Interesting what-if exercise

[roadkill]

It’s the offseason, so it’s fun to speculate. I was considering how the outcome of a game often hinges on just a handful of key plays. But what about the outcome of a season?

Here’s a “What if” scenario for our very first game last year:

Against Louisville, instead of missing on both of his two field goal tries, Stewart (or in hindsight, had Birr replaced him earlier) actually made them? We win the game (all else being equal).

This results in GT finishing the season 6-2 in the ACC, instead of 5-3. We are now in a 3-way tie for second place in the standings (GT/Louisville/NCSt), with a bid to the ACC Championship game at stake.

Both GT and NCSt hold the tiebreaker over Louisville.

Since GT and NCSt didn’t play each other, and have an identical overall record against common opponents, the third-order tiebreaker rule applies (record weighted by order of finish of common opponents). GT wins this tiebreaker due to the Louisville win and faces FSU in the Championship.

Here the speculation really gets interesting. Louisville lost the ACC Championship because, despite having virtually no offensive production from their third-string QB, FSU held Louisville to only 6 points. So now the question is, with the way our offense was humming at the end of last season, could we have outscored a weakened FSU and won the ACC? Perhaps. All due to the swing from a couple of field goals in our first game.

 

[boger2337]

It’s the offseason, so it’s fun to speculate. I was considering how the outcome of a game often hinges on just a handful of key plays. But what about the outcome of a season?

Here’s a “What if” scenario for our very first game last year:

Against Louisville, instead of missing on both of his two field goal tries, Stewart (or in hindsight, had Birr replaced him earlier) actually made them? We win the game (all else being equal).

This results in GT finishing the season 6-2 in the ACC, instead of 5-3. We are now in a 3-way tie for second place in the standings (GT/Louisville/NCSt), with a bid to the ACC Championship game at stake.

Both GT and NCSt hold the tiebreaker over Louisville.

Since GT and NCSt didn’t play each other, and have an identical overall record against common opponents, the third-order tiebreaker rule applies (record weighted by order of finish of common opponents). GT wins this tiebreaker due to the Louisville win and faces FSU in the Championship.

Here the speculation really gets interesting. Louisville lost the ACC Championship because, despite having virtually no offensive production from their third-string QB, FSU held Louisville to only 6 points. So now the question is, with the way our offense was humming at the end of last season, could we have outscored a weakened FSU and won the ACC? Perhaps. All due to the swing from a couple of field goals in our first game.

I thought of this last night. A win in that first game and I think GT is the ACC champions. FSUs D is good, but GT was humming along at that time of the year.

Could you imagine GT the reigning ACC champions? The perspective of the program would be different and viewed as a playoff contender this year. Letting that Louisville game slip away really hurt.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Louisville had a slightly better OFEI (30) than us (33) so I don't know if we'd have been any more successful against FSU (10th ranked DFEI) than uga (11th ranked DFEI). FSUs defense in the ACCCG was deadly as they were playing with the knowledge that their offense wasn't going to give them much help.

 

[roadkill]

Louisville had a slightly better OFEI (30) than us (33) so I don't know if we'd have been any more successful against FSU (10th ranked DFEI) than uga (11th ranked DFEI). FSUs defense in the ACCCG was deadly as they were playing with the knowledge that their offense wasn't going to give them much help.

True, but here are a few counters to your point. By no means am I saying we would surely have won the championship.

Had we scored on the drives that ended in missed field goals in our first game, our OFEI would have improved slightly. Either way, it's probably a wash in terms of who had the best offense over the course of the season.

Louisville lost their last three games. We won 2 of 3. We scored 23 points against the 11th-best DFEI (uga), and 21 points against the 4th-best (Clemson). FSU scored 16 points to win the championship. Just sayin'.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Here’s another one: what if Mario Cristobal was not an idiot?

 

[roadkill]

Here’s another one: what if Mario Cristobal was not an idiot?

It's been said that in order to go undefeated and win a national championship, you need more than just a great team - you also need a little luck.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

True, but here are a few counters to your point. By no means am I saying we would surely have won the championship.

Had we scored on the drives that ended in missed field goals in our first game, our OFEI would have improved slightly. Either way, it's probably a wash in terms of who had the best offense over the course of the season.

Louisville lost their last three games. We won 2 of 3. We scored 23 points against the 11th-best DFEI (uga), and 21 points against the 4th-best (Clemson). FSU scored 16 points to win the championship. Just sayin'.

We scored 14 garbage time points against Clemson to make a 42-7 game entering the 4th qtr a 42-21 final score. We scored more points against uga than anyone last year, but that game was never really in doubt in the second half. We made strides last year, but even had we won the Louisville game, I really don't see us being any more competitive against FSU than Louisville was. That was a scary good defense.

 

[roadkill]

We scored 14 garbage time points against Clemson to make a 42-7 game entering the 4th qtr a 42-21 final score. We scored more points against uga than anyone last year, but that game was never really in doubt in the second half. We made strides last year, but even had we won the Louisville game, I really don't see us being any more competitive against FSU than Louisville was. That was a scary good defense.

