Long term analytics trends on GT Football

[slugboy]

@Buzzbait, you'd asked about long-term trends on GT football and comparing Gailey with Johnson, etc. Here's the overall SP+, which rates the overall strength of the team (offense, defense, special teams. I marked up coaching eras back through O'Leary. This should give a truer vision compared to wins and losses, since this factors in strength of schedule and margin of victory.

Gailey's teams are really underrated. He came after O'Leary, and didn't elevate from those days, and didn't beat UGA. My frustration with Gailey is that his teams could have been even better and won more, but he never took the next step. By this measure, the average Gailey team would have been stronger than the average Johnson team, and the best Gailey team would have been better than the best Johnson team.

 

[slugboy]

Here are the winning percentages from Sports Reference. Again, Gailey does really well. I'll get some averages in my next post.

			Over	Over	Over	Over	Conf	Conf	Conf	Conf	SRS	SRS	Poll	Poll	Poll
Rk	Year	Conf	W	L	T	Pct	W	L	T	Pct	SRS	SOS	AP Pre	AP High	AP Post	Coach(es)	Bowl
1	2021	ACC	3	9		.250	2	6	0	.250	-1.98	3.61				Geoff Collins (3-9)
2	2020	ACC	3	7	0	.300	3	6	0	.333	-7.85	0.05				Geoff Collins (3-7)
3	2019	ACC	3	9	0	.250	2	6	0	.250	-8.49	2.42				Geoff Collins (3-9)
4	2018	ACC	7	6	0	.538	5	3	0	.625	2.76	1.76				Paul Johnson (7-6)	Quick Lane Bowl-L
5	2017	ACC	5	6	0	.455	4	4	0	.500	6.38	5.93				Paul Johnson (5-6)
6	2016	ACC	9	4	0	.692	4	4	0	.500	7.13	2.90				Paul Johnson (9-4)	TaxSlayer Bowl-W
7	2015	ACC	3	9	0	.250	1	7	0	.125	1.43	4.60	16	14		Paul Johnson (3-9)
8	2014	ACC	11	3	0	.786	6	2	0	.750	15.92	4.78		8	8	Paul Johnson (11-3)	Orange Bowl-W
9	2013	ACC	7	6	0	.538	5	3	0	.625	7.21	3.67				Paul Johnson (7-6)	Music City Bowl-L
10	2012	ACC	7	7	0	.500	5	3	0	.625	5.18	2.89				Paul Johnson (7-7)	Sun Bowl-W
11	2011	ACC	8	5	0	.615	5	3	0	.625	3.40	-1.29		12		Paul Johnson (8-5)	Sun Bowl-L
12	2010	ACC	6	7	0	.462	4	4	0	.500	0.80	0.80	16	15		Paul Johnson (6-7)	Independence Bowl-L
13	2009	ACC	11	3	0	.786	7	1	0	.875	13.54	4.83	15	7	13	Paul Johnson (11-3)	Orange Bowl-L
14	2008	ACC	9	4	0	.692	5	3	0	.625	6.78	1.70		14	22	Paul Johnson (9-4)	Chick-fil-A Bowl-L
15	2007	ACC	7	6	0	.538	4	4	0	.500	3.94	1.24		15		Chan Gailey (7-5) Jon Tenuta (0-1)	Humanitarian Bowl-L
16	2006	ACC	9	5	0	.643	7	1	0	.875	6.50	1.64		13		Chan Gailey (9-5)	Gator Bowl-L
17	2005	ACC	7	5	0	.583	5	3	0	.625	7.31	6.48		15		Chan Gailey (7-5)	Emerald Bowl-L
18	2004	ACC	7	5	0	.583	4	4	0	.500	6.41	4.25				Chan Gailey (7-5)	Champs Sports Bowl-W
19	2003	ACC	7	6	0	.538	4	4	0	.500	5.60	5.68				Chan Gailey (7-6)	Humanitarian Bowl-W
20	2002	ACC	7	6	0	.538	4	4	0	.500	4.56	3.86				Chan Gailey (7-6)	Silicon Valley Bowl-L
21	2001	ACC	8	5	0	.615	4	4	0	.500	7.10	1.95	10	9	24	George OLeary (7-5) Mac McWhorter (1-0)	Seattle Bowl-W
22	2000	ACC	9	3	0	.750	6	2	0	.750	11.30	1.21		15	17	George OLeary (9-3)	Peach Bowl-L
23	1999	ACC	8	4	0	.667	5	3	0	.625	10.30	3.47	11	7	20	George OLeary (8-4)	Gator Bowl-L
24	1998	ACC	10	2	0	.833	7	1	0	.875	12.37	1.70		9	9	George OLeary (10-2)	Gator Bowl-W
25	1997	ACC	7	5	0	.583	5	3	0	.625	8.07	5.65		21	25	George OLeary (7-5)	Carquest Bowl-W
26	1996	ACC	5	6	0	.455	4	4	0	.500	1.78	2.06		22		George OLeary (5-6)
27	1995	ACC	6	5	0	.545	5	3	0	.625	-0.16	-0.43				George OLeary (6-5)
28	1994	ACC	1	10	0	.091	0	8	0	.000	-7.41	3.05				Bill Lewis (1-7) George OLeary (0-3)

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 12/31/2021.

