I wrote about it in another thread...what's going to happen is ESPN and FOX are going to start pulling back money from conferences not named B1G and SEC. The collapse of the PAC12 is a very bad sign for the ACC. Don't fool yourself. ESPN and FOX are pulling the strings behind the conference curtains and moving pieces (schools) into conferences to consolidate the regions and schools to optimize their portfolios. Once they've accomplished that, the water spigot to conferences outside the B1G and SEC will start dwindling or get turned off. Those networks won't have to pay multiple conferences or schools that don't add value to their content, they will need to employ less on air talent, less money spent on travel for their game day crews, and so on in regards to eliminating expenses.
If you look at schools that left the PAC 12, all of them ended up making pretty much the same amount or more than they would have if they would have stayed in the PAC12. Funny how the networks were willing to pay other conferences for them to move, but not give the PAC12 that money altogether.
If you look at the recent news that the NFL is purchasing a large share in ESPN, there's not much guessing on what's coming down the pipe. The SEC will, for all intents, be NFL light and SEC will get a LOT of support from ESPN and the NFL. It will be to their benefit to see the SEC thrive...even more than they are now.
It's also why I think GT will eventually end up in the B1G. Atlanta is too valuable a market for FOX/B1G to pass up, and FOX has a large presence in Atlanta. I said it years ago, these mega conferences and the networks are planning something we haven't even thought of yet. Consolidating college brands and big markets is Phase 1. I think Phase 2 is slowly coming out with the NFL and ESPN deal on the horizon.
It is indeed interesting. Agreed with a lot of your points.
I've often said that I think Georgia Tech ends up in the B1G - but lately, I'm less sure.
While the Atlanta market is big (top 7 nationally, I think?), with the decline of cable and the rise of national conferences, it seems a foregone conclusion that carriage fees will be significantly less valuable in the future. When someone subscribes to Youtube TV from Alaska, they get the B1G and SEC and ACC networks. And by extension, they get the streaming version which includes all the conference games that aren't on the main networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, ESPN, FOX, FOX Sports). With more people going to streaming, the importance of media market size is lessening.
Now, there might be some smaller value to RSNs and third tier rights - but it seems like those will also continue to decline, as the national audience has more access to them than ever before.
So I keep coming back to thinking the time for GT to move to the B1G was in 2012 - something that most of us think, sure. But we're moving (or have moved) from the era of the importance of media markets to the importance of brands. Which is why it ticks me off that FSU is pulling their crap now - because they may just get away with it, due to the timing being right.
Previously, we could argue that WE were the gravy train for other ACC programs, because Atlanta generated the most substantial carriage fees revenue for the ACC (hence the reason they begged us to stay in 2012). But now it may be that FSU's self-aggrandizing argument is starting to make sense. 5 years ago it was a lot different, and no conference in their right mind would take them if they got out of their obligations, because none would want to bring them on for the relatively small Tallahassee market; especially when they couldn't trust that FSU would honor any contracts they signed. Now, another conference may go for it, because the markets don't matter as much. Hell, the SEC took Texas after all their shenanigans in the Big 12.
I wonder if, as you say, these mega conferences and networks are planning something we haven't even thought of yet. I hope they are, and that (if the ACC folds) there's a place there for us.