All valid points. Here's another speculative question - had we played the Gasparilla Bowl as a rematch against Louisville rather than UCF, how might we have fared?

In any case, to think were that close to making it to the ACC Championship game, even if once there we failed to overcome FSU's defense, is just crazy.

 

[stinger78]

It's been said that in order to go undefeated and win a national championship, you need more than just a great team - you also need a little luck.

Luck...stupidity... sometimes there's no difference.

Thanks Mario.

 

[takethepoints]

It's been said that in order to go undefeated and win a national championship, you need more than just a great team - you also need a little luck.

A little!!?? You need a boatload to get there. Even great teams fail to reach the final all the time. Like Paul used to say, that's why you play the games.

 

[takethepoints]

We scored more points against uga than anyone last year, but that game was never really in doubt in the second half.

Well … the dwag fans around me didn't quite agree. They were a trifle flustered in the fourth quarter until they recovered the on-side kick. Too bad, that.

 

[roadkill]

Well … the dwag fans around me didn't quite agree. They were a trifle flustered in the fourth quarter until they recovered the on-side kick. Too bad, that.

Agree that trying to diminish our performance against the 11th-ranked defense is a weak argument. We were still in that game until the last few minutes.

 

[4shotB]

Well … the dwag fans around me didn't quite agree. They were a trifle flustered in the fourth quarter until they recovered the on-side kick. Too bad, that.

I agree with this take on the issue. I was there. Ny first GT-Uga game in decades. This was a game that truly went deep into the fourth quarter and the outcome was in doubt until the very end. First time we actually compteted with them since ????. Did they have the upper hand on the field of play? Yes, as usual. But this game was a true battle.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I agree with this take on the issue. I was there. Ny first GT-Uga game in decades. This was a game that truly went deep into the fourth quarter and the outcome was in doubt until the very end. First time we actually compteted with them since ????. Did they have the upper hand on the field of play? Yes, as usual. But this game was a true battle.

We were down by two scores until just under 4 minutes to play. We weren't blown out, and we looked like we belonged on the football field with them, but the game wasn't really in doubt at any point in the second half. I don't say this to diminish our improvement, but to note that we still have to get better in order to actually threaten them. If we get a functioning defense that may well be this year.

 

[roadkill]

We were down by two scores until just under 4 minutes to play. We weren't blown out, and we looked like we belonged on the football field with them, but the game wasn't really in doubt at any point in the second half. I don't say this to diminish our improvement, but to note that we still have to get better in order to actually threaten them. If we get a functioning defense that may well be this year.

The highlighted part of your statement is what I was thinking when I was comparing our offensive performance against elite defenses as it related to "Could we have scored more points than FSU when they had a weak offense." Who knows, but I think we would have had a shot. Setting aside the Orange Bowl game performances, the FSU team we saw in the ACC conference game wasn't in the same league as the uga team we faced in the regular season.

 

[UgaBlows]

We were down by two scores until just under 4 minutes to play. We weren't blown out, and we looked like we belonged on the football field with them, but the game wasn't really in doubt at any point in the second half. I don't say this to diminish our improvement, but to note that we still have to get better in order to actually threaten them. If we get a functioning defense that may well be this year.

I get what your saying about being down rwo scores but we fought back and were a missed 3rd down tackle away from getting the ball back and having a chance to tie it up near the end

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I get what your saying about being down rwo scores but we fought back and were a missed 3rd down tackle away from getting the ball back and having a chance to tie it up near the end

Missed third down tackles were routine for our defense all season long. I'd have been astounded had we actually made a third down tackle...

 

[dressedcheeseside]

My tech roommate 30 years ago, used to say, and I quote “if if's and but’s were candy and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas!”

 

[BurdellJacket]

It’s the offseason, so it’s fun to speculate. I was considering how the outcome of a game often hinges on just a handful of key plays. But what about the outcome of a season?

Here’s a “What if” scenario for our very first game last year:

Against Louisville, instead of missing on both of his two field goal tries, Stewart (or in hindsight, had Birr replaced him earlier) actually made them? We win the game (all else being equal).

This results in GT finishing the season 6-2 in the ACC, instead of 5-3. We are now in a 3-way tie for second place in the standings (GT/Louisville/NCSt), with a bid to the ACC Championship game at stake.

Both GT and NCSt hold the tiebreaker over Louisville.

Since GT and NCSt didn’t play each other, and have an identical overall record against common opponents, the third-order tiebreaker rule applies (record weighted by order of finish of common opponents). GT wins this tiebreaker due to the Louisville win and faces FSU in the Championship.

Here the speculation really gets interesting. Louisville lost the ACC Championship because, despite having virtually no offensive production from their third-string QB, FSU held Louisville to only 6 points. So now the question is, with the way our offense was humming at the end of last season, could we have outscored a weakened FSU and won the ACC? Perhaps. All due to the swing from a couple of field goals in our first game.

Very well done, @roadkill. Thank you!

 

[yeti92]

My tech roommate 30 years ago, used to say, and I quote “if if's and but’s were candy and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas!”

Not if you have a nut allergy