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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 885750" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>[USER=1618]@billga99[/USER] if this team loses to WCU, it'll be very hard to win 5 games. That's our "easy" team on the schedule. That would be an epic disaster. We don't have wiggle room in one of the toughest schedules in the nation. </p><p></p><p>This isn't my forecast. I am pulling numbers from ESPN and Bovada here. If you believe that we'll get 5 wins this year, you could make good money in Vegas. You could make even better money betting on us to make a bowl game. Outside perception is that it would be very hard for Collins to hit 6 wins. </p><p></p><p>I doubt that 5 wins would be enough--he'd need other things in his favor--an amazing recruiting class, a signature win, other things in his favor. If he hits 5 wins, you also need to believe it's his new floor and not his ceiling. Winning 5 games might be enough for people to think about it for a while, especially if we end the season ahead on points (we win big in our wins and barely lose in our losses). </p><p></p><p>I can get to last year's FEI numbers, but for right now I'll go with the ESPN forecast for 2022. I'm not saying that I have any special belief in this rating--I don't--but it's a little less biased in favor of us than I am. Based on their projections, we're the #66 team in the country next year, which is a step up. Last year, we were #82. One piece of good news is that Notre Dame is off the schedule, and UCF and Ole Miss shouldn't be as good as Notre Dame was. </p><p></p><p>Right now, we should be favored against Western Carolina and Duke. VT would have us favored on neutral turf, but it's in Blacksburg--so closer to a toss-up. </p><p></p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>Date</td><td>Opponent</td><td>Location</td><td>ESPN FPI</td><td>FPI Rank</td><td>Conference</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">5-Sep</p> </td><td>Clemson</td><td>The Benz</td><td><p style="text-align: right">22.8</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">10-Sep</p> </td><td>Western Carolina</td><td>Home</td><td><p style="text-align: right">unranked</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">unranked</p> </td><td>Southern</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">17-Sep</p> </td><td>Ole Miss</td><td>Home</td><td><p style="text-align: right">12.4</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">17</p> </td><td>SEC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">24-Sep</p> </td><td>UCF</td><td>Away</td><td><p style="text-align: right">8.1</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">34</p> </td><td>AAC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">1-Oct</p> </td><td>Pitt</td><td>Away</td><td><p style="text-align: right">11.1</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">20</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">8-Oct</p> </td><td>Duke</td><td>Home</td><td><p style="text-align: right">-7.6</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">101</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">20-Oct</p> </td><td>UVA</td><td>Home</td><td><p style="text-align: right">2.2</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">55</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">29-Oct</p> </td><td>FSU</td><td>Away</td><td><p style="text-align: right">8.5</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">33</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">5-Nov</p> </td><td>VT</td><td>Away</td><td><p style="text-align: right">-1.5</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">73</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">12-Nov</p> </td><td>Miami</td><td>Home</td><td><p style="text-align: right">14.5</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">9</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">19-Nov</p> </td><td>UNC</td><td>Away</td><td><p style="text-align: right">11.1</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">19</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">26-Nov</p> </td><td>UGA</td><td>Away</td><td><p style="text-align: right">27.9</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">3</p> </td><td>SEC</td></tr></table><p></p><p>Here is the same table sorted by rank. To get to 6 wins on neutral fields, we either need to be better than FSU (basically be a borderline top 30 team) or get 3 to 4 upsets (depending on whether VT away is an "upset")</p><p></p><p>I'm not a gambler, but Bovada has our wins over/under at 3.5 wins for 2022. </p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>Date</td><td>Opponent</td><td>Location</td><td>ESPN FPI</td><td>FPI Rank</td><td>Conference</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">26-Nov</p> </td><td>UGA</td><td>Away</td><td><p style="text-align: right">27.9</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">3</p> </td><td>SEC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">5-Sep</p> </td><td>Clemson</td><td>The Benz</td><td><p style="text-align: right">22.8</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">12-Nov</p> </td><td>Miami</td><td>Home</td><td><p style="text-align: right">14.5</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">9</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">17-Sep</p> </td><td>Ole Miss</td><td>Home</td><td><p style="text-align: right">12.4</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">17</p> </td><td>SEC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">19-Nov</p> </td><td>UNC</td><td>Away</td><td><p style="text-align: right">11.1</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">19</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">1-Oct</p> </td><td>Pitt</td><td>Away</td><td><p style="text-align: right">11.1</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">20</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">29-Oct</p> </td><td>FSU</td><td>Away</td><td><p style="text-align: right">8.5</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">33</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">24-Sep</p> </td><td>UCF</td><td>Away</td><td><p style="text-align: right">8.1</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">34</p> </td><td>AAC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">20-Oct</p> </td><td>UVA</td><td>Home</td><td><p style="text-align: right">2.2</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">55</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">5-Nov</p> </td><td>VT</td><td>Away</td><td><p style="text-align: right">-1.5</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">73</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">8-Oct</p> </td><td>Duke</td><td>Home</td><td><p style="text-align: right">-7.6</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">101</p> </td><td>ACC</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">10-Sep</p> </td><td>Western Carolina</td><td>Home</td><td><p style="text-align: right">unranked</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">unranked</p> </td><td>Southern</td></tr></table></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 885750, member: 282"] [USER=1618]@billga99[/USER] if this team loses to WCU, it'll be very hard to win 5 games. That's our "easy" team on the schedule. That would be an epic disaster. We don't have wiggle room in one of the toughest schedules in the nation. This isn't my forecast. I am pulling numbers from ESPN and Bovada here. If you believe that we'll get 5 wins this year, you could make good money in Vegas. You could make even better money betting on us to make a bowl game. Outside perception is that it would be very hard for Collins to hit 6 wins. I doubt that 5 wins would be enough--he'd need other things in his favor--an