NCAA’s estimated probability of competing in professional athletics

[GTRambler]

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/estimated-probability-competing-professional-athletics

Wow!! Very daunting.

 

[Techster]

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/estimated-probability-competing-professional-athletics

Wow!! Very daunting.

Basically, put your kids in baseball and ice hockey!

On a serious note, our coaches need to show these stats to parents...show them their plan to develop their kids for the NFL to best of their abilities...but also show them how a GT degree can give them a better future off the field. GT grads don't need to compromise off the field success for on the field success. Our SAs can have the best of both worlds.

 

[smathis30]

Reminder that this includes all 3 divisions of college athletics as well.
Report goes further down to state 12% of power 5 draft eligible players were drafted. In other words, the average power 5 team roughly has 2 players/year drafted

 

[Techster]

Reminder that this includes all 3 divisions of college athletics as well.
Report goes further down to state 12% of power 5 draft eligible players were drafted. In other words, the average power 5 team roughly has 2 players/year drafted

That's still a little over 2% chance. Either way, terrible odds if you're throwing all your chips into the pot.

 

[smathis30]

That's still a little over 2% chance. Either way, terrible odds if you're throwing all your chips into the pot.

It’s 12% at where we’re at though. Odds aren’t great but at the end of the day it’s a skill based lottery. With that number jumping to ~60% for 5 star recruits and 25% for 4 star recruits, there’s measures in place for high schoolers to get a good estimate of there chances 3 years before they set foot on campus. Look at 4 and 5 stars who never transferred and started two years, and their chances almost double as well. 50% odds are something to try for, wouldn’t you think?

 

[Techster]

It’s 12% at where we’re at though. Odds aren’t great but at the end of the day it’s a skill based lottery. With that number jumping to ~60% for 5 star recruits and 25% for 4 star recruits, there’s measures in place for high schoolers to get a good estimate of there chances 3 years before they set foot on campus. Look at 4 and 5 stars who never transferred and started two years, and their chances almost double as well. 50% odds are something to try for, wouldn’t you think?

The stat I replied to is contradictory: Report goes further down to state 12% of power 5 draft eligible players were drafted. In other words, the average power 5 team roughly has 2 players/year drafted

If the average P5 team has roughly 2 players drafted per year, that's a little over 2%....not 12%. 2/85 = 2.35

I guess the key word being "draft eligible"...but even then that's JRs & SRs. Say half the roster 2/42 = 4.7 or roughly 5%

***

OK, so NCAA is accounting for ALL professional draft opportunities including leagues like the CFL.

Accounting for Arena League and CFL opportunities, the NCAA to Total Professional figures are estimated as 4.7% for Division I ([247+ 47] / 6,254), 7.9% for FBS ([233 + 34] / 3,398) and 12% for the five autonomous conferences ([183 + 19] / 1,735).

Yeah, I don't think kids are making professional aspirations to go to the CFL and Arena.

 

[Animal02]

Basically, put your kids in baseball and ice hockey!

On a serious note, our coaches need to show these stats to parents...show them their plan to develop their kids for the NFL to best of their abilities...but also show them how a GT degree can give them a better future off the field. GT grads don't need to compromise off the field success for on the field success. Our SAs can have the best of both worlds.

And then show them these stats.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&sou...FiMi&ust=1549898822534817&cshid=1549812418221

 

[Animal02]

That's still a little over 2% chance. Either way, terrible odds if you're throwing all your chips into the pot.

And getting drafted doesn't mean you make the team, nor last more than a couple of years.

 

[Techster]

And getting drafted doesn't mean you make the team, nor last more than a couple of years.

Exactly. The smart recruits understand that, and maximize their opportunities to go to the best situation (best academics + best football opportunities). Those are the kids GT should always be in the running for.

 

[Animal02]

Exactly. The smart recruits understand that, and maximize their opportunities to go to the best situation (best academics + best football opportunities). Those are the kids GT should always be in the running for.

Yep ...basically, if you are lower than a 2nd round pick, you have about a 20% chance of making it past year 4. That means you are 27 y.o and looking for a job.

 

[smathis30]

The stat I replied to is contradictory: Report goes further down to state 12% of power 5 draft eligible players were drafted. In other words, the average power 5 team roughly has 2 players/year drafted

If the average P5 team has roughly 2 players drafted per year, that's a little over 2%....not 12%. 2/85 = 2.35

I guess the key word being "draft eligible"...but even then that's JRs & SRs. Say half the roster 2/42 = 4.7 or roughly 5%

***

OK, so NCAA is accounting for ALL professional draft opportunities including leagues like the CFL.

Accounting for Arena League and CFL opportunities, the NCAA to Total Professional figures are estimated as 4.7% for Division I ([247+ 47] / 6,254), 7.9% for FBS ([233 + 34] / 3,398) and 12% for the five autonomous conferences ([183 + 19] / 1,735).

Yeah, I don't think kids are making professional aspirations to go to the CFL and Arena.

Thing is not all power 5 kids are draft eligible as you are implying. People transfer, quit, or never make it into campus. Techs senior class this year only has 11/18 of its original members. 2 of them making it would be over 16% so the math checks out. The number in arena and CFL is also a lot lower than the nfl and made predomniately of FCS teams, as opposed to the P5 domianated NFL. It was 11% for non CFL.
Their definition of draft eligible is players/4.5 for essentially just the senior class. It’s obviously not the best measure, but as I showed even with techs upcoming senior class, attrition happens. If you can’t get drafted freshman year, no point in using it as a statistic. Senior year classes are always smaller than those initial freshman classes. Hell, we over signed this year for that very reason. Stats aren’t contradictory, just need context for explanation.

 

[ncjacket79]

but along with those stats we need to show them that if they do come to Tech we will do everything possible to make them draft ready, which is what Collins is talking about. Teach them the techniques the NFL is looking for and allow them to show their potential. The fall back is a great degree and future outside of football. Marketed correctly that's a combination realatively few other schools can match. Because as others have stated, every 3 star and above kid thinks he has what it takes and can make it in the right situation. and you want them thinking that if you expect them to perform at their peak since so much of athletic performance is based on confidence.