How Much Time Does Is Reasonable To Evaluate CDS?

[lv20gt]

Evaluating from the perspective of an AD is different than from the perspective of a fan.

From the fan perspective, I don't know why you wouldn't judge what he has done already. Barring something like revitalizing a program from the death penalty I don't see why you wouldn't judge a coach at all. Obviously context should be taken into account which is why you can look at things like Gregory's last year and Pastner's first year which were nearly identical in record, but one got a coach fired (and the only question is why it hadn't happened the year before) and the other got a coach the conference CotY award.

From the perspective of the AD it isn't a checkpoint kind of thing where you make a decision that you will start to evaluate after x time. One reason for that is if something unexpected happens, think Skip Prosser at Wake, the AD needs to be ready to make a hire, or at least to have a functional hiring process. So an AD always needs to know what they can likely get if they have to make a new hire. Thus it is more a balancing act where the AD needs to weigh how likely it is making a change will result in a positive impact compared to keeping the coach. If you fire a coach after two years, you will almost certainly have to overpay the next coach either in $/year or buyout and possibly both. As the years go on, the dynamics change and eventually you reach a point where if you don't make a change, you have to give an extension and that adds to the scales. In our case, barring something that allows for a firing for cause, I don't see any chance we make a move after 2 years, and it is unlikely after 3 if there is any kind of positive outlook that could be made. We likely don't have the money it takes for the AD to be confident in landing a significant hire. No real point in making a coaching change after 3 years if all you are likely to get is another coach who hasn't really proven anything. Now that changes if, for example, a donor reaches out and says they will put 50 mil towards bringing in Scott Drew, or whoever your pie in the sky coach of choice would be. In that case it would probably make sense for a change to be made after 2 years. But that balancing act is for the AD to worry about.

 

[AUFC]

It does help us that Coach Key's success means that ADJB does not need to "I've Got My Man" us on this one. If it comes time to part ways with CDS, he's going to fearlessly do it and know his job is safe.

My penultimate memory of TFAD's time at Georgia Tech will always be his desperate "I've Got My Man" sandwiched between the 55-0 drubbing from ND and ensuing 45-0 drubbing from the Gaggers. I'm kind of glad now because no coaching search at the end of 2021 meant that we got Interim Coach Key in 2022 but that was such an ugly situation where TFAD's selfish job security priority screwed our 2022 football season so that he could spend 9 more months on the Flats lighting some candles and summoning some seances in hopes that the Greatest Rebuild in the History of College Football could have a 0.01% chance of coming to fruition.

 

[BuzzBy]

We still have a few years to go before a critical assessment needs to occur. Some how...some way a concerted effort needs to occur to get more butts in seats particularly the student body. I will assume the majority of us grew up watching the 80s and 90s teams and got hooked on the program. I rarely missed a game when I was enrolled and fans were lined up well before game time to get pumped for the game. It was called the Thriller Dome for a reason and you wanted to be part of the lore that went along with it. Now, it appears the arena (no one calls it thrilling anymore) is at best an eighth to a quarter full. I'm not even sure sales are generating enough income to pay for the facility to be open and staffed. Having someone yelling in a mike, playing the same tired music, performing stunts during breaks, sitting in a silly oversized inflatable chair, basic/bland food choices, overpriced beer, etc., etc isn't getting it done. There is also a way undersized American flag that annoys me every time I see it. We can't do better? Its not like a bigger flag is blocking anybody's view. Having old folks like us, wax eloquently about the past and attend games is not going to instill the passion needed to carry forward. And yes, I know a better product on the floor helps attendance, but when was the last time you can recall the arena being at max attendance...not ticket sales, even when we had a decent team. When you have a sub par product, how you market that product can get you through for a while until hopefully the product improves. We don't seem to have any of that working effectively now.

 

[bke1984]

Arguably, we aren’t playing defense the way he wants us to.

Did they play defense in the NBA when he was there? I can’t remember when it stopped

 

[bke1984]

We still have a few years to go before a critical assessment needs to occur. Some how...some way a concerted effort needs to occur to get more butts in seats particularly the student body. I will assume the majority of us grew up watching the 80s and 90s teams and got hooked on the program. I rarely missed a game when I was enrolled and fans were lined up well before game time to get pumped for the game. It was called the Thriller Dome for a reason and you wanted to be part of the lore that went along with it. Now, it appears the arena (no one calls it thrilling anymore) is at best an eighth to a quarter full. I'm not even sure sales are generating enough income to pay for the facility to be open and staffed. Having someone yelling in a mike, playing the same tired music, performing stunts during breaks, sitting in a silly oversized inflatable chair, basic/bland food choices, overpriced beer, etc., etc isn't getting it done. There is also a way undersized American flag that annoys me every time I see it. We can't do better? Its not like a bigger flag is blocking anybody's view. Having old folks like us, wax eloquently about the past and attend games is not going to instill the passion needed to carry forward. And yes, I know a better product on the floor helps attendance, but when was the last time you can recall the arena being at max attendance...not ticket sales, even when we had a decent team. When you have a sub par product, how you market that product can get you through for a while until hopefully the product improves. We don't seem to have any of that working effectively now.

