Interesting Contrast in GT Pitching 2023 vs 2024

[gtbeak]

LOL! My reading comprehension skills are fine. You are continuing to make a false choice. If you walk a batter, he will get on base every time. If you do not walk the batter, he will only get on base around 25% of the time. Even if a pitcher grooves a slow fastball middle-middle of the plate, the batter will make an out 70% of the time. The choice is not walk or single. The choice is throw strikes and you are likely to get him out, or throw balls and you are guaranteed not to get him out.

NVM

 

[leatherneckjacket]

NVM

I am still trying to wrap my ahead around how a pitcher knows a batter will get on base. Other than intentional walking him or intentionally throwing at him, how does a pitcher know he will get a hit? Maybe it is a blind spot that I am missing here. Educate me.

Do you think a pitching coach or a manager would ever tell a pitcher after giving up a lead off single, "You should have walked him."

 

[gtbeak]

I am still trying to wrap my ahead around how a pitcher knows a batter will get on base. Other than intentional walking him or intentionally throwing at him, how does a pitcher know he will get a hit? Maybe it is a blind spot that I am missing here. Educate me.

And I'm probably not writing clearly, I'm an engineer, not a writer. However, I will try....

From my reply to you at 8:35 AM, "Obviously this is theoretical since we don't have a crystal ball." IOW, the pitcher doesn't know and this whole discussion is hypothetical.

The discussion is not about whether or not a pitcher should endeavor to throw strikes, we all agree that he should, as I've written four times now. The question from MWBATL at 6:21 PM last evening was how could the 2021 pitching staff have a 1.74 WHIP and a 5.49 ERA while the 2024 pitching staff has the exact same 1.74 WHIP but a 6.48 ERA. A rather large difference, I agree. I provided two potential explanations, both of which I think contribute to the answer. #1 is that the 2021 team allowed 1.74 baserunners/inning with the mix being more tilted in favor of walks and less in favor of hits and homeruns as compared to the 2024 team. Given the fact that both staffs allowed 1.74 baserunners per inning (IOW, you know that 1.74 batters are going to reach base in each hypothetical inning, no more, no less), it is better from a runs allowed POV for those 1.74 batters to reach via walk than a homerun. If the tilt was all 1.74 baserunners reaching via walk your ERA would be 0.00. If the tilt was to the other extreme, all 1.74 batters reaching via homerun, your ERA would be 15.66. To each degree that the mix approaches those two extremes the ERA will vary between those two numbers, but the lower ERA will coincide with the lower hit rate and the higher walk rate. The 2021 team issued more walks, fewer hits and homeruns, and therefore had a lower ERA than the 2024 team.

That is all I'm saying, I'm not arguing against pitchers throwing strikes.

And yes, I know that sequencing and luck around that could also make two staffs with equal walk rates, equal hit rates, equal homerun rates, etc. have different ERAs, but the drastic homerun rate difference between 2021 and 2024 (~60% higher) seems a more likely explanation, along with the apparent lack of errors as highlighted by the drastic reduction in unearned runs allowed.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

And I'm probably not writing clearly, I'm an engineer, not a writer. However, I will try....

From my reply to you at 8:35 AM, "Obviously this is theoretical since we don't have a crystal ball." IOW, the pitcher doesn't know and this whole discussion is hypothetical.

