able to stay competitive the whole game to give themselves a chance to be a top 30 D, so TOP and top 30 D kinda go together I guess.

 

[OldJacketFan]

Have to add turnover margin. Most possessions equals more TOP, more points. I would kill for Tech to field a top 30 D given Tech's offensive efficiency!

 

[RyanS12]

I have to go with top 30 D. We can hold the ball most of the like we did Miami in 14 but if we turn the ball over in the red zone or settle for a FG and the D can't stop the opponent for getting 7 then TOP is worthless. Sometimes it feels like we had to play a perfect offensive game and score a TD every possession because the D wasn't going to put us in many positions to win.

 

[stech81]

[QUOTE="Ibeeballin, post: 305162, member: 29"

Which stat is the most overrated/overblown in your humble opinion?

[/QUOTE]
Overrated stats : QB's rating , Defensive rankings in rushing and passing ( unless your number 1 in both )

Best stat : Wins

 

[Coloradojacket]

Clear answer, Turn over margin. I don't mind giving up some yards if we are plus 10 to plus 20 on turnover margin. That means 7-14 more points per game. Or means 10 possessions for us, 8 for the opposition.

 

[Ibeeballin]

Top 30 D has be the most overrated imo and it's not close.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Any single stat in isolation is pretty irrelevant, imo, so it's hard to pick one that is most so. Just look at total offense, for example. Texas Tech led the nation in total offense with 567 ypg and they went 5-7. Total defense looks like a better barometer with Alabama and Michigan #1 and #2 as well as a slew of other good teams in the top 10. But BC lost 6 games with the #9 ranked defense in the land.

As far as offensive stats go, I'd like to see how yards on first down correlates to scoring and offensive efficiency. (I was going to say how it relates to wins and losses, but that depends heavily on D and ST's.) So here's what I found out:

Clemson led the nation in first down offense. Shocker. In addition, a lot of really good scoring offenses were also high in this stat. Below I listed the top ten teams in first down offense and where they ranked in scoring in parenthesis.

1. Clemson (14)
2. Tulsa (6)
3. Texas Tech (5)
4. La Tech (2)
5. W. Mich (9)
6. W. Kentucky (1)
7. Wash. St (18)
8. Cal (22)
9. Va Tech (33)
10. Oklahoma (3)

After spending a good bit of time looking at a bunch of stats individually and how they were able to predict final rankings, I couldn't find one that stood out above the rest. It really is a mix of stats that determines success and not one more than any other. Maybe scoring defense if I had to pick.

 

[tech_wreck47]

Top 30 D has be the most overrated imo and it's not close.

I don't see how, and it not be close. Like I said above we didn't dominate the TOP this year and still won 9 games, with a top 30 D we would have probably won 2 more games. Now, I will say I don't think it has to be a top 30 d give me a top 40 or even 50 and I think we still would have won those 2 other games. I do agree with others that turnovers are majorly overlooked, we did a lot better with that towards the end of the season and it showed.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Here's a stat for ya:

Scoring Offense ranking + Scoring Defense ranking
Lowest sum should mean lowest final ranking.... right.... nope.

Top 5 AP finishers:
1. Clemson (really good O / great D)
14 + 10 = 24

2. Alabama (really good O / great-best D)
15 + 1 = 16

3. USC (all right O / all right D)
36 + 38 = 74 WOW

4. Washington (*best combined offense and defense)
8 + 8 = 16 (great O / great D)

5. Oklahoma (great O / crappy D)
3 + 68 = 71

Good news.... if OK can do, so can we!!!

 

[vamosjackets]

Top 30 D has be the most overrated imo and it's not close.

Top 30 in what? PPG, YPG, PPP, PPD, YPP ... ?

 

[Ibeeballin]

Top 30 in what? PPG, YPG, PPP, PPD, YPP ... ?

