AE 87
Helluva Engineer
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I tend to focus on football outsiders' F/+ stat. They use it for their official ranking. It's derived from the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) calculated independently for offense, defense, and special teams and the S&P+ which is calculated independently for offense and defense. The FEI is, generally, an opponent-adjusted points/drive rating. S&P+ is also opponent adjusted and combines a play SUCCESS (50% of nec yds-to-gain on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd and 4th) measure with an explosiveness measure of expectated of points for a particular yard line. You can find more info at their site.
However, after looking at our season so far, it seems to me that opposition DFEI and OFEI might be a helpful indicator. Here's how our season looks so far:
Now, if I were more industrious, I would have looked at our points/drive for each game rather than total points. However, I think this table suggests, in ball park terms, the types of numbers we can expect based on opposition D and O.
Some anomalies stand out. For example, the offenses of Miami and Pitt look a lot better in OFEI than their scores against us, but we gained 2 interceptions and 6 fumbles in those two games respectively. Also, for whatever reason, Miami didn't run on us a lot. I think we also only had like 8 drives each in the Miami game, iirc.
Still looking at the DFEI for NCSU and georgie, we should be able to score. I'm thinking easily 40's+ vs NCSU and 35+ vs georgie. Looking at CU's DFEI, I'm thinking 21-24 would be expected (remember we had a pick 6 vs vpi).
Eye-balling the opposition OFEI for the last 3 games, it really seems to matter whether we've had real improvement on D. We've only held d'oh U and UVA under 20 all year.
If we match last week's performance vs UVA against the apparently comparable NCSU, then we should beat them handily, 45-13 or so. If we do, then we may be able to keep CU to the 20's and that game become's a pick-em (give it to the home team). If NCSU scores more than 20, it wouldn't bode well for us vs CU. Georgie's offense looks on par with those of d'oh U and Pitt, so we may need to force some turnovers, but that game should be close, probably like 35-30 GT.
However, after looking at our season so far, it seems to me that opposition DFEI and OFEI might be a helpful indicator. Here's how our season looks so far:
Now, if I were more industrious, I would have looked at our points/drive for each game rather than total points. However, I think this table suggests, in ball park terms, the types of numbers we can expect based on opposition D and O.
Some anomalies stand out. For example, the offenses of Miami and Pitt look a lot better in OFEI than their scores against us, but we gained 2 interceptions and 6 fumbles in those two games respectively. Also, for whatever reason, Miami didn't run on us a lot. I think we also only had like 8 drives each in the Miami game, iirc.
Still looking at the DFEI for NCSU and georgie, we should be able to score. I'm thinking easily 40's+ vs NCSU and 35+ vs georgie. Looking at CU's DFEI, I'm thinking 21-24 would be expected (remember we had a pick 6 vs vpi).
Eye-balling the opposition OFEI for the last 3 games, it really seems to matter whether we've had real improvement on D. We've only held d'oh U and UVA under 20 all year.
If we match last week's performance vs UVA against the apparently comparable NCSU, then we should beat them handily, 45-13 or so. If we do, then we may be able to keep CU to the 20's and that game become's a pick-em (give it to the home team). If NCSU scores more than 20, it wouldn't bode well for us vs CU. Georgie's offense looks on par with those of d'oh U and Pitt, so we may need to force some turnovers, but that game should be close, probably like 35-30 GT.
