I absolutely love this!!!

Backstreetbuzz

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
520
I would start Jones in game 1, Hill in game two, staff days if we have more games. I would also have a very quick hook, no need saving anyone. Also, no sac bunting before inning 7 unless maybe Lackey.
 
gtbeak

gtbeak

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
529
I agree with those who say we don't have an ace and therefore choosing who should get the starts is essentially a random decision. Finateri, Jones, McKee, even McGuire, and King are all capable of having good outings and just as likely to be very poor. In this case I'll trust the coaches to read the room and put the players in the best position to be successful. If I absolutely had to make the decision I would probably go with Finateri and then Jones, mainly because Jones doesn't give up as many homers as Fin and therefore I would want him pitching in the potential UGa game, but I don't feel real strongly one way or the other.
 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,526
So, I have been looking at some of our pitching results with more detail, pretending I could figure out who we should pitch when based on their history this year. Here are some things I have noticed.

SOME PITCHERS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD RESULTS....UNTIL THEY DON'T

STARTERS:
Aeden Finateri pitches to contact and as a result gives up LOTS more hits and HR's. 1.26 H/9 INN. 0.306 BA against.With all due respect, He had 7 poor starts out of 11 ACC starts. To his credit he had a 2.45 ERA in his 4 NC starts. (including UGa). So, I guess the question with Aeden is he slumping late in the year or is it just better teams getting to him. I'm not sure about Aeden. Maybe he could be effective against UNC-Wilmington or Army (if we face them). But I sure would worry about him vs UGa. (And yes, I see what he did against them early, but is his confidence shattered by his recent results?)

Tate McGee has seen his numbers slump as the competition has gotten tougher late in the season as well. He has allowed 28 ER in his last 22 2/3 IP over his last 7 starts. But that was against Virginia, VPI, Clemson Duke and FSU...some pretty good hitting clubs. Before that, his ERA was 4.03, and that was including not so great games against UNC and BC. My point is, IF we think UNC-Wilmington is not a greta hitting team, it might be worth a chance starting Tate as he did just fine against weaker hitting teams. (And no, I cannot say that about all of our pitchers).

Cam Jones seems to have been steadiest overall. Cam (like others) has been burned by the better teams we faced late in the year. But he hasd allowed only 9 HR's all year and has a 1.36 WHIP (which I think is the one of the best on the staff).

Logan McGuire is intriguing. Some horrid outings (Auburn, UNC, BC and FSU), but a 2.84 ERA besides those nightmares. Granted, the competition on those other appearances (5 starts and 2 in relief) wasn't as tough, but it did include Miami, UGa, and FSU. Dunno what to make of this guy. Seems like our coaches have lost confidence in him though.

BULLPEN:
Brett Thomas has made 28 appearances. For 25 of those he has a 2.66 ERA and 0.93 hits/9 INN. So, aside from walks, he's been pretty darn good on 25 of his 28 appearances. Those other 3 appearances....well, 9 ER in 4 1/3 innings. Somehow, if we could figure out in the bullpen whether he "has it" on this particular day, he'd be great!

Cam Hill is the only pitcher on our roster with fewer hits allowed than innings pitched. An overall rate of 0.91 H/9 INN. and a 0.239 BA against. He usually has been good until...boom, he loses it all at once. Against FSU, I think it was 3 walks/HBP followed by a grand slam HR....only one hit but ouch. So, maybe he's a guy you limit to 2 innings. Ever.

Dawson Brown has been steady out of the bullpen as well. Generally. Sort of. Like Brett Thomas, actually. 22 total appearances. 5 of those were terrible (14 ER in 4 2/3 innings). Otherwise, it was a 1.96 ERA He also sports a 1.27 WHIP (including all games). Again, the issue here is can we tell when he's "got it" and when he doesn't "got it" ?

Ben King is a bit different. Ben was pretty much OK throughout, but never as effective as Thomas or Brown generally. He didn't have those horrible outlier games. In fact he had poor outings against weak hitting teams (Radford, Youngstown State and Georgia Southern) but was decent against ACC competition. Not stellar, but decent. My concern with Ben is whether he is just a one pitch guy. I'd say he should be the 4th arm out of the bullpen unless we have a particular hitter/situation where his pitch (slider, right?) would work.

Terry Busse hasn't gotten much work after a disastrous opening performance. But since then, he has been...better. Not great, but better. 1.83 WHIP, 4.15 ERA. 7 BB's in his first 3 appearances, 3 BB's in his last 8 appearances. I wouldn't be afraid to see him come out of the pen for an inning, two max.

