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<blockquote data-quote="RamblinRed" data-source="post: 522481" data-attributes="member: 1776"><p>My expectation for next year is to be 6-6 +-1. Yr 2 could easily be worse than yr 1 due to scheduling.</p><p></p><p>Starting yr 3 I will start really paying attention and deciding how things are going (sort of like the basketball team where Yr 4 and 5 have to be the payoffs).</p><p></p><p>Long term I largely expect what we have had for the last 20+ years. Hopefully slightly better but i'll be surprised if its alot better. </p><p></p><p>i think both 'sides' are purposely underplaying the other side to push their argument up. </p><p>This was not a very good offense this year. The last 4 games it avg 277 ypg and 4.7 ypp. Basically whenever this offense played a team with a competent defense it struggled, alot. it's numbers are largely puffed up due to a handful of outlier games against awful defenses. Without significant help from the defense or ST it was basically unable to score more than 21 pts against any solid defense. It's ypp and ypg against P5 opponents are better than only the 2015 year. GT's defense this year was arguably the worst of Johnson's tenure - worst ypp allowed, worst 3 down conversion allowed - basically its only saving grace was TO's.</p><p></p><p>I would take 7-5 next season right now, because frankly I don't think the program was headed in an overly positive direction, I think it was just treading water. GT is sub .500 against Coastal teams over the last 5 years (5th best winning % in Coastal games amongst 7 teams), it is sub .500 against P5 teams during that same period and actually extending back the last 9 years (48-52, i'm including BYU and ND as P5 teams). Using T-FR QB playing in the playoffs is also a red herring. Those were the top ranked QB's in their classes - GT has nothing remotely approaching that. It has some good young talent that is going to need time to improve both their skills and gain experience.</p><p></p><p>Those selling this as being a complete rebuild are also off. Other than 2015 this team has been competitive, though missing 2 bowls in 3 years was not a great look. If GT was to drop to 2-3-4 wins that would start to worry me. There is enough here imo to be competitive with Coastal teams from day 1, though probably not talented enough to win the Coastal (something GT hasn't done in the last 4 years). If GT was to win 8 next year I don't think that would be a miraculous job by Collins, just a very good one. </p><p></p><p>Johnson isn't retiring and leaving this program in the toilet - he is also not leaving it in the penthouse. He is leaving it as a very mediocre P5 program with so-so talent (not the big influx of talent that Johnson was able to inherit). It loses 5 starters on offense and 7 on defense from its last few games, so while there isn't a huge SR class, it is almost all in starting positions. There is very little 'proven' talent coming back. </p><p></p><p>I've always been a pragmatist and one who believes in looking hard at the numbers. To me looking at the results, looking at what is coming back, looking at the last 1/2 decade this has been a mediocre program that doesn't feel like it is likely to improve from that in 1 or 2 years. i think it takes at least 3 to start getting above the baseline we are at now. Whether Collins will be the coach to do that I have no idea, I hope he does, but we will only know that after 3-4 years imo. Anything before that is likely to be false positives or false negatives.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="RamblinRed, post: 522481, member: 1776"] My expectation for next year is to be 6-6 +-1. Yr 2 could easily be worse than yr 1 due to scheduling. Starting yr 3 I will start really paying attention and deciding how things are going (sort of like the basketball team where Yr 4 and 5 have to be the payoffs). Long term I largely expect what we have had for the last 20+ years. Hopefully slightly better but i'll be surprised if its alot better. i think both 'sides' are purposely underplaying the other side to push their argument up. This was not a very good offense this year. The last 4 games it avg 277 ypg and 4.7 ypp. Basically whenever this offense played a team with a competent defense it struggled, alot. it's numbers are largely puffed up due to a handful of outlier games against awful defenses. Without significant help from the defense or ST it was basically unable to score more than 21 pts against any solid defense. It's ypp and ypg against P5 opponents are better than only the 2015 year. GT's defense this year was arguably the worst of Johnson's tenure - worst ypp allowed, worst 3 down conversion allowed - basically its only saving grace was TO's. I would take 7-5 next season right now, because frankly I don't think the program was headed in an overly positive direction, I think it was just treading water. GT is sub .500 against Coastal teams over the last 5 years (5th best winning % in Coastal games amongst 7 teams), it is sub .500 against P5 teams during that same period and actually extending back the last 9 years (48-52, i'm including BYU and ND as P5 teams). Using T-FR QB playing in the playoffs is also a red herring. Those were the top ranked QB's in their classes - GT has nothing remotely approaching that. It has some good young talent that is going to need time to improve both their skills and gain experience. Those selling this as being a complete rebuild are also off. Other than 2015 this team has been competitive, though missing 2 bowls in 3 years was not a great look. If GT was to drop to 2-3-4 wins that would start to worry me. There is enough here imo to be competitive with Coastal teams from day 1, though probably not talented enough to win the Coastal (something GT hasn't done in the last 4 years). If GT was to win 8 next year I don't think that would be a miraculous job by Collins, just a very good one. Johnson isn't retiring and leaving this program in the toilet - he is also not leaving it in the penthouse. He is leaving it as a very mediocre P5 program with so-so talent (not the big influx of talent that Johnson was able to inherit). It loses 5 starters on offense and 7 on defense from its last few games, so while there isn't a huge SR class, it is almost all in starting positions. There is very little 'proven' talent coming back. I've always been a pragmatist and one who believes in looking hard at the numbers. To me looking at the results, looking at what is coming back, looking at the last 1/2 decade this has been a mediocre program that doesn't feel like it is likely to improve from that in 1 or 2 years. i think it takes at least 3 to start getting above the baseline we are at now. Whether Collins will be the coach to do that I have no idea, I hope he does, but we will only know that after 3-4 years imo. Anything before that is likely to be false positives or false negatives. [/QUOTE]
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