Opening Lines Out

[JorgeJonas]

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/13154574/college-football-golden-nugget-releases-cfb-games-year

I'm pretty shocked at some of the opening lines in our games. +2 against Notre Dame, +3 against Clemson, -14 against Pitt, pick 'em against FSU, -10 against UVA, -9.5 against VT, -6 against Miami, and +1 against UGA.

The one that screams out to me is the Virginia Tech game. I am expecting close contests against Clemson, Notre Dame, FSU, and UGA, but I am definitively not expecting more than a one possession game against Virginia Tech. Their defense is usually good enough to keep them in it. I also figured at Clemson would be a bigger spread, and at Notre Dame would be close to -6.5. Love to know y'all's thoughts.

 

[305jacket]

Some very serious respect for this team only being given 6 pts combined against top 15 teams like ND, Clem, F$U and uGA.

Pretty happy to see that. Also think that VT +9.5 is the surest of bets on that board.

Another notable: Clemson was favored in every game.

 

[JazzyD95]

ND is horribly overrated IMO. they are the media darling and so they start off every season ranked way higher than they should be. I think we should be favored going into the game

 

[cuttysark]

Perhaps we should ask the all time college football Genius Phil Steele his thoughts on these Georgia Tech early season betting lines as he's the bozo everyone runs to for his insightful analysis.

In the interim, my thoughts about the Hokies are this:

Just think how different that game last year with the Hokies might have been if it was played in November when we usually have VT on the schedule? Because the first part of the season Justin Thomas was just learning and getting comfortable with this offense.

That would be my opinion on that early line. BTW, Thanks for posting.

 

[Ibeeballin]

I guess this speaks to the brutal schedule everyone wants to proclaim we have.

Surprised that Clemson game is not pick me after they lost another OLineman

I had to steal this from TOS

So if you're keeping track Clemson has now lost:
- Offensive Coordinator
- 4/5 starting OL
- 6/10 2-deep OL
- 4/4 starting DL
- 6/8 2-deep DL
- 8/9 starting linemen (offense/defense)
- 12/18 2-deep linemen (offense/defense)
- 8/11 starting defense

I don't care how many 4* or 5* they have plugging in that is a tremendous lost. We would be saying 6-6 at best if it was us

 

[potatohead]

I guess this speaks to the brutal schedule everyone wants to proclaim we have.

Surprised that Clemson game is not pick me after they lost another OLineman

I had to steal this from TOS

So if you're keeping track Clemson has now lost:
- Offensive Coordinator
- 4/5 starting OL
- 6/10 2-deep OL
- 4/4 starting DL
- 6/8 2-deep DL
- 8/9 starting linemen (offense/defense)
- 12/18 2-deep linemen (offense/defense)
- 8/11 starting defense

I don't care how many 4* or 5* they have plugging in that is a tremendous lost. We would be saying 6-6 at best if it was us

I don't understand the love affair with Clemson this year. Clemson's defense last year was outstanding. By the end of last season, I think they had the best defense in the country. Had Watson played early stayed healthy who knows what they could've done. But that entire defense is pretty much gone.

Now that their O Line is in tatters, Watson may be running for his life and thats the last thing you want if you're a clemson coach/fan. I still think they'll be a good team, a typical Clemson team. Win games they shouldn't, lose ones they shouldn't. But they're not CFP contenders unless Watson turns out to be the next Heisman winner.

 

[cuttysark]

IIRC last year Watson blew out his knee against us while making a cut. With a rag tag newly minted offensive line I shudder to think what might happen to him when he actually gets HIT.

 

[AE 87]

The +2 ND & +3 CU is their home field advantage. We get it v FSU & georgie.

It looks like they believe us improving on D more than vpi on O.

 

[CuseJacket]

Say what you want about how spreads are weighted (popular opinion vs. predicted outcome).... to this layman this says Vegas thinks GT is better than every team on the schedule on a neutral field except for FSU and UGA.

I don't see 9.5 points against VT; that seems most aggressive. I think all of the posted lines are aggressively in our favor relative to my expectations except for FSU, Clemson, and UGA.

Overall I'll take it. If nothing else it solidifies this board isn't just a bunch of homers. Impartial observers are also drinking the juice.

And as much as I enjoy examining spreads and believe in them as an indicator of likely performance, all it represents are odds as of 6/26/2015. Numbers will change once the season kicks off, injuries stack up, and teams come together during the season.

 

[Wrecking Ball]

The table seems to have been set for us. Clemson devastated, UGA at the worst passing game they've had since 2006, our best QB in some time who should only get better...

I really, really, really, really, really hope we don't wet the bed. I know inductive reasoning is flawed, but prior experience just makes me nervous about this season!

 

[Skeptic]

IIRC last year Watson blew out his knee against us while making a cut. With a rag tag newly minted offensive line I shudder to think what might happen to him when he actually gets HIT.

Take care dismissing such injuries as somehow unbecoming of toughness. Eight words: Broderick Snoddy, making cut, broken leg, same game.

 

[cuttysark]

Not dimishing his injury but the way Clemson fans talk about how they would have won the game if he was still at QB causes me to get the impression that he is invincible and walks on water.

I doubt he has Ronnie Lott or **** Butkus toughness. Snoddy's injury doesn't happen often and it was truly a "freak" event.

 

[Skeptic]

Not dimishing his injury but the way Clemson fans talk about how they would have won the game if he was still at QB causes me to get the impression that he is invincible and walks on water.

