Offense vs. Defense. Who wins?

[Randy Carson]

Team A has the #1 offense and the #2 defense in the country.
Team B has the #1 defense and the #2 offense in the country.

Who wins and why?

Okay, here's the thing: in chess, the first player to move, White, has the advantage, and among equal players, white usually wins. Moving first is an advantage. In football, the offense knows what it plans to do and gets a receiver to a spot on the field first or creates a mis-match at the point of attack while the defense is reacting. Does the O have the edge?

However, I read (online so it must be true) that in NFL matchups like this, Defense seems to prevail. Is that really the case? Why?

 

[Sheboygan]

In my uneducated opinion, I give the nod to Team B. It's difficult for me to provide any specific reasons, but in my loooong time of watching all levels of football, it seems to me that , everything else being close to equal, a team with a stronger defense will prevail. Although you might have factored in ST also. Take the recent playoff game between SF and GB. According to most "experts", the Packers would prevail, predominantly because of their better offense. However, SF's defense and ST play won the game for them. Just my 2 cents.....

 

[stech81]

In order to answer that question I would need to know the color of their uniforms? Without that information the question can't be answered.

 

[JacketFan137]

it’s impossible to say just off ranking alone, especially based on college rankings. the number 1 offense is likely a big 12 team who’s whole division frankly isn’t good at all so it’s easy to run up the score

the number 1 defense is more than likely an SEC/Big10 team who’s conference is tougher anyway so their #2 offense is probably better

that being said in both college and nfl you want the team with the better qb. if the teams seem to be close the team with the better qb normally wins.

also with today’s rule changes the better defense is only better to a certain extent. the offense is normally what wins/gets you to the championship. look at the last few super bowls and college football playoffs outside of georgia

 

[Jmonty71]

Team A has the #1 offense and the #2 defense in the country.
Team B has the #1 defense and the #2 offense in the country.

Who wins and why?

Okay, here's the thing: in chess, the first player to move, White, has the advantage, and among equal players, white usually wins. Moving first is an advantage. In football, the offense knows what it plans to do and gets a receiver to a spot on the field first or creates a mis-match at the point of attack while the defense is reacting. Does the O have the edge?

However, I read (online so it must be true) that in NFL matchups like this, Defense seems to prevail. Is that really the case? Why?

I grew up on the defensive side of the ball. My coach used to say, if they can't score, they can't win. So I tend to lean towards having a better defense often wins the most games. Things like turnovers and 3 and outs will beat most every offense.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

The rules have changed to favor the offense so all other things being equal then take the offense. But things aren’t always equal or stay equal. Injuries happen where a team like Bama lost their two best WR’s. And what most folks don’t realize is that when two equal opponents play it’s usually turnovers that determine the winner. I definitely love having a strong defense but give me a Joe Ham type offense any day and you’ll have to outscore me.

 

[jgtengineer]

It really depends on what number 1 defense vs no 1 offense.

If the defense is no1 because it stuffs the run and forces an offense to be one dimensional on 3rd down while playing a weak schedule? and the no1 offense is that way because of a quick passing attack and good vertical passing game.

Alabama vs uga SEC championship game.

If its a Dynamic defense vs an offense that has to rely on the run and play action

Alabama vs uga NC

 

[JacketFan137]

The rules have changed to favor the offense so all other things being equal then take the offense. But things aren’t always equal or stay equal. Injuries happen where a team like Bama lost their two best WR’s. And what most folks don’t realize is that when two equal opponents play it’s usually turnovers that determine the winner. I definitely love having a strong defense but give me a Joe Ham type offense any day and you’ll have to outscore me.

we saw it on display sunday with bills chiefs. bills had the best pass defense in the nfl but when mahomes and that offense is that hot it often doesn’t make a difference. too many people living in nostalgia land reminiscing about the bears and black shirts of nebraska

 

[JacketOff]

I mean you basically had that question answered for you already. UGA was the #3 offense and #1 defense. Alabama was the #2 offense and #6 defense. Bama was clearly the better team when they were healthy, and they were in position to win again without 2 of their best playmakers until the blocked FG.

I also think Ohio State (the #1 offense) would’ve given Georgia fits. They would’ve been a much tougher matchup for them than Michigan was. Georgia’s defensive strength was in the front 7. Their secondary was sketchy, and Bama exposed that in their first matchup. I have no doubts OSU would’ve done the same, but don’t know if their defense would’ve held up well enough to win.

IMO there’s no question the better offense will win the game the overwhelming majority of the time, given that the 2 teams are relatively even on defense. ie Ohio State was #42 on defense so I’m not sure their offense could overcome that deficiency, but they would give themselves a chance

 

[RamblinRed]

The issue with this thought exercise is that just saying #1 and #2 is not sufficient.
Just how dominating are those #1 and #2 respectively.

Say its a year where the defenses have been generally dominate but the offenses haven't. Then I want the #1 defense. But if the reverse is true I want the #1 offense.

Also, as others have pointed out, it is often a game of matchups. If the #1 defensive team is a great defense but its pass defense is the weakest part and the #2 offense the strongest part is its passing game. I'd probably favor that #2 offense over the #1 defense due to matchups.

 

[Lee]

I think another interesting question would be #1 offense and #50 defense vs #50 offense and #1 defense.

It would look like the following (I used scoring offense and defense):

Ohio State’s offense with UTSA’s defense

Vs.