Riley Stanford is young with great potential and great stuff. But of his 17 relief appearances, I would rate 6 as "fails". That's not a good enough ratio unless you can tell he's hot in the bullpen, His overall WHIP of 2.11 isn't steady enough if he's poor 1 out of every 3 trips to the mound, when guys like Dawson and Brett have better rations. I'd have him eat innings if we are ahead by 6 or behind by 6.
____________________________________________________________________________________________

All in all, it's not maybe as bad as I thought. I would LOVE to hold Cam Jones as a starter for the UGa game, but if we lose Game 1 that doesn't matter. I can't get into the heads of the other 3 pitchers. All have potential to do decent if UNC-Wilmington isn't a good offensive club. All 3 could put us in a deep hole if they are not on. I'd love to se eus get 4 or 5 innings out of our starter in Game 1, get ahead by 5 runs and use Busse, King and Stanford to close out that game.
 

senoiajacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,130
MWBATL said:
So, I have been looking at some of our pitching results with more detail, pretending I could figure out who we should pitch when based on their history this year. Here are some things I have noticed.

SOME PITCHERS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD RESULTS....UNTIL THEY DON'T

STARTERS:
Aeden Finateri pitches to contact and as a result gives up LOTS more hits and HR's. 1.26 H/9 INN. 0.306 BA against.With all due respect, He had 7 poor starts out of 11 ACC starts. To his credit he had a 2.45 ERA in his 4 NC starts. (including UGa). So, I guess the question with Aeden is he slumping late in the year or is it just better teams getting to him. I'm not sure about Aeden. Maybe he could be effective against UNC-Wilmington or Army (if we face them). But I sure would worry about him vs UGa. (And yes, I see what he did against them early, but is his confidence shattered by his recent results?)

Tate McGee has seen his numbers slump as the competition has gotten tougher late in the season as well. He has allowed 28 ER in his last 22 2/3 IP over his last 7 starts. But that was against Virginia, VPI, Clemson Duke and FSU...some pretty good hitting clubs. Before that, his ERA was 4.03, and that was including not so great games against UNC and BC. My point is, IF we think UNC-Wilmington is not a greta hitting team, it might be worth a chance starting Tate as he did just fine against weaker hitting teams. (And no, I cannot say that about all of our pitchers).

Cam Jones seems to have been steadiest overall. Cam (like others) has been burned by the better teams we faced late in the year. But he hasd allowed only 9 HR's all year and has a 1.36 WHIP (which I think is the one of the best on the staff).

Logan McGuire is intriguing. Some horrid outings (Auburn, UNC, BC and FSU), but a 2.84 ERA besides those nightmares. Granted, the competition on those other appearances (5 starts and 2 in relief) wasn't as tough, but it did include Miami, UGa, and FSU. Dunno what to make of this guy. Seems like our coaches have lost confidence in him though.

BULLPEN:
Brett Thomas has made 28 appearances. For 25 of those he has a 2.66 ERA and 0.93 hits/9 INN. So, aside from walks, he's been pretty darn good on 25 of his 28 appearances. Those other 3 appearances....well, 9 ER in 4 1/3 innings. Somehow, if we could figure out in the bullpen whether he "has it" on this particular day, he'd be great!

Cam Hill is the only pitcher on our roster with fewer hits allowed than innings pitched. An overall rate of 0.91 H/9 INN. and a 0.239 BA against. He usually has been good until...boom, he loses it all at once. Against FSU, I think it was 3 walks/HBP followed by a grand slam HR....only one hit but ouch. So, maybe he's a guy you limit to 2 innings. Ever.

Dawson Brown has been steady out of the bullpen as well. Generally. Sort of. Like Brett Thomas, actually. 22 total appearances. 5 of those were terrible (14 ER in 4 2/3 innings). Otherwise, it was a 1.96 ERA He also sports a 1.27 WHIP (including all games). Again, the issue here is can we tell when he's "got it" and when he doesn't "got it" ?

Ben King is a bit different. Ben was pretty much OK throughout, but never as effective as Thomas or Brown generally. He didn't have those horrible outlier games. In fact he had poor outings against weak hitting teams (Radford, Youngstown State and Georgia Southern) but was decent against ACC competition. Not stellar, but decent. My concern with Ben is whether he is just a one pitch guy. I'd say he should be the 4th arm out of the bullpen unless we have a particular hitter/situation where his pitch (slider, right?) would work.

Terry Busse hasn't gotten much work after a disastrous opening performance. But since then, he has been...better. Not great, but better. 1.83 WHIP, 4.15 ERA. 7 BB's in his first 3 appearances, 3 BB's in his last 8 appearances. I wouldn't be afraid to see him come out of the pen for an inning, two max.