I doubt he has Ronnie Lott or **** Butkus toughness. Snoddy's injury doesn't happen often and it was truly a "freak" event.

I don't want to hijack the thread, as they say. But the two injuries were almost exactly the same: planting hard while running left to turn upfield. One wrecked a knee, one wrecked a leg. They both were "freak" events, having nothing to do with toughness. So Clemson loves its QB? GT loves its QB, too. I wish he had stayed in the game, Snoddy too; it would have been a better game that I think we still would have won. But I don't blame them for regret. We had it at least once, when Nesbitt went down after throwing a big pick against VT. It is natural. Let's hope everybody is healthy this year.

 

[UgaBlows]

I guess this speaks to the brutal schedule everyone wants to proclaim we have.

Surprised that Clemson game is not pick me after they lost another OLineman

I had to steal this from TOS

So if you're keeping track Clemson has now lost:
- Offensive Coordinator
- 4/5 starting OL
- 6/10 2-deep OL
- 4/4 starting DL
- 6/8 2-deep DL
- 8/9 starting linemen (offense/defense)
- 12/18 2-deep linemen (offense/defense)
- 8/11 starting defense

I don't care how many 4* or 5* they have plugging in that is a tremendous lost. We would be saying 6-6 at best if it was us

Holy crap they are screwed on the OL, and are def no doubt taking a step down on Def this year.

 

[33jacket]

I guess this speaks to the brutal schedule everyone wants to proclaim we have.

Surprised that Clemson game is not pick me after they lost another OLineman

I had to steal this from TOS

So if you're keeping track Clemson has now lost:
- Offensive Coordinator
- 4/5 starting OL
- 6/10 2-deep OL
- 4/4 starting DL
- 6/8 2-deep DL
- 8/9 starting linemen (offense/defense)
- 12/18 2-deep linemen (offense/defense)
- 8/11 starting defense

I don't care how many 4* or 5* they have plugging in that is a tremendous lost. We would be saying 6-6 at best if it was us

clemson is on the SEC plan where logic does not matter.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

clemson is on the SEC plan where logic does not matter.

Preach it, brother.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Question: are any of our opponents, or their fanbases, looking forward to playing us? Do any of them have us penciled in as an automatic W? I think not. In fact, two of our biggest opponents are dreading it, FSU and ND. I'm sure Clemson and the mutts are secretly boot shaking, too.

 

[dhbartlett12]

The table seems to have been set for us. Clemson devastated, UGA at the worst passing game they've had since 2006, our best QB in some time who should only get better...

I really, really, really, really, really hope we don't wet the bed. I know inductive reasoning is flawed, but prior experience just makes me nervous about this season!

are ugas QB options really this bad?

 

[Northeast Stinger]

This is going to appear as shear sophistry, and perhaps it is, but bear with me.

Here is a thought experiment. Let's say Tech has a given number of sure wins on its schedule coupled with 6 unknown games -ND, Clemson, Miami, VT, FSU and UGA. Further let's say that Tech is going to be competitive with every single opponent this year (not a stretch in my mind). Finally let's assume that Tech is a very good team but not a dominating team and therefore Tech will not win all of its games.

So how do these six games play out? There are three "typical ways." One way is that Tech makes some bone head plays, has injuries, the refs blow some major calls, the ball takes a funny bounce and the coaches make some bad decisions. The result of that combination of calamities is that Tech wins only 1 game out of the six and finishes 7-5 on the season.

Now let's assme a different scenario in which virtually everything that can go right for Tech goes right and Tech wins 5 games out of this string of 6 games. Then Tech finishes 11-1.

Most of the "voters" on this site have chosen a middle course in which Tech wins half of these games going 3-3 and finishes the season at 9-3. A reasonable choice all things considered.

But let's stir the pot. Assume that everything we have said previously about the season in general holds except for the following change. What if Clemson, Miami and VT have unusually bad seasons for them? What if each of them is as likely a win for Tech as Tech's other "sure wins" that most people on here have already factored in? That means the key games for Tech come down to ND, FSU and UGA.

Now let's apply the same logic as before that Tech is not going to win every game but with regard to these 3 opponents there is a best case, a worst case and a "middle of the road" case. So Tech could lose to all 3 (worst case) lose 2 (middle case) or lose 1 (best case).

All of this gives us a new range, if you will, of possible outcomes for the season.
Worst case is now 9-3 rather than 7-5
Middle case is now 10-2 rather than 9-3
Best case remains at 11-1

All of this is to say our middle case of a 10-2 season is what we might reasonably project given that it is off season, we have too much time on our hands to think about this and we are all just making stuff up anyway.

 

[Skeptic]

Aside from making my head hurt, it seems to me that combination of scenarios takes for granted wins against UNC -- lost in '14 -- Duke -- lost in '14 -- Virginia -- very uneven before winning in '14, and Pittsburgh, which we stumbled against after an incredible run of five straight fumbles and recoveries, something I have never seen before, ever. (What's the point spread on that one?) UNC is going to be better and we can't always count on the fallacy of high expectations, and though I think we should beat Duke, I thought so last year, too. So I'll stick with mine: nine wins an excellent year, double digits rise to greatness, and eight with one big win along the way the minimum to feel decent about the year. (And if it is to be eight, then Georgia has to be one of them. Nine or more I can stomach a loss, maybe because one of my HS coaches was a running back at that place that shall be unnamed.