It’s because we are awful. The student section at football games wasn’t much better until last year. Give them something to root for and they’ll come. Put a continuously crappy product on the court and it will continue to be empty.

This team has a LOT of talent…but they’re generally all new aside from Baye and Nate. Even Terry wasn’t playing last year. There was a flash in the first half against Oklahoma where I could see what Damon is trying to do, but it morphed into the same poor defense couple with endless passes around the arc in the second half. Maybe it’ll click sometime later this year and we will get some momentum going into next year. If we are still bad by the end of 25-26 then it’ll be time to panic.

 

[Peacone36]

Doesn’t it take three years to develop a basketball program whose reputation has been in the gutter for decades?

Does it?

Fred Hoiberg did it in one at Iowa State
Pitino did it almost immediately at St Johns right after he won 64 games in three years at Iona. One of which was the Covid year
Andy Kennedy turned Ole Miss around quick, Chris Beard is now doing it as well.
Darian Devries just took over a 9 win team and has victories over Gonzaga and Arizona in year one.
Pat Kelsey has Louisville at 5-3 with victories over that West Virginia team and a win over Indiana after the Cardinals won 25 total games in the last three seasons.

It doesn’t take three years. It certainly doesnt take seven. It takes money and the willingness to hire a person to get the job done. What gets you decades in the gutter? Bargain bin shopping for a coach, hiring guys that have no significant winning history as a coach, thinking your school is morally superior to certain coaches who have made mistakes.

There is a history of bad decision making at the root of this program. Those decisions are compounded by some horrifically timed injuries.

I'm not saying Stoudamire isn’t the guy, he has certainly shown the ability to bring in shiny new toys. That said, watch West Virginia, Louisville and Ole Miss play and tell me those teams don’t play in a way that looks like they have some discipline and grasp on their style/plan. Some teams can look good and lose. We lose by looking like pygmies seeing electricity for the first time.

With Chris Beard, this Georgia Tech team is undefeated. But we won’t ever do that. We go cheap. We go unproven. We go without tournament appearances.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Does it?

Fred Hoiberg did it in one at Iowa State
Pitino did it almost immediately at St Johns right after he won 64 games in three years at Iona. One of which was the Covid year
Andy Kennedy turned Ole Miss around quick, Chris Beard is now doing it as well.
Darian Devries just took over a 9 win team and has victories over Gonzaga and Arizona in year one.
Pat Kelsey has Louisville at 5-3 with victories over that West Virginia team and a win over Indiana after the Cardinals won 25 total games in the last three seasons.

It doesn’t take three years. It certainly doesnt take seven. It takes money and the willingness to hire a person to get the job done. What gets you decades in the gutter? Bargain bin shopping for a coach, hiring guys that have no significant winning history as a coach, thinking your school is morally superior to certain coaches who have made mistakes.

There is a history of bad decision making at the root of this program. Those decisions are compounded by some horrifically timed injuries.

I'm not saying Stoudamire isn’t the guy, he has certainly shown the ability to bring in shiny new toys. That said, watch West Virginia, Louisville and Ole Miss play and tell me those teams don’t play in a way that looks like they have some discipline and grasp on their style/plan. Some teams can look good and lose. We lose by looking like pygmies seeing electricity for the first time.

With Chris Beard, this Georgia Tech team is undefeated. But we won’t ever do that. We go cheap. We go unproven. We go without tournament appearances.

I don’t know. Very few schools that I know of (perhaps you do) combine 30 years of mediocre to poor seasons with high academic standards and a limited budget. That’s not an insignificant ship to turn around.

I tend to align myself with those who see CDS as a winner who will not long tolerate losing. He will either get this ship in order in the next couple of years or he will choose to move on.

 

[iopjacket]

Does it?

Fred Hoiberg did it in one at Iowa State
Pitino did it almost immediately at St Johns right after he won 64 games in three years at Iona. One of which was the Covid year
Andy Kennedy turned Ole Miss around quick, Chris Beard is now doing it as well.
Darian Devries just took over a 9 win team and has victories over Gonzaga and Arizona in year one.
Pat Kelsey has Louisville at 5-3 with victories over that West Virginia team and a win over Indiana after the Cardinals won 25 total games in the last three seasons.

