Josh Okogie to hire agent and stay in NBA Draft

[orientalnc]

I am not making a draft prediction for JO, but I think the mock drafts we are seeing have a meme bias that reflects what the teams want others to believe. The Hawks are being publicly very coy about what they will do with their picks, but behind the scenes someone is feeding the ESPN, SI, etc guys info about the team's intentions that have a strategic motive. They are trying to influence other teams to make choices that benefit the Hawks' draft positions.

For one, I cannot believe the Hawks will pass on Bagley if he is still around at #3. They have been very silent about JO, but I think they were very impressed. If they get Bagley or Jackson at #2, they need a guard in the first round. I may be wrong, but I think Josh is the best guard likely to be around at #19.

 

[kg01]

I am not making a draft prediction for JO, but I think the mock drafts we are seeing have a meme bias that reflects what the teams want others to believe. The Hawks are being publicly very coy about what they will do with their picks, but behind the scenes someone is feeding the ESPN, SI, etc guys info about the team's intentions that have a strategic motive. They are trying to influence other teams to make choices that benefit the Hawks' draft positions.

For one, I cannot believe the Hawks will pass on Bagley if he is still around at #3. They have been very silent about JO, but I think they were very impressed. If they get Bagley or Jackson at #2, they need a guard in the first round. I may be wrong, but I think Josh is the best guard likely to be around at #19.

Seems the Hawks are one of few teams that aren't leaking anything. All the Hawk-related rumors are based on stuff leaked from other teams. Folks read tea leaves from those leaks and extrapolate what they expect the Hawks to do in response. That's why the Doncic-to-Atlanta stuff comes from (in addition to some stuff I gleaned from one other guy I semi-trust on the Hawks board). Ayton is going 1 and SAC leaks are suggesting Bagley's going there. It's doubtful Doncic passes 3, in that case.

On Okogie, he's set so go so far down in the 1st that mocks have no idea where to put him. I think BC's guy may be higher on the Hawks' radar at 19, but that Okogie is on the radars of SAS, BOS and GS which is good for him.

 

[Techster]

Five thirty eight's most promising players in the NBA draft. This is pretty cool if you're into deep dive statistical comparisons. Although they don't show the "work" for each draft prospect, they do link to the methodology.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...rs-in-the-nba-draft-according-to-my-computer/

Using the CARMELO metric, JO comes in at #17 (they did not rank Euro prospects) with comparisons to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gary Harris, Jordan Adams.

Using a "pure stats" comparison, JO comes in at #13 with comparisons to KCP, Adams, and Marcus Smart this time.

Just an FYI...I couldn't get the table to scroll for me using Chrome or explorer on my laptop, but was able to get it on my adroid chrome browser.

 

[Techster]

Good write up from AJC's Ken S on how Okogie developed into a more than likely first rounder:

https://www.ajc.com/sports/college/...date-first-round-pick/LAs6edBx8VzLTjsv4qhk7J/

 

[tech_wreck47]

I would love Okogie to the hawks at 19, if we wait till 30 he may not be there. I wouldn’t mind the hawks actually trading back to around 7 or so. They could then go after Carter Jr at 7.

 

[awbuzz]

Good write up from AJC's Ken S on how Okogie developed into a more than likely first rounder:

https://www.ajc.com/sports/college/...date-first-round-pick/LAs6edBx8VzLTjsv4qhk7J/

"The critical juncture was his participation at the NBA draft combine in Chicago on May 16-20. After receiving his invitation, Okogie wowed with superior measurables. His 7-foot wingspan was the fourth longest of any guard. He tied for the highest max vertical leap (vertical with a running start) at 42 inches. He had the fastest three-quarter-court sprint at 3.04 seconds."

“I think people had him on their radar, but, scrimmaging at the combine, it just looked like he belonged,” said the scout, speaking on condition of anonymity. “You watch him, you see how hard he plays, how competitive he is. You see athleticism. I think people realized, ‘Wow, this guy’s got a chance.’ He can get out there, and I don’t want to say overwhelm people, but his athleticism’s a factor in his success, and, again, how hard he plays."

 

[BigDaddyBuzz]

If Okogie goes in 1st Round, which it sure seems like he will, we will immediately jump up in recruits eyes. Guys like Watson and Sturdivant will surely take notice and you better believe Pastner and Staff will sell the hell out of this development.

 

[YlJacket]

Well every mock draft I have looked at today says he made the right bet and is a first round guy. Congrats to him and I am wishing him nothing but luck for the draft and beyond.

 

[GT_EE78]

JO had an impressive run up to the draft, i sure hope he gets his NBA contract. Still its a major setback to the program.hard to see the team improving this year despite young talent. I hope the Hawks will take a pass on Doncic (assuming Bagley is gone ) and go for another big like Bamba,Carter or Jackson instead.

 

[YlJacket]

Not sure that is the way the NBA game is going. I haven't seen him but read some concerns about Doncic's athleticism - but conceptually he is the way the game is going. With Collins already not sure I would double down on another big.

