January 1, 2024 Mid-Season Evaluation

[slugboy]

The capability is there, but inconsistency is the bugaboo right now. 19 points in 1st half in Tallahassee was awful. Then we scored 52 in the 2nd half.

I kinda feel like this is where Kobe on the Lakers or Steph Curry rattles some cages and gets everyone playing together. Maybe Jose did some of that here. Maybe Nait is that guy next year.

 

[spdrama]

Ups and downs, just like we all expected. Defeating two teams that were ranked when we played them but lose to a UMass-Lowell. While that is just continuation of what we saw in the past two regimes you have to like the fact that Ndongo and George are gems and the second class looks super talented while CDS establishes deep in-roads with OTE (Go figure, more hard truths proven correct). Sacko is raw but his measurables and effort are undeniable.

Moving forward I see eight more wins on the schedule with BC, ND x 2, FSU (H), VPI (A), Pitt (H), Syracuse (H) and Ill take a split with Wake, whose Kenpom number (43) and record quality (53) is somehow inflated despite their SOS of 154.

Of course, if Miles figures it out and plays at a level that we all know he is capable of, then we can possibly add a road victory against Syracuse and a split with Virginia which I think is more likely at this point than a victory in Corral Gables.

The one thing Id like to see in the second half is just some semblance of consistency over the course of the game. Yes we all expected bumps in the road as far as the team gelling and adapting but hey, Texas Tech has a new coach and a new roster, they're 11-2. Ole Miss, 13-0, new coach, new roster. At some point it has to come together. Now, this could be a situation perpetuated by the fact that a player figured to be relied upon heavily cant seem to find his way on to the court. Who knows? I don't.

If i had to pick something else i would LOVE LOVE LOVE TO SEE it has to be road performance. Good god folks, over the last decade this program is 36-85 in true road games, good for 29.8%. Fourth worst in the ACC. We are a far better team than Georgia IMHO. Granted, home court matters more than almost anything in college basketball but that showing was just brutal.

Regardless of how the rest of this season shapes up, if Miles, Reeves, Baye, George, Deebo and Gapare all remain with the program along with our talented incoming class then we are really cooking with oil. Expectations should be high IMHO, that is a tournament team. Hell, this team has the talent of a tournament team but for some reason it just hasn't come together yet.

I very much agree with the sentiment here. But there were 61 NCAA Basketball head coaching changes for 2023-24 and I have no intention of going through each team to check for their records or which have had major roster changes, but GT’s success or approval being measured by how other teams with new head coaches do seems a bit unfair. We need to work to be the best we can, stand or fall on our own merit, and not set goals on what other programs accomplish.

This team on any given day, with its A game can beat any other team, albeit some that would have to show up with significantly less than their A game. And without it’s A game, GT with a very young, inexperienced group in its infancy of learning to play together and for a new HC, can easily lose to any other team. No surprise there. Upsets have been a normal side effect of college basketball since …. well … forever.

Irrespective of this team’s final record in 2023-24, I sense a renewed interest by new & old Alumni & fans in what we all hope is the foundation year in a longer term vision that makes GT basketball more like the Cremins/Hewitt eras & less like the Gregory/Pastner eras. We can defer credit for this for awhile to make certain our hopes are realized & not dashed. But I expect the candidates for such credit to be the Institution’s President, AD, HC & coaching staff, individually or collectively.

As for 2023-24, the potential core of this team is Kelly, Terry, Coleman, Ndongo, Reeves, George, Mustafa, Sutton & Kirouac. That’s a nice looking 9. And recruiting for next year might not be over yet so the 9 might become 10. But with only 200 minutes of playing time per game to distribute, I expect a lot of portal exits. Gapare & Sacko, both of whom show lots of promise, remain projects and may not survive if GT continues its rise in the college basketball ranks like it has so far in the recruiting ranks. After all, if you recruit in the top 20, and continue that kind of recruiting in followup years this team might soon deliver on the dreams of its alums & fans.

I’m ok with whatever the rest of this season brings in wins/losses, who we beat, who we lose to or where we end up in rankings and the conference as this team is fun and exciting to watch, no matter results. No whining or complaining from me. Next year will hopefully be that big improvement season. And the year after that, maybe no ceiling at all, or let the whining & complaining begin.

 

[Peacone36]

I very much agree with the sentiment here. But there were 61 NCAA Basketball head coaching changes for 2023-24 and I have no intention of going through each team to check for their records or which have had major roster changes, but GT’s success or approval being measured by how other teams with new head coaches do seems a bit unfair. We need to work to be the best we can, stand or fall on our own merit, and not set goals on what other programs accomplish.