It doesn’t take three years. It certainly doesnt take seven. It takes money and the willingness to hire a person to get the job done. What gets you decades in the gutter? Bargain bin shopping for a coach, hiring guys that have no significant winning history as a coach, thinking your school is morally superior to certain coaches who have made mistakes.

There is a history of bad decision making at the root of this program. Those decisions are compounded by some horrifically timed injuries.

I'm not saying Stoudamire isn’t the guy, he has certainly shown the ability to bring in shiny new toys. That said, watch West Virginia, Louisville and Ole Miss play and tell me those teams don’t play in a way that looks like they have some discipline and grasp on their style/plan. Some teams can look good and lose. We lose by looking like pygmies seeing electricity for the first time.

With Chris Beard, this Georgia Tech team is undefeated. But we won’t ever do that. We go cheap. We go unproven. We go without tournament appearances.

Well said. Stoudamire can recruit. I am not sure he can develop young players into a disciplined focused team, but just like in the past I am going to watch and hope.

 

[AUFC]

I don’t know. Very few schools that I know of (perhaps you do) combine 30 years of mediocre to poor seasons with high academic standards and a limited budget. That’s not an insignificant ship to turn around.

I tend to align myself with those who see CDS as a winner who will not long tolerate losing. He will either get this ship in order in the next couple of years or he will choose to move on.

Just to add a peer institution, Wake Forest's Steve Forbes turned their program around in 2 seasons. It can absolutely be done.

I agree with @Peacone36 here - if you're willing to wait 3 years for a turnaround that may never occur, you're just accepting mediocrity. 180'ing a program in college basketball these days is not an edge case scenario, it's just something good coaches are able to pull off.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Just to add a peer institution, Wake Forest's Steve Forbes turned their program around in 2 seasons. It can absolutely be done.

I agree with @Peacone36 here - if you're willing to wait 3 years for a turnaround that may never occur, you're just accepting mediocrity. 180'ing a program in college basketball these days is not an edge case scenario, it's just something good coaches are able to pull off.

It’s also something that many many more good coaches did not pull off in two years. Those that do pull it off in two years are not just great coaches, they are also extremely lucky in having all the pieces fall into place in just the perfect way.

I may be quibbling with the facts, and may be proven wrong, but I don’t believe all circumstances are equal and or that it is therefore possible to establish a standard fixed two year time frame for all programs.

CDS will give us a pretty good indication this year of whether he is making progress or if he’s ready to throw in the towel.

 

[Ramble1885]

if this season is similar to last season and we finish 4-5 games below .500 I won't panic... yet.

If we fall apart and have a Kenny Payne Louisville type season, we can panic.

 

[Peacone36]

It’s also something that many many more good coaches did not pull off in two years. Those that do pull it off in two years are not just great coaches, they are also extremely lucky in having all the pieces fall into place in just the perfect way.

I may be quibbling with the facts, and may be proven wrong, but I don’t believe all circumstances are equal and or that it is therefore possible to establish a standard fixed two year time frame for all programs.

CDS will give us a pretty good indication this year of whether he is making progress or if he’s ready to throw in the towel.

I agree with what you are saying. Yes the coaches I mentioned above are very talented and not all programs are created equal.

But you can’t expect a higher ceiling when you hire Brian Gregory, a coach Dayton was happy to see leave. You can’t expect a higher ceiling when you hire Josh Pastner, a coach Memphis was happy to see leave. Now, we expect to set a higher ceiling with a guy who did an admirable job at a tough school and was an AC in a league whose game is far different than the one he is about to coach.

You probably could have had Kelsey four years ago. You could have possibly had Darian DeVries when you made this current hire after DeVries recorded his third consecutive season of at least 25 victories. Anthony Grant, Mike Rhoades, Porter Moser, Dennis Gates, all proven winners. Would they all say yes? Doubtful but for the love of Pete, I gotta think one these six would have said yes and Gates was so perfect for the gig it makes me emotional.

I’m fine with giving CDS his four years, the 2025 class is LOADED and I’m excited for that. However, I have not seen a damn thing that makes me think CDS can coach them to be consistently successful on the scoreboard. I don’t blame CDS for poor player decisions and missed open shots, but I do question him when I see terrible defense and standing around on offense.