The discussion is not about whether or not a pitcher should endeavor to throw strikes, we all agree that he should, as I've written four times now. The question from MWBATL at 6:21 PM last evening was how could the 2021 pitching staff have a 1.74 WHIP and a 5.49 ERA while the 2024 pitching staff has the exact same 1.74 WHIP but a 6.48 ERA. A rather large difference, I agree. I provided two potential explanations, both of which I think contribute to the answer. #1 is that the 2021 team allowed 1.74 baserunners/inning with the mix being more tilted in favor of walks and less in favor of hits and homeruns as compared to the 2024 team. Given the fact that both staffs allowed 1.74 baserunners per inning (IOW, you know that 1.74 batters are going to reach base in each hypothetical inning, no more, no less), it is better from a runs allowed POV for those 1.74 batters to reach via walk than a homerun. If the tilt was all 1.74 baserunners reaching via walk your ERA would be 0.00. If the tilt was to the other extreme, all 1.74 batters reaching via homerun, your ERA would be 15.66. To each degree that the mix approaches those two extremes the ERA will vary between those two numbers, but the lower ERA will coincide with the lower hit rate and the higher walk rate. The 2021 team issued more walks, fewer hits and homeruns, and therefore had a lower ERA than the 2024 team.

That is all I'm saying, I'm not arguing against pitchers throwing strikes.

And yes, I know that sequencing and luck around that could also make two staffs with equal walk rates, equal hit rates, equal homerun rates, etc. have different ERAs, but the drastic homerun rate difference between 2021 and 2024 (~60% higher) seems a more likely explanation, along with the apparent lack of errors as highlighted by the drastic reduction in unearned runs allowed.

The more obvious answer is that when a staff has the same WHIP despite surrendering fewer walks, their BABIP is extremely high. This is most likely due to allowing harder contact, which will result in more home runs allowed, higher slugging allowed, and higher ERA. Yes, throwing strikes is more desired than throwing balls, but there is also being inaccurate in the zone. You can throw inaccurate strikes that lead to hard contact and more runs. Having said that, not everyone can be Blake Snell and get away with a high walk rate. Throw strikes, mix location and speed, maintain a consistent delivery and arm angle, and be unpredictable and you will do well.

 

[gtbeak]

The more obvious answer is that when a staff has the same WHIP despite surrendering fewer walks, their BABIP is extremely high. This is most likely due to allowing harder contact, which will result in more home runs allowed, higher slugging allowed, and higher ERA. Yes, throwing strikes is more desired than throwing balls, but there is also being inaccurate in the zone. You can throw inaccurate strikes that lead to hard contact and more runs. Having said that, not everyone can be Blake Snell and get away with a high walk rate. Throw strikes, mix location and speed, maintain a consistent delivery and arm angle, and be unpredictable and you will do well.

IOW, giving up more hits, especially homeruns, will result in a higher ERA. I wish I had thought of that explanation!

I think we are in agreement just talking past each other. I respect your baseball knowledge, and I miss your presence on the other site discussing baseball topics.

 

[GT33]

Some hits are not singles. Can everyone agree that a double, triple or home run is better than a single, walk or HBP? I think if we start there, you guys may find a common point from which to continue the argument so we get a winner.

 

[MWBATL]

Hey I got my answer a page ago when gtbeak pointed out that HRs were up.

I’m happy

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Hey I got my answer a page ago when gtbeak pointed out that HRs were up.

I’m happy

After a good ERA weekend versus Miami, I'm happy we are up to 7th in ERA in ACC only games. Beats 13th last year.

 

[gtbeak]

Some hits are not singles. Can everyone agree that a double, triple or home run is better than a single, walk or HBP? I think if we start there, you guys may find a common point from which to continue the argument so we get a winner.

I think we're all good. I agree with nearly all of LNJ's post from 4:37 PM, my only confusion is I don't know how that is different than what I've been saying all day. I know from experience that LNJ knows his baseball. I like to think I do as well, I just wasn't writing clearly enough.

 

[GT33]

I think we're all good. I agree with nearly all of LNJ's post from 4:37 PM, my only confusion is I don't know how that is different than what I've been saying all day. I know from experience that LNJ knows his baseball. I like to think I do as well, I just wasn't writing clearly enough.

Trick question, answer is it depends.

Let's say it's bases loaded, 2 outs & down by 5 in B9. Burress is up, Ellis on deck. Gieseler was in the hole, but he got pulled (sick) and replaced by Nieses. Burress doubles to cut lead to 3, so they intentionally walk Ellis to reload the bases and get to Nieses who's batting .167.

