More Bulletin Board Material

daBuzz

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
965
Two words Anthony Boone. ESPN hypes him a good deal and he's one of the only QB's coming back in the Coastal this year. Vegas sees him for what he is, a dude who threw 13 TD's and 13 INT's last year.

No, Vegas sees Duke as a team to whom a lot of people (like many of you obviously) give little respect. And remember their goal isn't to predict the winner, but to get 50% of the people to bet one way and 50% of the people to bet the other so that they have no money at risk.

If you want to know why Duke is ranked above us, they went 10-4 last year. We went 7-7.
Yes, we beat them but they won the division.

We got similar respect from some in 2010 after winning the ACC but there were likewise many who thought we were a flash in the pan and wouldn't win another ACC title.
 

dressedcheeseside

Helluva Engineer
Messages
13,673
Being disrespected is a net positive. How so, you ask?
1. Motivation. Nothing is more motivating than disrespect.
2. No pressure. When there's no expectations, there's no pressure to meet them.
3. Catch teams napping. (only good for the first couple big games then #4 blows that up)
4. Fame and Glory. No story like an underdog story. ESPN is always on the lookout to jump on the latest, greatest unexpected rags to riches story. When you win when you're not supposed to, you're a big story. If you don't, you're not - which is better than being a big story for failing to meet expectations.
 

WreckinGT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,451
No, Vegas sees Duke as a team to whom a lot of people (like many of you obviously) give little respect. And remember their goal isn't to predict the winner, but to get 50% of the people to bet one way and 50% of the people to bet the other so that they have no money at risk.

If you want to know why Duke is ranked above us, they went 10-4 last year. We went 7-7.
Yes, we beat them but they won the division.

We got similar respect from some in 2010 after winning the ACC but there were likewise many who thought we were a flash in the pan and wouldn't win another ACC title.
You are right that Vegas sets a spread based on the opinion of their customers. You have to ask yourself why they have this opinion though. If Duke was clearly a strong candidate to win the coastal once again then you would think betting would be affected. If you think that all of the sports betters out there are way off, and the Duke name is keeping them down, then you are getting great odds for a Duke repeat. Something tells me that you won't take advantage of it. If the odds were the same for every team then I would love to see how many of these media experts would put money on Duke above the others.
 

jeffgt14

We Suck
Messages
5,466
Location
Mt Juliet, TN
Not so fast.... A team's collective psyche before competition factors greatly into their performance. Teams that take other teams lightly under-prepare and lose focus during games. Contrarily, teams with a chip on their proverbial shoulder prepare as they should and stay focused. Motivation is a huge part of sports and the outcomes of contests. Sure, it doesn't best talent, but it plays a huge role in reaching maximum potential.
Thanks Corso! (y)
 

xenoabe

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
394
Location
Atlanta, GA
A fish cannot pick his pond... unless he is a flying fish. Good to be the best fish in the pond you're in. You had better be that, at least, before trying to be the best fish in the ocean.
Oh, I completely agree. I'm just saying you've got to have a realistic picture of the pond you're in before you get a big head and get eaten as soon as you dive into the ocean. This whole speak of finishing where we have in the Coastal is not quite as big of an accomplishment as some would like to believe. It's nice, but it's not a great accomplishment when paired with the overall seasons we've had lately. Now, if we can dominate our division and go on to win another ACCCG or just beat UGA once more in my lifetime then we can probably start puffing our chest a little more.
 

WreckinGT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,451
Oh, I completely agree. I'm just saying you've got to have a realistic picture of the pond you're in before you get a big head and get eaten as soon as you dive into the ocean. This whole speak of finishing where we have in the Coastal is not quite as big of an accomplishment as some would like to believe. It's nice, but it's not a great accomplishment when paired with the overall seasons we've had lately. Now, if we can dominate our division and go on to win another ACCCG or just beat UGA once more in my lifetime then we can probably start puffing our chest a little more.
Six of the seven teams in the Coastal went to bowl games last year. It isn't nearly as bad as you make it out to be. I've never understood why some GT fans think it helps our program to crap all over our conference and division all the time and pretend that 90% of our wins are meaningless.
 

Augusta_Jacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,947
Location
Augusta, Georgia
Six of the seven teams in the Coastal went to bowl games last year. It isn't nearly as bad as you make it out to be. I've never understood why some GT fans think it helps our program to crap all over our conference and division all the time and pretend that 90% of our wins are meaningless.

We were 1-1 vs the two ten win teams we played last year. We were also only one of three teams to shut down dukes offense last year. There are a lot more positives than there are negatives. I'll choose to focus on those.
 

Augusta_Jacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,947
Location
Augusta, Georgia
It wasn't that many years ago that the Coastal always deadlocked because of how many GOOD teams there were competing for the top spot.

This. And Clemson and FSU tried their hardest to play their way out of contention in the Atlantic. Same thing happened in the SEC East/West balance of power. These things are cyclical...
 