 

[MWBATL]

I have been concerned that our defense seems like NBA defense…always and only man-to-man. In college, you don’t have the caliber of 3 point shooters you see in the NBA.
I’m not sure if CDS is deliberately coaching guys NBA technique to get them ready for pros. and maybe that’s a big piece of his recruiting pitch. And maybe that works to bring in top recruits. I just honestly wonder if that equates to winning in college BB these days. Maybe he’s right, I dunno.
It’s why I asked the initial question.

 

[Techwood Relict]

Just for the sake of discussion, what are the thoughts on the support staff? CDS appears to have positively affected recruiting. Is there a vein of thought that the process vision is good but implementation is still not smooth?
Basketball is such a year to year change for players and, to be obvious, a rhythm game where the pieces have to work well together. It took us some time last year to find that rhythm, and again this year.
I think our fan base is a bit crisp around the edges because of 7 years of CJP doing the same thing, failing early, better later. It would do all our collective fans some good if we could unbox a nice record before Xmas one of these years.

 

[cpf2001]

If we get the budget to start shopping for top proven coaches i have no issues with a short evaluation period.

But at our current prices 2 years feels too low, if the next candidate is going to have at least as many question marks, given at least very promising recruiting.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I agree with what you are saying. Yes the coaches I mentioned above are very talented and not all programs are created equal.

But you can’t expect a higher ceiling when you hire Brian Gregory, a coach Dayton was happy to see leave. You can’t expect a higher ceiling when you hire Josh Pastner, a coach Memphis was happy to see leave. Now, we expect to set a higher ceiling with a guy who did an admirable job at a tough school and was an AC in a league whose game is far different than the one he is about to coach.

You probably could have had Kelsey four years ago. You could have possibly had Darian DeVries when you made this current hire after DeVries recorded his third consecutive season of at least 25 victories. Anthony Grant, Mike Rhoades, Porter Moser, Dennis Gates, all proven winners. Would they all say yes? Doubtful but for the love of Pete, I gotta think one these six would have said yes and Gates was so perfect for the gig it makes me emotional.

I’m fine with giving CDS his four years, the 2025 class is LOADED and I’m excited for that. However, I have not seen a damn thing that makes me think CDS can coach them to be consistently successful on the scoreboard. I don’t blame CDS for poor player decisions and missed open shots, but I do question him when I see terrible defense and standing around on offense.

Agree with 99% of this. I think we only differ in how close we are to doomsday.

 

[YlJacket]

We definitely took a different path with CDS than we did with Gregory or Pastner. Much higher ceiling and floor. He has the gravitas to recruit much higher level talent than we have been able to sniff the last 10 years but his coaching experience is primarily NBA and particularly Boston Celtics which has a much different approach than most mid to upper middle college teams. And IMHO that is generally the root of the issues we are seeing. The Celtics in particular are a focused on spacing and beating your man in space with the offense coming off defensive rotations caused by that. Great concept when you have 2 max players in Tatum and Brown. Generally same idea on the defensive end where experience athletic players can switch pretty much everything but still keep players in front of them.

FWIW I am fine with the path we took and the hire. And don't think we are anywhere near doomsday but do want to see a progression to putting more college level structure in our game - more patterned ball movement on offense beyond just the middle ball screen and a more ready rotations on D when our guys get beat (though I do agree with CDS that a chunk of our D issues are effort). This is a natural progression. In this way to me this is akin to the young coach who is going to grow into the role. Something everyone always seems to want until you have to go through making the sausage.

I fully expect he has a legit 4 year leash and still believe we will be happy at the end of that break in period. But also recognize things would be a whole lot easier without some of the regressions this year.

 

[AUFC]

I have been concerned that our defense seems like NBA defense…always and only man-to-man. In college, you don’t have the caliber of 3 point shooters you see in the NBA.
I’m not sure if CDS is deliberately coaching guys NBA technique to get them ready for pros. and maybe that’s a big piece of his recruiting pitch. And maybe that works to bring in top recruits. I just honestly wonder if that equates to winning in college BB these days. Maybe he’s right, I dunno.
It’s why I asked the initial question.

This is, of course, true, but it's a hell of a lot better than when Jim Boeheim's teams were in their hay day. And the three point line got moved back, to boot. Every kid wants to be Steph Curry these days and they are practicing like it in their driveways or at the local park. If you play a lot of zone in college basketball in 2024, doesn't matter whether you're facing Campbell or Kentucky, you're going to get boatraced. It has its place and time, but you can't win consistently playing it for 40 minutes.

 

[spdrama]

Does it?