Texas Tech’s offense with Ugag’s defense

 

[JacketFan137]

I think another interesting question would be #1 offense and #50 defense vs #50 offense and #1 defense.

It would look like the following (I used scoring offense and defense):

Ohio State’s offense with UTSA’s defense

Vs.

Texas Tech’s offense with Ugag’s defense

georgias defense was truly exceptional this year so i would give it to that team this year but it took an absolutely historic defense for me to consider that

in almost any other year the top offense is the side to go with

i would also add too this that frequently the number 1 offense in college these days is typically a high flying hurry up scheme so their defense is often facing more possessions than a lot of other teams. while their per game numbers don’t look as good it is often because they’re team is giving the other team the ball back so much en route to dropping 50 points

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Did not read all the responses because to me the question is too hypothetical. There were years when it was said Tech could beat anybody if they played a perfect game. Problem is, playing a perfect game rarely happens. The question seems to assume that teams always play up to their ranking. In real life games that often doesn’t happen.

A number 1 defense can make a mistake that costs the game. A number 1 offense can have an off day.

Football in recent years seems less to be about team stats and more about individual play makers. Your team could be having an off day but you might have a play maker who makes a sensational play that saves you. A particular defender can make a game saving interception even though the defense as a team was getting pushed all over the field.

I honestly don’t think there is a definitive answer to your question but thanks for posting and getting people talking.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

we saw it on display sunday with bills chiefs. bills had the best pass defense in the nfl but when mahomes and that offense is that hot it often doesn’t make a difference. too many people living in nostalgia land reminiscing about the bears and black shirts of nebraska

A truly "hot" quarterback and a couple of great receivers along with a competent offensive line will decimate any defense with the rule changes being what they are in favor of the offense. All too often, I see a quarterback drill a pass to a receiver who was well covered but the pass is just too good. As things currently stand, defensive backs can only cover these receivers for a few seconds so the outcome of many games, like the UGA - Alabama championship game comes down to pressuring the other team's quarterback. UGA consistently got more pressure, not necessarily sacks, but they were in Bryce's grill more often than the Tide.

 

[JacketFan137]

A truly "hot" quarterback and a couple of great receivers along with a competent offensive line will decimate any defense with the rule changes being what they are in favor of the offense. All too often, I see a quarterback drill a pass to a receiver who was well covered but the pass is just too good. As things currently stand, defensive backs can only cover these receivers for a few seconds so the outcome of many games, like the UGA - Alabama championship game comes down to pressuring the other team's quarterback. UGA consistently got more pressure, not necessarily sacks, but they were in Bryce's grill more often than the Tide.

would also add that not having metchie and not having jameson williams for most of the game was what did them in. even when blitzed those guys were able to get open. bama’s remaining WRs just didn’t have enough to win matchups.

i also think in general if you have a bad defense it’s more likely you get a big turnover than it is if your horrendous offense finds a way to score enough points to win.

 

[YJMD]

Team A has the #1 offense and the #2 defense in the country.
Team B has the #1 defense and the #2 offense in the country.

Who wins and why?

Okay, here's the thing: in chess, the first player to move, White, has the advantage, and among equal players, white usually wins. Moving first is an advantage. In football, the offense knows what it plans to do and gets a receiver to a spot on the field first or creates a mis-match at the point of attack while the defense is reacting. Does the O have the edge?

However, I read (online so it must be true) that in NFL matchups like this, Defense seems to prevail. Is that really the case? Why?

The chess analogy isn't really applicable here. The game of chess ends (let's ignore clock and draws here) when someone gets checkmated. Like NFL overtime going first gives you the initiative. But football during regulation doesn't work that way. Going second is strategically advantageous because you start the second half with the ball with extra knowledge on how you need to play to win.

The analogy really is more like playing a chess match where one game you have white, the other black. In this case, you would want white in the second game because you'll know more about what score you need for your place in the tournament, and there are better winning chances with white. Otherwise it doesn't matter which order you play in because either way you'll get one game with the black pieces and one with the white.

If you want to go with the chess analogy -- which style is better? Play gambits and sacrifices and try to checkmate as aggressively as possible; or play positional chess, trade off your pieces, and try to convert an end game up a pawn? Well, you didn't see Magnus Carlsen playing any gambits in the WC did you? But the best college football team ain't nowhere the equivalent of the best chess player in history. The person who usually wins, though, is the better player regardless of their individual style.

 

[iceeater1969]

In order to answer that question I would need to know the color of their uniforms? Without that information the question can't be answered.

Assume no fans cheering
Also - who is the juice crew going to cheer for on 3rd down? Sure they make a lot of noise but who are they cheering for?

 

[Techster]

Not the same scenario as above, there's an interesting real world comparison:

Offensive FEI:
UGA #3
Bama #2

Defensive FEI:
UGA #1
Bama #6

We all know how that ended in the SEC Championship game and the National Championship.

 

[IM79]

that being said in both college and nfl you want the team with the better qb. if the teams seem to be close the team with the better qb normally wins.

Kirby says not so fast. I can win with a walk on.

 

[lv20gt]

Well, you didn't see Magnus Carlsen playing any gambits in the WC did you?

I'm almost positive there was at least one Catalan line of the QGD in the WC. Also, he is using that to great success in the tata steel tournament going on.