 

[ChasonBaller]

My final guess on the Okogie landing spot is #23 to the Pacers. He would get to learn behind an athletic guard(coming off a career year) who is also considered small for his position in Victor Oladipo.

Also he *might* play with Thaddeus if he returns to Indiana. It would make it an awesome game when they come down to face the Hawks.

 

[MWBATL]

Just out of curiosity....does anyone think that Josh might have improved his drafts standing if he had come back to school for one more year?

I know the folks on this board ar emir knowledgeable and thoughtful about basketball issues than I, so am curious if anyone thinks it is even a close decision between being drafted in the mid 20's versus coming back with the risk of injury etc but the possibility of increasing your position...

 

[LargeFO]

^ I would think pretty minimally with where he's moved to the last few weeks.

 

[YlJacket]

Not sure if I qualify as knowledgeable and for sure not the thoughtful part but here is some background that is useful to think about

3 year total salary by pick (approximate) - and excluding 4th and 5th year options.

25th $5M
15th $7M
10th $9M
5th $14M

So while I would hope he would improve his draft status the question would be how much and is it worth the risks involved if you think you are a first round pick this year. Let's use 25th pick this year as an anchor and say his upside is 15th - maybe 10th next year. He has a "guaranteed" $5M this year versus a risk of another $2M or $4M if he stays and improves. Recognize the downside that he gets hurt or something happens to remove the sizzle from how he is perceived by the NBA. It doesn't take much of a risk of $0 to make the expected value of staying in school less than going - if you really have a first round slot.

The other dynamic is these guys are playing to get out of the rookie scale and into free agency as fast as possible. A year earlier to free agent money/extra year on their career is huge as far as total value for their career. That is a big driver for someone who expects a 5-10 year career.

As long as you "know" you are a first round pick it is considered a no brainer to go ahead and go.

 

[kg01]

Just out of curiosity....does anyone think that Josh might have improved his drafts standing if he had come back to school for one more year?

I know the folks on this board ar emir knowledgeable and thoughtful about basketball issues than I, so am curious if anyone thinks it is even a close decision between being drafted in the mid 20's versus coming back with the risk of injury etc but the possibility of increasing your position...

Nope. IIUC a big part of the whole 'analytics' infiltration into the NBA game is that they follow closely a formula that allegedly measures a guy's productivity in conjunction with age. (I say 'allegedly' because I don't necessarily like "analytics" being used in this manner.)

It essentially grades down guys as they age so it's doubtful Okogie would have an increase in production such that it would offset how much he'd be knocked for being a year older. STTE

ETA: It's a major part of why the JJJ guy from MichSt is though of so highly. He's very young, relatively.

It's basically a quantitative way of saying, if a guy stays in school, "Uh, somethin mus be wrong wit 'im".

 

[lv20gt]

Just out of curiosity....does anyone think that Josh might have improved his drafts standing if he had come back to school for one more year?

I know the folks on this board ar emir knowledgeable and thoughtful about basketball issues than I, so am curious if anyone thinks it is even a close decision between being drafted in the mid 20's versus coming back with the risk of injury etc but the possibility of increasing your position...

Some, but probably not enough to warrant it if he goes in the first round this year. Right now he's a guard who is big on needing the ball in his hands but hasn't shown enough as a creator to really warrant that type of usage at the next level. IMO he'd have to show something to warrant heavy use with the ball in his hand at the next level to really make a jump. So either he really ramps up the assists next year or he really improves his finishing, both at the rim, and in quick 3 point shots. Ideally he could do both, but having already had two years of heavy exposure I doubt he would.

 

[orientalnc]

Just out of curiosity....does anyone think that Josh might have improved his drafts standing if he had come back to school for one more year?

I know the folks on this board ar emir knowledgeable and thoughtful about basketball issues than I, so am curious if anyone thinks it is even a close decision between being drafted in the mid 20's versus coming back with the risk of injury etc but the possibility of increasing your position...

He made the smart move for himself. The short term impact on us is negative, but, as others have said, the mid-term impact could be very positive. I will be watching tonight hoping to hear his name at #19. When you look at our overall lack of success over the past 25 years or so, we have a lot more NBA representation than you would expect.

 

[brandon_cox]

Josh Okogie
Marcus Georges-Hunt
Thad Young
Jarrett Jack (maybe)
Iman Shumpert
Derrick Favors

Should still be there: Chris Bosh and Critty

Am I missing anybody?

 

[ChasonBaller]

Josh Okogie
Marcus Georges-Hunt
Thad Young
Jarrett Jack (maybe)
Iman Shumpert
Derrick Favors

Should still be there: Chris Bosh and Critty

Am I missing anybody?

I think Morrow is still listed as a Free Agent but seems like he is headed towards retirement (even though the Cavs could have used him )

 

[brandon_cox]

I knew I was missing someone. Morrow carved out a 9-10 year career as an UDFA. Very impressive.