Top 30 total D

 

[Jmonty71]

To me... TOP is vastly underrated. The longer you control the ball, the less time the opponent has to score. This (usually) forces them to go away from the norm, to score. Defense is also something we are weak on. Even if win the TOP, it requires the defense to make stops. I agree with a post I saw on here, if we were a top 30 defense, we'd have 2-3 more wins. I easily agree with that. I think Pitt and Miami would had been wins. UNC and Clemson were just plain out bad games.

Just my 2 pennies.

 

[Longestday]

Turnover is hands down the top category. Look at our seasons and you can tell how they went by turnover margin.

If I had another category to win it would be.........................................
3rd down stops!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (GT fans have 3rd down PSD syndrome) (3rd down conversions for GT = death march)

I know, I know, you can score in 1st and second down. Improve 3rd down stops and the Top 50 defense can come into play.

Scoring efficiency (defense/offense) is key to comparing teams as the data is normalized (add in adjusted scoring efficiency for improved comparisons) .

Last but not least is the scoring stat... you win every time you score more than the team you play against.

 

[vamosjackets]

Top 30 total D

What is "total D" measuring? My guess is that it's measuring either YPG (yards per game) or PPG (points per game). If I'm wrong about that, please correct me.

 

[Sideways]

Of course TOP is always nice and can help with wins but im still going with TOP as just a tad overrated . Main reason is we showed this past season we could win games without having a large difference in TOP. Imagine what we would have done with a top 30 D. That's at least two more wins imo. And a stat we don't put much emphasis on would probably be the TOP for the opposing offense, at times our D was on the field, for what felt like forever. They get off the field faster and they will be fresher and be able to stay competitive the whole game to give themselves a chance to be a top 30 D, so TOP and top 30 D kinda go together I guess.

TOP is generally overrated in today's game. It is critical, though, when you have a weak defense and depend on running the football. For most teams it is overrated but for our team it is important, if not crucial, in protecting a defense that has not been good since 2008 or so. As another poster stated, 3rd down stops and turnover margin are more important in today's high octane, no huddle oriented offenses. It should be noted that rightly or wrongly, Tech's TOP is the one thing that opposing fan bases hate and fear the most about our offense. A Virginia Tech fan once posted something like: "Triple Option is where fourth quarters go to die" In 2014, we limited Miami to two or three possessions in the entire second half, of course, they turned the ball over but still that is pretty impressive. Get turnovers, limit the other team's possessions, keep penalties to a minimum, and run that damn bone is a winning formula for teams that don't have four and five stars galore.

 

[lv20gt]

Maybe not a stat per se but imo the most overblown thing is death marches. There are times where I feel like we have fans that would rather us score 3 points on a 7 minute drive than 7 points on a 3 minute drive. Death marches are great, and in certain situations they are preferable to quick scores, but it's a two sided sword. Death marches aren't great if you are the team that is playing from behind. If you are down by 10 in the second half, you don't really want to be death marching it. But if you could effectively move the ball in bigger chunks, you should have been doing so all game.

Underrated. Probably 1st down defense/offense.

 

[Ibeeballin]

I don't see how, and it not be close. Like I said above we didn't dominate the TOP this year and still won 9 games, with a top 30 D we would have probably won 2 more games. Now, I will say I don't think it has to be a top 30 d give me a top 40 or even 50 and I think we still would have won those 2 other games. I do agree with others that turnovers are majorly overlooked, we did a lot better with that towards the end of the season and it showed.

Top 30 Total D is based on yds. 400 yds/GM won't have you Top 30, but only giving up 17-21points/gm is still great defense. Top 30 scoring would be better for us imo

I think TOP/death marches are overrated too. Too many have hitched their wagon to the CPJ Death March. Our big play ability has the same impact as 15 play drive on the opponent.

TO Margin is huge, being over 50% on 3rd down has been great to us, 1st down offense/defense

 

[Ibeeballin]

And @lv20gt is in my mind

 

[GaTech4ever]

I think Red Zone scoring % is really important. If drives stall once you're that deep in the field, it can be extremely deflating (although I do realize the other team doesn't get great field position). Tech has been great in RZ scoring for the most part under CPJ. Can't have a death march that doesn't result in points! Gives the D confidence and the O may start to second guess themselves.