 

[slugboy]

Here is each Coach's winning percentage. Gailey's record includes Tenuta's loss coaching the bowl game, which lowers his win percentage. I did not include O'Leary's first 0-3 in his numbers.

Gailey and Johnson are nearly identical. That includes the lower low of Johnson's 3 win season.

Coach	Wins	Losses	Winning %
Geoff Collins	9​	25​	26.47%​
Paul Johnson	83​	60​	58.04%​
Chan Gailey	44​	33​	57.14%​
George O'Leary	53​	30​	63.86%​

 

[Eli]

Here is each Coach's winning percentage. Gailey's record includes Tenuta's loss coaching the bowl game, which lowers his win percentage. I did not include O'Leary's first 0-3 in his numbers.

Gailey and Johnson are nearly identical. That includes the lower low of Johnson's 3 win season.

Coach	Wins	Losses	Winning %
Geoff Collins	9​	25​	26.47%​
Paul Johnson	83​	60​	58.04%​
Chan Gailey	44​	33​	57.14%​
George O'Leary	53​	30​	63.86%​

Gailey was the best at evaluating talent. It was actually incredible the development of players under him.

 

[slugboy]

And overall wins by coach, graphically:

 

[stech81]

So in more year 12 CGC should pass Gailey in wins. But the good side is he can catch him in loses next year.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Here is each Coach's winning percentage. Gailey's record includes Tenuta's loss coaching the bowl game, which lowers his win percentage. I did not include O'Leary's first 0-3 in his numbers.

Gailey and Johnson are nearly identical. That includes the lower low of Johnson's 3 win season.

Coach	Wins	Losses	Winning %
Geoff Collins	9​	25​	26.47%​
Paul Johnson	83​	60​	58.04%​
Chan Gailey	44​	33​	57.14%​
George O'Leary	53​	30​	63.86%​

You should include Curry and Ross in these numbers. If I remember correctly, Ross won 2, 3, then 7 in his first 3 seasons. Then he caught lightning in a bottle when Shawn was a Junior QB and had a strong senior-laden team his 4th year in.

 

[slugboy]

You should include Curry and Ross in these numbers. If I remember correctly, Ross won 2, 3, then 7 in his first 3 seasons. Then he caught lightning in a bottle when Shawn was a Junior QB and had a strong senior-laden team his 4th year in.

You can see them on the SP+ graph, even though they aren’t marked.

Lewis: 1992-1994. Graph is a nose dive.
Ross: 1987-1991. Graph is straight up from one of our lowest points to our highest, then back off in 1991. If he’d have stayed and we remained at the 1991 level, we’d have been a year over year powerhouse. 1991 was a “disappointing” 8-5 year.
Curry: 1980-1986. He had some rough early years, but he had brought the team up to a good level and figured out how to coach. He also had an experienced team with good players in 1985.
Pepper Rodgers: 1974-1979. Started out at a 10, then trended down. Did not have good W-L results.
Fulcher: 72-73. Yeeesh that’s a drop off.
Carson: Up to 71. Not a great W-L, but strong teams.

 

[Gtswifty81]

@Buzzbait, you'd asked about long-term trends on GT football and comparing Gailey with Johnson, etc. Here's the overall SP+, which rates the overall strength of the team (offense, defense, special teams. I marked up coaching eras back through O'Leary. This should give a truer vision compared to wins and losses, since this factors in strength of schedule and margin of victory.

View attachment 11903

Gailey's teams are really underrated. He came after O'Leary, and didn't elevate from those days, and didn't beat UGA. My frustration with Gailey is that his teams could have been even better and won more, but he never took the next step. By this measure, the average Gailey team would have been stronger than the average Johnson team, and the best Gailey team would have been better than the best Johnson team.

This doesn’t surprise me. O’Leary took over at the bottom and had nationally recognized teams. Gailey had good teams but couldn’t get over the hump and get that signature win or season (mainly cause he was unable to develop stellar QB play) so he has a perception of under performing. Johnson had a couple highs during his tenure, had a couple UGA wins, but most other seasons were average and is seen as over achieving with his teams. Collins unfortunately hasn’t been good.

 

[WreckinGT]

So according to these stats the 2013 team was better than the 2014 team? Vad Lee vindicated.

 

[JacketFan137]

So according to these stats the 2013 team was better than the 2014 team? Vad Lee vindicated.

i feel like the o line took such a big step in 2014. we looked awful with vad cause he never had time