Northeast Stinger

Helluva Engineer
Messages
4,406
But the point is, no one else in our division "finished strong" last year, as far as conference standing (and that's what this thread is about) is concerned—except Duke, of all teams. We ended tied in conference record among all the 2nd-place teams. It's also pretty clear that that Duke's unusual success was a combination of good fortune and the outright self-destruction by the other "chosen" teams in the division.

Again I ask, why is our ugly season less deserving of respect than the other teams that were the chosen ones? If anything, they deserve less respect than we do, because they underperformed last season whereas we once again beat expectations. You can't point to how "mediocre" we were last season as a reason for being chosen to be in the bottom of the division, without acknowledging the equal mediocrity of the teams who only backed into their into marginally higher final positions, while not meeting media expectations. (Oooh, look at UNC! Division champions once again!)

WTH do I expect? I expect the media idiots who repeatedly overlook our chances to continually do the same. But I have to scratch my head to figure out why a Tech fan would want to defend their perpetually incorrect assumptions. We may not be a powerhouse in the conference right now, but we are closer to being a conference leader than we are to the bottom-feeders the media always expects us to be.
Yes, oh yes, oh heck yes.
 

GT Man

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
898
You get respect when you earn respect. Would you feel better if they picked us 3rd in the Coastal? We are what we are a mediocre team. This year CPJ has the opportunity to perhaps put a dent in the perception.

I get what you're saying and I agree to an extent. HOWEVER, Tech is always ranked preseason around 4th in the coastal despite a consistent finish that averages at 1.3
Just about every year we've been a contender for the coastal division. These sports writers suffer from inability to learn from the past. Tech is consistently the most underrated team in the conference.
 

xenoabe

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
394
Location
Atlanta, GA
Six of the seven teams in the Coastal went to bowl games last year. It isn't nearly as bad as you make it out to be. I've never understood why some GT fans think it helps our program to crap all over our conference and division all the time and pretend that 90% of our wins are meaningless.
The vast majority of bowls are worthless, not a good measure IMO.

I didn't say our wins are meaningless. I'm just saying our level of success is not near as high as some would like to make it out to be. I love our team and I'm rooting for us every Saturday but we've been very mediocre now for about half a decade. Let's not pretend like we've been good during that time.
 

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
7,548
Location
Poquoson Virginia
Vegas sets the initial line based on where they think the betting will be even on both sides. Then the bets starts flowing in and the line is adjusted to keep the bets about 50%. With the 10% vigorish, there is no better way to do it.

But I don't think they try to "attract" bets by setting lines that they think will be off the 50/50 line. To do so would be a money loser unless they are smarter than the overall bettor pool. It's their business and they could care less whether team A beats team B, only that they maximize the bets that are balanced and they get their 10% on a larger pool.

This site tracks many of the different prediction services and the Vegas line. You have to pay a lot for some of these services. Here in 2013, just the Vegas line itself was fourth best record. http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?year=13 ANd when I looked at previous years, it seems the line or updated line was consistently the best. Sure some years like last year there were three services which were better. But going back, those services weren't as good ...... the Vegas line is the most reliable because they balance the bets and it reflects the latest information including injuries.

I'll be happy with 8-4 and go all the way to frigging ecstatic at 15-0. I know I'm ready for the season to start. (y) And I won't worry about the "quality" of the wins as much as the Power Ranking and national ranking we end up with.
 

cyptomcat

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
866
Vegas spreads rarely end up with 50% of money on both sides. It's not uncommon to have 80% vs. 20% etc. Vegas trusts their lines, and they don't move that much after they are stable. Since there are many games being played, they don't have to keep each game 50-50, but win money from some, lose money from others to end up even with the 10% cut. When they move late in the week, usually it's because someone Vegas trusts (called smart money, bettors with a very good record) took a side.
 

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
7,548
Location
Poquoson Virginia
Vegas spreads rarely end up with 50% of money on both sides. It's not uncommon to have 80% vs. 20% etc. Vegas trusts their lines, and they don't move that much after they are stable. Since there are many games being played, they don't have to keep each game 50-50, but win money from some, lose money from others to end up even with the 10% cut. When they move late in the week, usually it's because someone Vegas trusts (called smart money, bettors with a very good record) took a side.

Thanks. I've "heard" the opposite but don't have a link to support that Vegas usually ends up at 50/50, or tries to. Do you have a link that shows the money on each side of the bets?
 

cyptomcat

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
866
Thanks. I've "heard" the opposite but don't have a link to support that Vegas usually ends up at 50/50, or tries to. Do you have a link that shows the money on each side of the bets?
yeah, here is an example:
http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

It's even true for the biggest event of all: The Superbowl

"Super Bowl Betting: Why Vegas Wants the Patriots Over the Giants"
http://www.ibtimes.com/super-bowl-betting-why-vegas-wants-patriots-over-giants-404644
 
Last edited:
Top