amazing recruiting class, a signature win, other things in his favor. If he hits 5 wins, you also need to believe it's his new floor and not his ceiling. Winning 5 games might be enough for people to think about it for a while, especially if we end the season ahead on points (we win big in our wins and barely lose in our losses). I can get to last year's FEI numbers, but for right now I'll go with the ESPN forecast for 2022. I'm not saying that I have any special belief in this rating--I don't--but it's a little less biased in favor of us than I am. Based on their projections, we're the #66 team in the country next year, which is a step up. Last year, we were #82. One piece of good news is that Notre Dame is off the schedule, and UCF and Ole Miss shouldn't be as good as Notre Dame was. Right now, we should be favored against Western Carolina and Duke. VT would have us favored on neutral turf, but it's in Blacksburg--so closer to a toss-up. [TABLE] [TR] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Opponent[/TD] [TD]Location[/TD] [TD]ESPN FPI[/TD] [TD]FPI Rank[/TD] [TD]Conference[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]5-Sep[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Clemson[/TD] [TD]The Benz[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]22.8[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]4[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]10-Sep[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Western Carolina[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]unranked[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]unranked[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Southern[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]17-Sep[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Ole Miss[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]12.4[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]17[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]SEC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]24-Sep[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]UCF[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]8.1[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]34[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]AAC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]1-Oct[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Pitt[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]11.1[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]20[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]8-Oct[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Duke[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]-7.6[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]101[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]20-Oct[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]UVA[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]2.2[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]55[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]29-Oct[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]FSU[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]8.5[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]33[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]5-Nov[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]VT[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]-1.5[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]73[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]12-Nov[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Miami[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]14.5[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]9[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]19-Nov[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]UNC[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]11.1[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]19[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]26-Nov[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]UGA[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]27.9[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]3[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]SEC[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Here is the same table sorted by rank. To get to 6 wins on neutral fields, we either need to be better than FSU (basically be a borderline top 30 team) or get 3 to 4 upsets (depending on whether VT away is an "upset") I'm not a gambler, but Bovada has our wins over/under at 3.5 wins for 2022. [TABLE] [TR] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Opponent[/TD] [TD]Location[/TD] [TD]ESPN FPI[/TD] [TD]FPI Rank[/TD] [TD]Conference[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]26-Nov[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]UGA[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]27.9[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]3[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]SEC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]5-Sep[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Clemson[/TD] [TD]The Benz[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]22.8[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]4[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]12-Nov[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Miami[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]14.5[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]9[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]17-Sep[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Ole Miss[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]12.4[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]17[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]SEC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]19-Nov[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]UNC[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]11.1[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]19[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]1-Oct[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Pitt[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]11.1[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]20[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]29-Oct[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]FSU[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]8.5[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]33[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]24-Sep[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]UCF[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]8.1[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]34[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]AAC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]20-Oct[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]UVA[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]2.2[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]55[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]5-Nov[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]VT[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]-1.5[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]73[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]8-Oct[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Duke[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]-7.6[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]101[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]10-Sep[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Western Carolina[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]unranked[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]unranked[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Southern[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/QUOTE]
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