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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 879481" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>I'm just a guy on the street, but I think there are three factors</p><p>1. revenue</p><p>2. eyeballs (how many viewers)</p><p>3. wins</p><p></p><p>If there really is a "super league", then the arms race well under way, and the teams that would go in today aren't the teams who might make the cut in five years. </p><p></p><p>If you're purely a football fan, you might have missed that <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/soccer-s-super-league-fail-nearly-destroyed-sport-n1264642/" target="_blank">Europe's biggest and richest soccer teams tried to do the same thing with just 12 teams</a>. It blew up badly from fan backlash. That doesn't mean our NCAA teams aren't thinking they can succeed where those teams failed; I think they're copying plans and making edits. </p><p></p><p>This is my first cut at guessing who the Tier 1 schools would be. I think anyone can look and say "Alabama is in". Most people can look and also say "Ohio State, Georgia, LSU". Then you get to Clemson and Notre Dame--Clemson because of wins and fans and Notre Dame because of money and fans. It gets kind of tricky to fill in the top 10 and say who is in and who is out, but Penn State and Oklahoma look pretty good as of today.</p><p></p><p>The top 25 in revenues are</p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Texas</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">UGA</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Michigan</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Ohio State</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Alabama</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Oklahoma</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Penn State</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Notre Dame</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Auburn</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Nebraska</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">LSU</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Florida</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Washington</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Tennessee</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Wisconsin</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Iowa</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Texas A&M</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Oregon</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Florida State</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Arkansas</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">South Carolina</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Michigan State</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Illinois</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Clemson</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Utah</li> </ol><p>For wins:</p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Alabama</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Ohio State</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Clemson</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Oklahoma</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Georgia</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Oregon</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Notre Dame</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Wisconsin</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">LSU</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Oklahoma State</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Texas A&M</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">FSU (Surprise! They were great at the start of the decade)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Michigan State</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Penn State</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Michigan</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Iowa</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Stanford (Surprise #2, they were good at the start of the decade)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Florida</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Washington</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Utah</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Baylor</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Southern Cal</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Louisville</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Kansas State</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Auburn</li> </ol><p>Texas--as anemic as they've been for winning, is gonna be in because of revenues and fanbase. If you're in both top 20 in wins AND top 20 in revenue, you're gonna be in, unless you're one of those teams who've been in serious decline the past few years (FSU, Stanford).</p><p></p><p>Notre Dame is going to be in with no problem. I think Clemson is in, but revenues are a worry.</p><p></p><p>For teams like Florida and Auburn and Iowa, it depends on how you draw the lines, but Iowa looks really safe.</p><p></p><p>Nebraska needs to figure out how to win.</p><p></p><p>We are way, way, way on the outside right now. For revenue, we're #63. For wins, I don't know where we are now.</p><p></p><p>See <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/where-does-your-school-rank-among-richest-and-poorest-power-5-college-football-programs-new-revenue-figures-for-all-65/ar-AALuIbn" target="_blank">https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/where-does-your-school-rank-among-richest-and-poorest-power-5-college-football-programs-new-revenue-figures-for-all-65/ar-AALuIbn</a>.</p><p></p><p>For viewership, here's one set of numbers: <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/748033/college-football-tv-ratings/#:~:text=The%20NCAA%20college%20football%20semifinal%20on%20January%201%2C,season%2C%20with%209.6%20and%20approximately%2019%20million%20viewers" target="_blank">https://www.statista.com/statistics/748033/college-football-tv-ratings/#:~:text=The NCAA college football semifinal on January 1,,season, with 9.6 and approximately 19 million viewers</a>.</p><p></p><p>10 winningest teams over the last decade: <a href="https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/College-football-rankings-Top-25-winningest-programs-in-past-10-years-188246525/#188246525_1" target="_blank">https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/College-football-rankings-Top-25-winningest-programs-in-past-10-years-188246525/#188246525_1</a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 879481, member: 282"] I'm just a guy on the street, but I think there are three factors 1. revenue 2. eyeballs (how many viewers) 3. wins If there really is a "super league", then the arms race well under way, and the teams that would go in today aren't the teams who might make the cut in five years. If you're purely a football fan, you might have missed that [URL='https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/soccer-s-super-league-fail-nearly-destroyed-sport-n1264642/']Europe's biggest and richest soccer teams tried to do the same thing with just 12 teams[/URL]. It blew up badly from fan backlash. That doesn't mean our NCAA teams aren't thinking they can succeed where those teams failed; I think they're copying plans and making edits. This is my first cut at guessing who the Tier 1 schools would be. I think anyone can look and say "Alabama is in". Most people can look and also say "Ohio State, Georgia, LSU". Then you get to Clemson and Notre Dame--Clemson because of wins and fans and Notre Dame because of money and fans. It gets kind of tricky to fill in the top 10 and say who is in and who is out, but Penn State and Oklahoma look pretty good as of today. The top 25 in revenues are [LIST=1] [*]Texas [*]UGA [*]Michigan [*]Ohio State [*]Alabama [*]Oklahoma [*]Penn State [*]Notre Dame [*]Auburn [*]Nebraska [*]LSU [*]Florida [*]Washington [*]Tennessee [*]Wisconsin [*]Iowa [*]Texas A&M [*]Oregon [*]Florida State [*]Arkansas [*]South Carolina [*]Michigan State [*]Illinois [*]Clemson [*]Utah [/LIST] For wins: [LIST=1] [*]Alabama [*]Ohio State [*]Clemson [*]Oklahoma [*]Georgia [*]Oregon [*]Notre Dame [*]Wisconsin [*]LSU [*]Oklahoma State [*]Texas A&M [*]FSU (Surprise! They were great at the start of the decade) [*]Michigan State [*]Penn State [*]Michigan [*]Iowa [*]Stanford (Surprise #2, they were good at the start of the decade) [*]Florida [*]Washington [*]Utah [*]Baylor [*]Southern Cal [*]Louisville [*]Kansas State [*]Auburn [/LIST] Texas--as anemic as they've been for winning, is gonna be in because of revenues and fanbase. If you're in both top 20 in wins AND top 20 in revenue, you're gonna be in, unless you're one of those teams who've been in serious decline the past few years (FSU, Stanford). Notre Dame is going to be in with no problem. I think Clemson is in, but revenues are a worry. For teams like Florida and Auburn and Iowa, it depends on how you draw the lines, but Iowa looks really safe. Nebraska needs to figure out how to win. We are way, way, way on the outside right now. For revenue, we're #63. For wins, I don't know where we are now. See [URL]https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/where-does-your-school-rank-among-richest-and-poorest-power-5-college-football-programs-new-revenue-figures-for-all-65/ar-AALuIbn[/URL]. For viewership, here's one set of numbers: [URL='https://www.statista.com/statistics/748033/college-football-tv-ratings/#:~:text=The%20NCAA%20college%20football%20semifinal%20on%20January%201%2C,season%2C%20with%209.6%20and%20approximately%2019%20million%20viewers']https://www.statista.com/statistics/748033/college-football-tv-ratings/#:~:text=The NCAA college football semifinal on January 1,,season, with 9.6 and approximately 19 million viewers[/URL]. 10 winningest teams over the last decade: [URL]https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/College-football-rankings-Top-25-winningest-programs-in-past-10-years-188246525/#188246525_1[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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