Interesting Contrast in GT Pitching 2023 vs 2024
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MWBATL
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It's all about the pitching.
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Also need to consider that ERA is relative. ERA is up across D1 baseball this year.
Last year our ERA was 13th of 14 ACC only ERA. This year it's 9 of 14 ACC only going into this weekend and it got better this weekend.
Last year our ERA was 13th of 14 ACC only ERA. This year it's 9 of 14 ACC only going into this weekend and it got better this weekend.
GTRambler
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Last year’s (2023, completed season) ACC Baseball Statistics show that GT pitchers issued a total of 300 walks.
This year’s 2024 current mark to date, shows a total of 173.
MWBATL
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Is that ACC only or all games?
GTRambler
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Overall, all games. There are separate charts for conference-only games.
gtbeak
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Here are the numbers in conference play + UGa + NCAA Tournament games by season since I started tracking in 2019 (2020 season excluded since we only played one series):
Note, these are for the top 11 or 12 pitchers by innings pitched, so the bottom of the roster guys who got thrown in there in there for a few batters in a route don't get counted. I chose 11 or 12 to account for 3 starters and 8 relievers since that is the size of a major league bullpen and is how I'm used to thinking of pitching staffs and their management. In some cases I included a 12th pitcher if they were used in key situations during the season (Diamant last year, Jackson Finley before getting hurt in 2021, as examples)
2024: 6.48 ERA, 4.62 BB/9, 0.93 HBP/9, 1.74 WHIP, .285 OBA, 17.9 pitches/inning
2023: 6.83 ERA, 5.47 BB/9, 1.10 HBP/9, 1.90 WHIP, .292 OBA, 19.1 pitches/inning
2022: 7.50 ERA, 5.48 BB/9, 1.30 HBP/9, 2.02 WHIP, .299 OBA, 19.6 pitches/inning
2021: 5.49 ERA, 4.95 BB/9, 1.11 HBP/9, 1.74 WHIP, .271 OBA, 18.0 pitches/inning
2020:
2019: 5.16 ERA, 3.37 BB/9, 0.82 HBP/9, 1.53 WHIP, .269 OBA, 16.3 pitches/inning
And, as mentioned a few times, the run environment has been increasing annually since Covid. The improvement year-over-year between 2023 and 2024 is clear. Also very clear is the really good pitching staff that we had in 2019, with 2 having already pitched in the major leagues (Curry & Willingham), 2 knocking on the door at AAA (Thomas & Hurter), plus another still holding down a spot at AA (Hughes).
MWBATL
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Good detail, thanks. I find it interesting that the WHIP in 2024 matches that of 2021, yet our ERA is a full run per game higher. Trying to figure out how that can be.....
gtbeak
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I don't track homeruns allowed, but looking at the stats on theacc.com, I see that this year we have allowed 37 homeruns in our 21 conference games, whereas for the entire 2021 season we only allowed 40 homeruns in 36 games. I know we like to say "don't walk batters", but that is because when you walk a batter you have no chance of getting them out, whereas pitching to contact you have the chance that the hitter will hit a rocket right at your fielder. BUT, if you know the batter is going to reach base, the best way for this to happen is a HBP (saves on the pitch count, no chance for a wild pitch), followed closely by a walk, and then the various degrees of base hits. When you allow the same amount of baserunners but 60% more homeruns you should expect the amount of runs scored against you to rise.
Another difference is that I reported ERA, not RA. If you look at RA the two seasons are closer (6.28 in 2021, 6.85 in 2024). In 2021 we allowed 0.74 unearned runs per game, this year we are only allowing 0.33 unearned runs per game (one a weekend). This is another datapoint showing our improved defense this season.
ETA: I should note that the increased homeruns allowed this season IS NOT NECESSARILY an indictment on our pitching. Homeruns are up quite a bit the past few years, probably driven by a combination of older players from the extra Covid season plus the generally accepted belief that the balls are juiced. This season the median team is hitting 1.54 HR/Game in conference play, in 2021 that would have tied for 2nd in the conference.
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78pike
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Maybe more homers given up or extra bases overall since WHIP counts a single the same as a double or a homer.