This team on any given day, with its A game can beat any other team, albeit some that would have to show up with significantly less than their A game. And without it’s A game, GT with a very young, inexperienced group in its infancy of learning to play together and for a new HC, can easily lose to any other team. No surprise there. Upsets have been a normal side effect of college basketball since …. well … forever.

Irrespective of this teams final record in 2023-24, I sense a renewed interest by new & old Alumni & fans in what we all hope is the foundation year in a longer term vision that makes GT basketball more like the Cremins/Hewitt eras & less like the Gregory/Pastner eras. We can defer credit for this for awhile to make certain our hopes are realized & not dashed. But I expect the candidates for such credit to be the Institution’s President, AD, HC & coaching staff, individually or collectively.

As for 2023-24, the potential core of this team is Kelly, Terry, Coleman, Ndongo, Reeves, George, Mustafa, Sutton & Kirouac. That’s a nice looking 9. And recruiting for next year might not be over yet so the 9 might become 10. But with only 200 minutes of playing time per game to distribute, I expect a lot of portal exits. Gapare & Sacko, both of whom show lots of promise, remain projects and may not survive if GT continues its rise in the college basketball ranks like it has so far in the recruiting ranks. After all, if you recruit in the top 20, and continue that kind of recruiting in followup years this team might soon deliver on the dreams of its alums & fans.

I’m ok with whatever the rest of this season brings in wins/losses, who we beat, who we lose to or where we end up in rankings and the conference as this team is fun and exciting to watch, no matter results. No whining or complaining from me. Next year will hopefully be that big improvement season. And the year after that, maybe no ceiling at all, or let the whining & complaining begin.

The inclusion of those two programs was included just to say that just because you have a bunch of new guys doesnt mean you need an entire season to get to where you need to be. I am a huge believer in roster/program continuity and the continued erosion of that is why my interest in college basketball is steadily declining.

Sacko remains an unknown for me but you can see the upside in Gapare, his help-side defense alone is something I would be ecstatic to keep around.

 

[spdrama]

The inclusion of those two programs was included just to say that just because you have a bunch of new guys doesnt mean you need an entire season to get to where you need to be. I am a huge believer in roster/program continuity and the continued erosion of that is why my interest in college basketball is steadily declining.

Sacko remains an unknown for me but you can see the upside in Gapare, his help-side defense alone is something I would be ecstatic to keep around.

Agree again, but continuing with the same roster & program after multiple losing seasons and with all new coaching makes it difficult to get on a winning path forward.

I watched Gapare, in person, at MSG score his 20 and help lead GT to its win over Penn State. His play was outstanding everywhere on the court. A real eye opener. And CSD obviously likes him or he would not have been in the starting lineup game 1. He has also started other games and gets significant minutes. Don’t think anyone wants him gone, but he might see a brighter future elsewhere, with the competition for minutes he will face next year.

 

[lv20gt]

Very mixed bag overall.

Team wide, rebounding has been real good, and defense has been improved and would be better if we likely didn't have to compromise it at times to try and generate offense. Long term, we can hope that either Gapare or Sacko can develop offensively, or guys like Sutton and Kirouac can give us both inside to help compliment Ndongo.

Offense has largely been just bad by most metrics. Shooting%, Off efficiency, ATR. We are generating more FTAs which is good, although still not at a particularly high rate, but our FT% has been as bad as the rest.

Individually, you have to love how Ndongo has come in and been incorporated both in the specific action to try and get him the ball, predominantly on the PnR, as well as his ability to find ways to be useful outside of that, like on the Orebs and defensively. 3 time ACC FotW. Likewise I think you have to like how George has played. Still a freshman and has had his own issues (low Fg% and hit a rut in terms of his assists the past couple games) but overall has shown a lot to like from a freshman PG. Also have to like how Reeves has come in and played. He has more or less fixed his biggest issue from his time at UF which was his high volume but low %s.

Some guys like Sacko and Gapare are works in progress and basically show that. Claude has been disappointing but it was always a possibility that he was just going to be playing at a too high level for what he was. Worth the risk, but didn't, or hasn't yet, payed off. Dowuona is basically what he was at NCSU. To me this was a pretty big question mark about why we would take him, but can't really say that how he has played is anything other than what should have been expected. Sturdivant has more or less been what he has been. IMO we'd have been better off going with him primarily running the team while Abram/George was brought on slower, but going all in on George early will probably pay off down the line.