Fred Hoiberg did it in one at Iowa State
Pitino did it almost immediately at St Johns right after he won 64 games in three years at Iona. One of which was the Covid year
Andy Kennedy turned Ole Miss around quick, Chris Beard is now doing it as well.
Darian Devries just took over a 9 win team and has victories over Gonzaga and Arizona in year one.
Pat Kelsey has Louisville at 5-3 with victories over that West Virginia team and a win over Indiana after the Cardinals won 25 total games in the last three seasons.

It doesn’t take three years. It certainly doesnt take seven. It takes money and the willingness to hire a person to get the job done. What gets you decades in the gutter? Bargain bin shopping for a coach, hiring guys that have no significant winning history as a coach, thinking your school is morally superior to certain coaches who have made mistakes.

There is a history of bad decision making at the root of this program. Those decisions are compounded by some horrifically timed injuries.

I'm not saying Stoudamire isn’t the guy, he has certainly shown the ability to bring in shiny new toys. That said, watch West Virginia, Louisville and Ole Miss play and tell me those teams don’t play in a way that looks like they have some discipline and grasp on their style/plan. Some teams can look good and lose. We lose by looking like pygmies seeing electricity for the first time.

With Chris Beard, this Georgia Tech team is undefeated. But we won’t ever do that. We go cheap. We go unproven. We go without tournament appearances.

Hoiberg did it not once, but twice at Iowa State, returning a second time to what he had already built once as a powerhouse. No surprise that he brought a quick fix But he is a legacy coach with deep roots into midwest connections. Tech has no legacy coach for basketball to immediately impact & accomplish what Hoiberg did so quickly. He wasn’t going to Atlanta to even attempt that kind of success. Brent Key is on the verge of that kind of accomplishment here in football. Doesn’t exist in GT MBB.

St John’s, Louisville, West Virginia & even Ole Miss have long been great basketball programs that a good coach can quickly fix what l a bad coach quickly screwed up. Those type of programs never lie dormant for as long as Tech has been. Hewitt had it easy following Cremins. The Hewitt ending was the optimum time to call in a top winning college coach to fix and rejuvenate the program. Way too late now for the quick fix.

Those coaches mentioned know Tech isn’t an overnight fix. $ isn’t going to do the trick any more. Even if it incudes enough to pay off an ex-fiancé to recant felony assault/strangulation charges. At his age, why would Pitino come to attempt a GT rebuild? The idea that Hoiberg, Beard, Kelsey, Devries or even Pitino could put together a tourney bound GT team in 2 years makes for good discussion & debate. Fantasy to me. To think any of them could take today’s team to the tourney, with or without injuries, is also fantasy. This team would be undefeated under Chris Beard? Written with a straight face?

I’m so ancient I will never forget watching Howard Cosell’s Monday Night football faux pas on Alvin Garrett, so I’ll assume the “pygmies” reference was likewise an innocent poor attempt at humor and leave it at that.

 

[Peacone36]

Hoiberg did it not once, but twice at Iowa State, returning a second time to what he had already built once as a powerhouse. No surprise that he brought a quick fix But he is a legacy coach with deep roots into midwest connections. Tech has no legacy coach for basketball to immediately impact & accomplish what Hoiberg did so quickly. He wasn’t going to Atlanta to even attempt that kind of success. Brent Key is on the verge of that kind of accomplishment here in football. Doesn’t exist in GT MBB.

St John’s, Louisville, West Virginia & even Ole Miss have long been great basketball programs that a good coach can quickly fix what l a bad coach quickly screwed up. Those type of programs never lie dormant for as long as Tech has been. Hewitt had it easy following Cremins. The Hewitt ending was the optimum time to call in a top winning college coach to fix and rejuvenate the program. Way too late now for the quick fix.

Those coaches mentioned know Tech isn’t an overnight fix. $ isn’t going to do the trick any more. Even if it incudes enough to pay off an ex-fiancé to recant felony assault/strangulation charges. At his age, why would Pitino come to attempt a GT rebuild? The idea that Hoiberg, Beard, Kelsey, Devries or even Pitino could put together a tourney bound GT team in 2 years makes for good discussion & debate. Fantasy to me. To think any of them could take today’s team to the tourney, with or without injuries, is also fantasy. This team would be undefeated under Chris Beard? Written with a straight face?

I’m so ancient I will never forget watching Howard Cosell’s Monday Night football faux pas on Alvin Garrett, so I’ll assume the “pygmies” reference was likewise an innocent poor attempt at humor and leave it at that.

It was meant in the truest sense of who those people are. My sociology professor in college based his entire curriculum around them. Their seclusion, one of the last remaining tribes that basically resists what we would consider modern conveniences. It was not a derogatory comment, simply a reference of their blissful ignorance (again truest sense) of something they have/had zero experience with.