78pike
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I think the one thing we can all agree on is our pitching is much improved over the fiasco of the last couple years. It's amazing what can happen when you simply throw strikes and let your defense play behind you instead of trying to strike out every batter. I think you can see a big difference when Taylor makes a trip to the mound and both the catcher and pitcher give their feedback. I also think we have some veteran pitchers who aren't afraid to shake off pitch calls and go with what they think is working. I feel like we have seen that more this year than previous years. And finally I think the new pitch clock works to our favor. We have guys that tend to like pitching faster anyway so it plays to one of our strengths.
One of the things that I found interesting during the UVA series was the number of times their pitchers threw pickoffs to first base. It seemed like an obvious attempt to slow the game down. I know their pitching isn't the strength it usually is but I'm not sure that tactic does them any favors.
One of the things that I found interesting during the UVA series was the number of times their pitchers threw pickoffs to first base. It seemed like an obvious attempt to slow the game down. I know their pitching isn't the strength it usually is but I'm not sure that tactic does them any favors.
leatherneckjacket
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If you are up by more than two runs, I would rather give up a lead off home run than a walk. A walk is never better than a single and many times much wors. When you have a big lead, throw strikes, induce contact, and get outs. That is what Cam did this weekend with a 9-0 lead. He gave up two home runs and four runs, but the game was never close.
gtbeak
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The question was how can two pitching staffs allow the same amount of baserunners and yet one have an ERA a full run per game higher than the other. In the context of answering that I wrote that you want to pitch to contact (really I meant throw strikes, I'd rather get swing and miss over contact) since you have the chance for the hitter to hit a rocket right at one of your fielders, but that if you know for a fact that the hitter is going to reach base then you would prefer him to reach base via walk. Obviously this is theoretical since we don't have a crystal ball. But, I would rather have a three run lead with a runner at 1st than I would a two run lead with bases empty. I'd bet you've never seen a hitter hit a gapper and stop at first because he wanted to simulate a walk as closely as he could. A walk is better than a single because other baserunners only get to advance one base with a walk, whereas they can sometimes go 1st to 3rd on a single and usually score from 2nd.
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leatherneckjacket
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I completely disagree that getting on base by a walk is better than getting on base by a single. I do not think any manager, pitching coach or pitcher would agree with you. Walks are almost always worse than singles. Throwing strikes allows pitchers to leave the zone and leads to softer contact. Throwing balls does the opposite. They run up pitch count, and can often lead to more walks or harder contact as the pitcher tries to get the ball in the zone.
Let me put it this way, the on base percentage for walks is 100%. The on base percentage for non walks is less than 25%. Throwing strikes is the best way to win games. Giving up an occasional hit, including home runs, is better than constantly creating traffic on the bases as you walk batters trying to avoid hard contact.
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gtbeak
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Your reading comprehension skills are failing you. The OBP for walks is 100%, but the OBP for walks, HBP, and base hits is also 100%. And as I have now said three times***, I am only saying a walk is better than a hit IFF it is known that the hitter will be getting on base. I agree 100% it is better for a pitcher to throw strikes. That has never been a question in this discussion. But the question at hand was how can two pitching staffs with a WHIP of 1.74 have vastly different ERAs, and I pointed out the likely explanation is that one staff gives up homeruns at a rate that is 60% higher than the other staff. The 2021 staff walked more batters but limited hits and especially homeruns, while the 2024 staff limits the walks a little better but gives up base hits and especially homeruns at a higher rate.
The OPS for a walk is 1.000, same for a HBP. The OPS for a base hit is AT A MINIMUM 2.000, but likely higher. Same for wOBA, though I'd have to dig up my wOBA calculation articles to know the exact difference.
*** My first post: "I know we like to say "don't walk batters", but that is because when you walk a batter you have no chance of getting them out, whereas pitching to contact you have the chance that the hitter will hit a rocket right at your fielder." My 2nd post "you want to pitch to contact (really I meant throw strikes, I'd rather get swing and miss over contact) since you have the chance for the hitter to hit a rocket right at one of your fielders".
leatherneckjacket
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LOL! My reading comprehension skills are fine. You are continuing to make a false choice. If you walk a batter, he will get on base every time. If you do not walk the batter, he will only get on base around 25% of the time. Even if a pitcher grooves a slow fastball middle-middle of the plate, the batter will make an out 70% of the time. The choice is not walk or single. The choice is throw strikes and you are likely to get him out, or throw balls and you are guaranteed not to get him out.