On the bad side, Abram is obviously the biggest disappointment. Kelly has also obviously regressed in his effectiveness on offense, even as volume has gone up. He has been better about getting to the FT line though and his efforts rebounding have been a positive. . Personally, I was hoping Coleman would thrive being able to play his more natural spot, but we've seemed to not make it a priority to try and get him looks especially with how we've struggled so much from 3.

Outside of the play on the court, the recruiting has been good. Ndongo was a great pull late, and George looks to be a great find as well as long as he continues to develop. Too early to really comment on the rest of the freshmen from last class. For the upcoming class Sutton and Mustaff look like pieces that could help right way while Kirouac is a very intriguing add who I think could be really good after a year in a college weight room and diet. Also been linked to some intriguing PG options, which is good to see given the situation with Abram.

The gets from the portal have also been a mixed bag with Reeves being great, Abram being terrible, and the rest kind of just being at this point. Obviously we haven't had this years portal cycle so it will be interesting to see how that plays out with a staff in place for the entire thing.

 

[orientalnc]

Kelly has also obviously regressed in his effectiveness on offense, even as volume has gone up. He has been better about getting to the FT line though and his efforts rebounding have been a positive.

Kelly's point production is actually up this year over last, but his shooting percentages are down. His FT shooting is actually a problem. This time last year he was hitting 85% at the line. I don't argue with your overall point that Kelly has not be as effective as we need. He is missing shots that he made in the past and in larger quantities. All that said, he and Reeves are our best players and it shows on the court.

 

[lv20gt]

Kelly's point production is actually up this year over last, but his shooting percentages are down. His FT shooting is actually a problem. This time last year he was hitting 85% at the line. I don't argue with your overall point that Kelly has not be as effective as we need. He is missing shots that he made in the past and in larger quantities. All that said, he and Reeves are our best players and it shows on the court.

Kelly is shooting three times the freethrows as last year and so despite hitting just 70% he is getting about 2.2 more points from the FT line per game than last year. Generating FTs has been one area he has really improved (my guess is this was part of the feedback he got from the NBA waters test) along with rebounds.

However, outside of FTs here are the numbers. Last year he averaged 12.8 points off FGs while this year he is averaging 11.4 points despite number of attempts going from 12.3 to 14.5, So he is taking 2.2 more shots per game, but actually getting 1.4 less points off those shots. Should be noted that shots leading to FTs aren't counted as FGAs. So overall he's averaging about .8 more points per game but on about 4 shots worth of opportunities.

Overall TS% is a good stat to factor in everything (although it has it's own issues). Last year he was our best offensive player with a TS% of .547 (Franklin had a higher TS% but it's not really comparable due to inside player vs out). However this year his TS% is at .443 which is only ahead of Gapare and Abram. To compare Reeves is at .568, Coleman is at .550, and Kyle is at .530. .443 puts him in Devion Smith territory from last year.

Kelly may be our best player on the court. But right now his shooting% don't come close to justifying the volume that he is shooting. The two million dollar questions are why is his % so low, and why is the guy shooting such a low % the one who has such a high volume of shots. And likely you're answer to these questions will likely greatly affect how you view the overall current situation.

 

[Root4GT]

Kelly is shooting three times the freethrows as last year and so despite hitting just 70% he is getting about 2.2 more points from the FT line per game than last year. Generating FTs has been one area he has really improved (my guess is this was part of the feedback he got from the NBA waters test) along with rebounds.

However, outside of FTs here are the numbers. Last year he averaged 12.8 points off FGs while this year he is averaging 11.4 points despite number of attempts going from 12.3 to 14.5, So he is taking 2.2 more shots per game, but actually getting 1.4 less points off those shots. Should be noted that shots leading to FTs aren't counted as FGAs. So overall he's averaging about .8 more points per game but on about 4 shots worth of opportunities.

Overall TS% is a good stat to factor in everything (although it has it's own issues). Last year he was our best offensive player with a TS% of .547 (Franklin had a higher TS% but it's not really comparable due to inside player vs out). However this year his TS% is at .443 which is only ahead of Gapare and Abram. To compare Reeves is at .568, Coleman is at .550, and Kyle is at .530. .443 puts him in Devion Smith territory from last year.

Kelly may be our best player on the court. But right now his shooting% don't come close to justifying the volume that he is shooting. The two million dollar questions are why is his % so low, and why is the guy shooting such a low % the one who has such a high volume of shots. And likely you're answer to these questions will likely greatly affect how you view the overall current situation.