Riley Stanford is young with great potential and great stuff. But of his 17 relief appearances, I would rate 6 as "fails". That's not a good enough ratio unless you can tell he's hot in the bullpen, His overall WHIP of 2.11 isn't steady enough if he's poor 1 out of every 3 trips to the mound, when guys like Dawson and Brett have better rations. I'd have him eat innings if we are ahead by 6 or behind by 6.
____________________________________________________________________________________________

All in all, it's not maybe as bad as I thought. I would LOVE to hold Cam Jones as a starter for the UGa game, but if we lose Game 1 that doesn't matter. I can't get into the heads of the other 3 pitchers. All have potential to do decent if UNC-Wilmington isn't a good offensive club. All 3 could put us in a deep hole if they are not on. I'd love to se eus get 4 or 5 innings out of our starter in Game 1, get ahead by 5 runs and use Busse, King and Stanford to close out that game.
Click to expand...
“…… and use Busse, King, and Stanford to close out that game.”

YIKES!! What’s the probability that we would get the “good” version of all three of those guys on the same day? Scares me just thinking g about it.
 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,526
senoiajacket said:
“…… and use Busse, King, and Stanford to close out that game.”

YIKES!! What’s the probability that we would get the “good” version of all three of those guys on the same day? Scares me just thinking g about it.
Click to expand...
Well, that’s why I specified a 5 run lead.

What….not enough??
 

CINCYMETJACKET

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,216
MWBATL said:
MWBATL said:
BULLPEN:
Brett Thomas has made 28 appearances. For 25 of those he has a 2.66 ERA and 0.93 hits/9 INN. So, aside from walks, he's been pretty darn good on 25 of his 28 appearances. Those other 3 appearances....well, 9 ER in 4 1/3 innings. Somehow, if we could figure out in the bullpen whether he "has it" on this particular day, he'd be great!
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, there are a lot of MLB pitchers that can't figure out "whether they have it or not" in the bullpen. I've seen or read many post-game reports where pitchers will claim that they felt great in their bullpen and pitched like s*** and vice versa. Sometimes when you have your worst bullpen pre-game, you have the best game of your career.
Click to expand...
 
GTNavyNuke

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
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senoiajacket said:
“…… and use Busse, King, and Stanford to close out that game.”

YIKES!! What’s the probability that we would get the “good” version of all three of those guys on the same day? Scares me just thinking g about it.
Click to expand...

So you don't like playing Russian Roulette either?

I don't get upset when a pitcher has a bad go. It's when he's left in to absorb 5 or more ER that I get upset.
 
GTNavyNuke

GTNavyNuke

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dmurdock said:
This would be my plan after reading MWBATL's analysis:
  • Game 1: McGee
  • Game 2:
    • Winners Bracket: Jones
    • Losers Bracket: Jones vs UGA, Finateri vs Army
  • Game 3: Jones/Finateri
  • Game 4: Hill
  • Game 5: Staff w/ quick hook
Click to expand...

Rational. Jones probability of success function better than McKee but we don't have many horses to run.
 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,526
dmurdock said:
This would be my plan after reading MWBATL's analysis:
  • Game 1: McGee
  • Game 2:
    • Winners Bracket: Jones
    • Losers Bracket: Jones vs UGA, Finateri vs Army
  • Game 3: Jones/Finateri
  • Game 4: Hill
  • Game 5: Staff w/ quick hook
Click to expand...
I understand exactly your reasoning. I am just so afraid of that first game against UNC-W I find myself gravitating to Jones because I think he gives us the best chance to win.

I acknowledge however that after that....it wouldn't look so good. Unless some guys pitch better than recent form, anyway.
 

dmurdock

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
299
Location
North Port, FL
MWBATL said:
I understand exactly your reasoning. I am just so afraid of that first game against UNC-W I find myself gravitating to Jones because I think he gives us the best chance to win.

I acknowledge however that after that....it wouldn't look so good. Unless some guys pitch better than recent form, anyway.
Click to expand...

I agree that pitching Jones in Game 1 increases our chances of winning Game 1, but I think it also significantly reduces our probability of staying in the Winners Bracket. My focus is on winning the regional (which includes winning Game 1 but as part of a 3-5 game strategy) rather than simply focusing on winning Game 1 - forest vs a tree. You're afraid of UNCW (very justified), I'm more afraid of any of our starters other than Jones against UGA. We have to win at least 3 games to win the Regional, so it has to be more than just Jones, and Jones is by no means an ace but rather has been our most reliable pitcher.

Another thought occurred to me last night. I was reading that Army has an ace pitcher. What if Army is able to ride their ace and pull off the upset of UGA. They play before us, so we will know who wins that game, and, with an Army upset, UNCW becomes the biggest obstacle for us to stay in the winners bracket. At that point, I would be tempted to start Jones vs UNCW and plan on Finateri in Game 2 vs Army.

Let's face it though, if we are to have any chance of winning a regional, our entire pitching staff has to perform better than they have all season. That or our bats have to be Caveman Extreme the entire weekend and avoid getting shut down like often happens against good pitching.
 
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