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<blockquote data-quote="lv20gt" data-source="post: 617333" data-attributes="member: 2299"><p>Against bama sure. We aren't close to Bama though. The point of those scores wasn't that they'd be favored against Bama by 4 TDs. It's to point out that Clemson was very capable of beating absolutely great teams by 4 TDs which makes the 5TD line against us more reasonable. </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>I agree playing experience is important. But in the matchup of our OL vs their DL, our OL also has no game experience playing in this system. On the otherside, we probably have even a bigger concern on the DL than clemson does and they have a great OL returning. IMO the first game unpredictability favors the team returning a great OL and Heisman favorite QB vs the team with a new system and a QB who has yet to throw a college pass (assuming LJ is the starter). I'd argue the first game unpredictability pushes the line further in Clemson's favor. I think playing later in the year would favor us as I expect us to improve more as the season goes on than most teams. It's why I like playing Clemson first because we probably lose this game whenever we play, so having the first game against them gives us another week of practice for the more winnable games. </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>I agree they will ease off and play backups. I'm not sure that means the gap will shrink when it happens though. In terms of QBs what support is there that we have 3 QBs capable of playing (well) to the final whistle? Our likely starter is in year 4 and has a career production of 1 rush for 1 yard with no pass attempts. Sure our coach who is in full hype the program mode has hyped up our QBs, but if this were any other team in the same situation we'd all view the QB spot as a huge liability. There is a decent chance that none of the 3 QBs ATL are the answer for us at QB. There is a very good chance that even if one is the answer for us at QB that it will take time for them to get into the system. People talk about how well we adjusted in Johnson's first year, but the offense took many games to actually start clicking. Against BC in 2008 we had 235 total yards and 3 turnovers and scored just 19 points. The next week we scored just 17 against VT and had 3 TOs. That 2008 team had a great QB for the system and true studs at BB and WR, and the offense still struggled to adjust early. And that is something we need to keep in mind after the fact, that even if Johnson, Graham, or Oliver struggle early, it doesn't mean they aren't the guy long term. There is also a decent chance that one might be the answer, but isn't the one that starts game one. </p><p></p><p></p><p>A 35 point spread isn't a prediction for a 35 point game. A line of that means they expect there to be a decent chance we cover it. It also means they think there is a decent chance that Clemson covers it. </p><p></p><p>Last year Clemson beat 3 ACC teams by more than 40 and two more by more than 30. That means last year they were more likely to win by 30+ against ACC teams than not. Since 2012 Clemson has beaten 13 ACC teams by 35 or more points. Just in general, there is a decent chance they beat 2 ACC teams this year by 35+ and we're the ones playing on the road, in a new system, with a ton of ?s. So yeah, I think there is a very real chance we lose by 35 plus.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="lv20gt, post: 617333, member: 2299"] Against bama sure. We aren't close to Bama though. The point of those scores wasn't that they'd be favored against Bama by 4 TDs. It's to point out that Clemson was very capable of beating absolutely great teams by 4 TDs which makes the 5TD line against us more reasonable. I agree playing experience is important. But in the matchup of our OL vs their DL, our OL also has no game experience playing in this system. On the otherside, we probably have even a bigger concern on the DL than clemson does and they have a great OL returning. IMO the first game unpredictability favors the team returning a great OL and Heisman favorite QB vs the team with a new system and a QB who has yet to throw a college pass (assuming LJ is the starter). I'd argue the first game unpredictability pushes the line further in Clemson's favor. I think playing later in the year would favor us as I expect us to improve more as the season goes on than most teams. It's why I like playing Clemson first because we probably lose this game whenever we play, so having the first game against them gives us another week of practice for the more winnable games. I agree they will ease off and play backups. I'm not sure that means the gap will shrink when it happens though. In terms of QBs what support is there that we have 3 QBs capable of playing (well) to the final whistle? Our likely starter is in year 4 and has a career production of 1 rush for 1 yard with no pass attempts. Sure our coach who is in full hype the program mode has hyped up our QBs, but if this were any other team in the same situation we'd all view the QB spot as a huge liability. There is a decent chance that none of the 3 QBs ATL are the answer for us at QB. There is a very good chance that even if one is the answer for us at QB that it will take time for them to get into the system. People talk about how well we adjusted in Johnson's first year, but the offense took many games to actually start clicking. Against BC in 2008 we had 235 total yards and 3 turnovers and scored just 19 points. The next week we scored just 17 against VT and had 3 TOs. That 2008 team had a great QB for the system and true studs at BB and WR, and the offense still struggled to adjust early. And that is something we need to keep in mind after the fact, that even if Johnson, Graham, or Oliver struggle early, it doesn't mean they aren't the guy long term. There is also a decent chance that one might be the answer, but isn't the one that starts game one. A 35 point spread isn't a prediction for a 35 point game. A line of that means they expect there to be a decent chance we cover it. It also means they think there is a decent chance that Clemson covers it. Last year Clemson beat 3 ACC teams by more than 40 and two more by more than 30. That means last year they were more likely to win by 30+ against ACC teams than not. Since 2012 Clemson has beaten 13 ACC teams by 35 or more points. Just in general, there is a decent chance they beat 2 ACC teams this year by 35+ and we're the ones playing on the road, in a new system, with a ton of ?s. So yeah, I think there is a very real chance we lose by 35 plus. [/QUOTE]
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