He takes the shots because they are generally shots he has made his whole career. Shooters generally shoot themselves out of their slumps. Of course some are rushed late shot clock shots but most are solid based on his career prior to this year.

His drives to the basket this year are both more frequent and much stronger. That's where he gets fouled most of the time. There is a secondary benefit when he is fouled. The opposing team's foul totals mount getting us to the bonus (+) more quickly. Reeves is the only other guy who goes strong to the basket on drives. That is one of our weaknesses as a team. Kelly is value added there.

Why is he missing open 3s and FTs, I have no idea. If he or the coaches could isolate the reason they would have already.

 

[rush3225]

I am optimistic about GT basketball because of Coach Stoudamire. He has the bonafides as both a player and coach in both college and the NBA to recruit and coach at a high level.

That said, I see Tech finishing below .500 again this year and failing to make the NCAA tournament. This year’s team has the same weakness that Tech basketball teams always seem to have: lousy 3-pt shooting.

This is not new. In fact, it’s become a hallmark of Tech basketball for at least the last 15 years, and maybe even going back as far back as the Cremins years (and then maybe Hewitt’s first year). I don’t know how to fix it, but it’s broken. And all you have to do is watch the NCAA Tournament to see how important 3-pt shooting is, even to teams with dominant big men.

So far this season Tech ranks 338th (out of about 360) in the NCAA in 3-pt shooting percentage (28.3). Going back (I only checked last 15 years), Tech has ranked 216th, 92nd (‘20-21, peak JA & MD), 123rd, 287th, 333rd, 326th, 269th, 130th, 112th, 312th, 311th, 267th, 293rd, and 325th.

I am as baffled as everyone else as to why our 3-pt shooting has been so bad - for so long. We have had several recruits that were supposed to be great 3-pt shooters, but almost each one has fallen short of expectations. Until Tech is able to change our 3-pt shooting woes, I’m afraid our W-L records will remain below .500.

 

[78pike]

Our shooting numbers are pretty bad yet somehow we have managed to be in just about every game, except two, and had a chance to win right up until the end. This despite the poor shooting and lots of youth playing major minutes. As stated before, it feels like we have a shot to win every game we play. Plus the style of play is much more exciting than previous years. It makes every game compelling to watch. The future looks bright. It looks like we might have the coach to bring us back to the golden years of the thriller dome when it was the place to be be for fans and even the celeb or two.

 

[hsegars]

Seems LIKE WE COULD GIVE UP SOME AHLETISM FOR SOME WHO CAN SHOOT INCLUDING FREE THROWS

 

[Root4GT]

Seems LIKE WE COULD GIVE UP SOME AHLETISM FOR SOME WHO CAN SHOOT INCLUDING FREE THROWS

Reeves and Sturdivant are shooting well from the foul line. No one else is. Coleman is the one who seems he should be a good FT shooter but never has been in his GT career. Kelly dipping from 90% to 70% is a huge drop off. None of the Bigs are any good at the FT line and George is poor there and from 3 point range.

 

[78pike]

Reeves and Sturdivant are shooting well from the foul line. No one else is. Coleman is the one who seems he should be a good FT shooter but never has been in his GT career. Kelly dipping from 90% to 70% is a huge drop off. None of the Bigs are any good at the FT line and George is poor there and from 3 point range.

Coleman has never gone to the line much mostly because he has spent most of his time outside the 3 point line. Before last game Ndongo was at 70% from the line which isn't bad for a big man. I also seem to remember him hitting some big late game free throws during our long road trip. I think he shoots them better in pressure situations where he has better focus.

George is really the one who needs to improve. He drives to the basket a fair amount and needs to knock them down when he gets fouled. Also, we want to be able to have him on the court for his ball handling when we are up a couple points late in the game and the other team is intentionally fouling after pressing us.

 

[Techwood Relict]

I am optimistic about GT basketball because of Coach Stoudamire.

Agreed. New life, great group of young men. I like rooting for this team, even if the growing pains are tough.

 

[BraveandBold]

It has been a season of ups and downs but I am optimistic about our future. We are much, much, more athletic and play hard. Ndongo has the potential to see his jersey in the rafters if he sticks around and graduates. George will be a solid point guard. Other newcomers have shown flashes of great promises. The veterans have bought into the program. Stoudamire has made a huge difference. We have a chance in every game. I look forward to the rest of this season and upcoming seasons with the new recruits.