Wouldn't you rather have Ellis up with the bases loaded and down 4 instead of Niese down 3 and bases loaded?

 

[gtbeak]

Trick question, answer is it depends.

Let's say it's bases loaded, 2 outs & down by 5 in B9. Burress is up, Ellis on deck. Gieseler was in the hole, but he got pulled (sick) and replaced by Nieses. Burress doubles to cut lead to 3, so they intentionally walk Ellis to reload the bases and get to Nieses who's batting .167.

Wouldn't you rather have Ellis up with the bases loaded and down 4 instead of Niese down 3 and bases loaded?

Not sure I follow. You seem to be implying that what I have been saying all day is that it would be better for Tech if Ellis were to be intentionally walked, when I think what I've been saying is that it would be best for Ellis to hit a homerun, and if not that an extra base hit, or a single, on down the line to a walk being the least preferable of instances where he doesn't make an out.

This whole discussion is as obvious to me as stating that water is wet. I must really be writing poorly. My apologies.

 

[GT33]

Not sure I follow. You seem to be implying that what I have been saying all day is that it would be better for Tech if Ellis were to be intentionally walked, when I think what I've been saying is that it would be best for Ellis to hit a homerun, and if not that an extra base hit, or a single, on down the line to a walk being the least preferable of instances where he doesn't make an out.

This whole discussion is as obvious to me as stating that water is wet. I must really be writing poorly. My apologies.

You're fine, just saying that every situation has an angle. Every coach makes decisions and us fans sit around and arm chair QB after the fact. It's what makes sports interesting.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Not sure I follow. You seem to be implying that what I have been saying all day is that it would be better for Tech if Ellis were to be intentionally walked, when I think what I've been saying is that it would be best for Ellis to hit a homerun, and if not that an extra base hit, or a single, on down the line to a walk being the least preferable of instances where he doesn't make an out.

This whole discussion is as obvious to me as stating that water is wet. I must really be writing poorly. My apologies.

You're fine in your writing I think. You and leatherneck were talking past each other with different starting assumptions I think. But I'm not going to go back and analyze it.

May just be me but with no outs and a man on first, I'm hoping for us to get a walk rather than the ball in play DP. The problem with analyzing xomething like this is the hitter really doesn't have full control. He can not swing and try to foul off till he gets the walk. But that may mean letting good pitches go by.

It's all situation specific what you try with an unknown future when you are playing the game.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Trick question, answer is it depends.

Let's say it's bases loaded, 2 outs & down by 5 in B9. Burress is up, Ellis on deck. Gieseler was in the hole, but he got pulled (sick) and replaced by Nieses. Burress doubles to cut lead to 3, so they intentionally walk Ellis to reload the bases and get to Nieses who's batting .167.

Wouldn't you rather have Ellis up with the bases loaded and down 4 instead of Niese down 3 and bases loaded?

Depends partly on how well Niese can draw a walk or bunt for a hit and who's up next.. I think part of the confusion with scenarios is that it's not just one play but a series of plays till there are three outs.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

As the pitching team, you generally do not want to walk a batter unless it creates a force out situation or a significant matchup advantage. Further, the pitching team has the odds in their favor regardless if the batter makes contact or not. Getting a hit is tough. But when it happens, it is better if there are fewer baserunners. Walks lead to more baserunners, which will lead to more runs. Anyway, nothing will drive a manager crazier than walking batters with a big lead. I would even think they would tolerate an extra base hit, including a home run, if the pitcher throws strikes with a big lead. In that case, they may think a walk is worse than an extra base hit. You are trying to get outs. Walks prevent outs, Throwing strikes gets outs.

 

[Bogey]

It seems to me that coach Taylor has worked with our pitchers on developing and adding the changeup as one. of their primary pitches which has proven to be highly effective. When thrown correctly. It is very deceptive and controllable. Just my opinion as an ex infielder who knows little about pitching.