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<blockquote data-quote="RamblinRed" data-source="post: 523303" data-attributes="member: 1776"><p>I think Smathis's post is quite realistic and filled with good points and legit numbers.</p><p></p><p>I actually think those who believe we should have won 9 games under Johnson this year or in 2019 are being unrealistic. 7 wins is right about what this team should have won. It was a horrible defensive team - the worst in ypp, ppg and 3rd down % allowed against P5 opponents in Johnson's 11 seasons. Then you lose 7 starters off of it and expect to be better the following season. That is not rational.</p><p></p><p>On offense this year's team's metrics are so skewed by a couple of games, it was so bi-modal. What do you think the OFEI for L'ville, VT and UNC is vs the OFEI for all the other P5 games GT played this year. I'd bet it was Top 10 for the first three and in the bottom half for the other 7. Offensively this team struggled to score more than 20 points against everyone that wasn't a sub 100 defense.</p><p></p><p>Offensively the team has been less than avg (From a Johnson at GT perspective) since the 2014 season. Looking at performance relative to the Johnson at GT avg, this past season's team was better than only the 2015 squad in terms of ypp and ypg and bottom half in 3rd down %. The L'ville game basically messes with the avg and makes the ppg higher than Johnson's avg GT offensive squad. Take out that game and it was the third worst scoring team of his tenure. The 2017 season was bottom 3rd in ppg, was below avg in ypp and right around avg in ypg and 3rd down %. 2016 was a year with a below avg offense in ppg, ypg and 3rd dwon %, but above avg in ypp and TO's. Looking only at comparison's to his full tenure GT hasn't had an above avg Johnson offense since 2014. Now Johnson's offenses were always by far the best part of his program, but they have struggled against P5 opponents more in the last 4 years than at any other time in his tenure.</p><p></p><p>If you think they should have won Pitt and Duke then you also have to allow they they coulda/shoulda lost UVA and Miami.</p><p>Ironically there is a stronger correlation between the defense and our best seasons under Johnson than the offense. Our 4 best seasons included our 2 best offenses (2009, 2014) but also 2 of ours 4 worst. But those 4 seasons were also the four best defensive squads we fielded under Johnson.</p><p>With the exception of the outlier 2014 season this has basically been a .500 program for the last 7 years. To expect it to vary too much from that for the next couple of years doesn't feel reasonable to me.</p><p></p><p></p><p>I think both ends of the spectrum are being unfair. No one should accept a 3-4 win team the next couple of seasons. That would be a sign of a bad transition. But no one should be expecting 8-9 wins either. That is too high based on what this team has done the last 4 seasons. 5-7 wins is the likely area of performance for the next 2 years based on past performance and what is returning.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="RamblinRed, post: 523303, member: 1776"] I think Smathis's post is quite realistic and filled with good points and legit numbers. I actually think those who believe we should have won 9 games under Johnson this year or in 2019 are being unrealistic. 7 wins is right about what this team should have won. It was a horrible defensive team - the worst in ypp, ppg and 3rd down % allowed against P5 opponents in Johnson's 11 seasons. Then you lose 7 starters off of it and expect to be better the following season. That is not rational. On offense this year's team's metrics are so skewed by a couple of games, it was so bi-modal. What do you think the OFEI for L'ville, VT and UNC is vs the OFEI for all the other P5 games GT played this year. I'd bet it was Top 10 for the first three and in the bottom half for the other 7. Offensively this team struggled to score more than 20 points against everyone that wasn't a sub 100 defense. Offensively the team has been less than avg (From a Johnson at GT perspective) since the 2014 season. Looking at performance relative to the Johnson at GT avg, this past season's team was better than only the 2015 squad in terms of ypp and ypg and bottom half in 3rd down %. The L'ville game basically messes with the avg and makes the ppg higher than Johnson's avg GT offensive squad. Take out that game and it was the third worst scoring team of his tenure. The 2017 season was bottom 3rd in ppg, was below avg in ypp and right around avg in ypg and 3rd down %. 2016 was a year with a below avg offense in ppg, ypg and 3rd dwon %, but above avg in ypp and TO's. Looking only at comparison's to his full tenure GT hasn't had an above avg Johnson offense since 2014. Now Johnson's offenses were always by far the best part of his program, but they have struggled against P5 opponents more in the last 4 years than at any other time in his tenure. If you think they should have won Pitt and Duke then you also have to allow they they coulda/shoulda lost UVA and Miami. Ironically there is a stronger correlation between the defense and our best seasons under Johnson than the offense. Our 4 best seasons included our 2 best offenses (2009, 2014) but also 2 of ours 4 worst. But those 4 seasons were also the four best defensive squads we fielded under Johnson. With the exception of the outlier 2014 season this has basically been a .500 program for the last 7 years. To expect it to vary too much from that for the next couple of years doesn't feel reasonable to me. I think both ends of the spectrum are being unfair. No one should accept a 3-4 win team the next couple of seasons. That would be a sign of a bad transition. But no one should be expecting 8-9 wins either. That is too high based on what this team has done the last 4 seasons. 5-7 wins is the likely area of performance for the next 2 years based on past performance and what is returning. [/QUOTE]
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