Half Time Review - Need Better Pitching

[GTNavyNuke]

Well, we're halfway through the season so I wanted to look at where we are. I think we are going to have to get a lot better just to make the NCAAs. Using the NCAA stats as an overview http://stats.ncaa.org/team/255.0/12560 , I arbitrarily give the following grades:

• Hitting: A. 28th batting average, 5th slugging percentage. I won't dwell on how we maul good teams like Auburn or consistently score on Clemson.
• Pitching: F. 212th in ERA. Fricking 5.52 team ERA after a bad 4.73 2016 team ERA. Embarrassing.
  • We have the recruited talent and should be much much better.
  • GT pitching is to the baseball program as GT football defense is to the football program. I'm sure the players and those close to the program are even more disappointed than I am. Regardless, we are getting worse.
  • Injuries are a valid excuse for a year, but not multiple years like the poor team performance has been.
  • More later.
• Fielding: D. 124th in fielding percentage and 85th in double plays per game.
  • I really miss Justus (SS), Pabst (C) and English (1B) fielding and throwing out players. Craport is worse with a .903 fielding percentage versus .917 last year (both years are bad, just worse this year).
  • The lack of double plays this year isn't because our pitchers don't have plenty of lead off walks, HBPs or hits. It's because we aren't turning the plays.
  • The lack of fielding like last year really hurts the pitching ERA too. Rather than get out of an inning we give up to big run innings.

Pitching by current ERA & IP:

• Ryan 1.73, 26.0 IP. Solid and as consistent as we have. This year's Gorst.
• Shadday 2.25, 24.0 IP. Coming on.
• Hughes 4.88, 24.0 IP - Disappointment at ability to throw strikes. Seems to be getting worse.
• Ben S 5.31, 20.1. Not consistent. Can be good and seems to be getting better.
• Datoc 5.41, 26.1 IP. Not consistent. But I think he has more potential and is getting better.
• Curry 5.55, 35.2 IP. Most IP of anyone. Will get better but has been awful at times. We have no choice but to start him. Especially for next year's pitching.

Fewer innings ..... less likely for 2nd half impact.

• Parr 3.12, 8.2 IP. Hurt now.
• Dulaney 3.18, 5.2 IP. Hurt now?
• Carpenter 3.55, 12.2 IP. Good in spots.
• Archer 5.19, 8.2 IP. Had a good inning or two.
• Winborne 6.23, 17.1 IP. Good in stretches.
• Combs 7.71, 7.0 IP. Don't expect much more this year.
• Lee 8.22, 15.1 IP. Best shot to jump up in pitching after Auburn.
• Gibson 12.66, 10.2 IP. Not much use lately.
• King 27.00, 1.2 IP. Probably done GT pitching. Tremendous disappointment for all.
• Gooden 37.80, 1.2 IP. Doesn't throw strikes. Tremendous disappointment for all.
• Wilhite 81.00, .1 IP. Don't expect much more this year.
• English 0, 0.0 IP. Damn I wish he were pitching. I'm sure he does too.

 

[MWBATL]

To be honest, I think we have been spoiled by some excellent defense over the years on the Flats. The ratings for this team for Fielding should be a C in my book. We are simply....average this year. Look at unearned runs allowed and we"re no worse than most ACC teams.

Hitting....I agree, sort of. The one downside is our inability to execute small ball. We are terrible at bunting, hit and running, and we strike out in situations where we need to at least advance base runners one base.

Pitching....obviously I agree. My concern is I suspect we have messed up some of these guys. Explain to me how Golden can go from a HS phenom to not being able to throw strikes?? Makes no sense. Somebody messed this kid's delivery up bad.

 

[65Jacket]

I believe the injuries to the pitching staff are worse this year than last year. We have no Gold or Gorst this year, they are the reason last year had better pitching stats. Hughes is still getting over his surgery, but Gooden is a mystery. However, Gooden was alot better on Sunday, and I hope he will get back on track. I don't see how you can blame the Coach for the injuries. Hughes and English came to GT with problems and would probably not be here if not for those problems.

 

[senoiajacket]

Well, we're halfway through the season so I wanted to look at where we are. I think we are going to have to get a lot better just to make the NCAAs. Using the NCAA stats as an overview http://stats.ncaa.org/team/255.0/12560 , I arbitrarily give the following grades:

• Hitting: A. 28th batting average, 5th slugging percentage. I won't dwell on how we maul good teams like Auburn or consistently score on Clemson.
• Pitching: F. 212th in ERA. Fricking 5.52 team ERA after a bad 4.73 2016 team ERA. Embarrassing.
  • We have the recruited talent and should be much much better.
  • GT pitching is to the baseball program as GT football defense is to the football program. I'm sure the players and those close to the program are even more disappointed than I am. Regardless, we are getting worse.
  • Injuries are a valid excuse for a year, but not multiple years like the poor team performance has been.
  • More later.
• Fielding: D. 124th in fielding percentage and 85th in double plays per game.
  • I really miss Justus (SS), Pabst (C) and English (1B) fielding and throwing out players. Craport is worse with a .903 fielding percentage versus .917 last year (both years are bad, just worse this year).
  • The lack of double plays this year isn't because our pitchers don't have plenty of lead off walks, HBPs or hits. It's because we aren't turning the plays.
  • The lack of fielding like last year really hurts the pitching ERA too. Rather than get out of an inning we give up to big run innings.

Pitching by current ERA & IP:

• Ryan 1.73, 26.0 IP. Solid and as consistent as we have. This year's Gorst.
• Shadday 2.25, 24.0 IP. Coming on.
• Hughes 4.88, 24.0 IP - Disappointment at ability to throw strikes. Seems to be getting worse.
• Ben S 5.31, 20.1. Not consistent. Can be good and seems to be getting better.
• Datoc 5.41, 26.1 IP. Not consistent. But I think he has more potential and is getting better.
• Curry 5.55, 35.2 IP. Most IP of anyone. Will get better but has been awful at times. We have no choice but to start him. Especially for next year's pitching.

Fewer innings ..... less likely for 2nd half impact.

• Parr 3.12, 8.2 IP. Hurt now.
• Dulaney 3.18, 5.2 IP. Hurt now?
• Carpenter 3.55, 12.2 IP. Good in spots.
• Archer 5.19, 8.2 IP. Had a good inning or two.
• Winborne 6.23, 17.1 IP. Good in stretches.
• Combs 7.71, 7.0 IP. Don't expect much more this year.
• Lee 8.22, 15.1 IP. Best shot to jump up in pitching after Auburn.
• Gibson 12.66, 10.2 IP. Not much use lately.
• King 27.00, 1.2 IP. Probably done GT pitching. Tremendous disappointment for all.
• Gooden 37.80, 1.2 IP. Doesn't throw strikes. Tremendous disappointment for all.
• Wilhite 81.00, .1 IP. Don't expect much more this year.
• English 0, 0.0 IP. Damn I wish he were pitching. I'm sure he does too.

Simply put, we are who we thought we were. We all said pitching would define our season, one way or the other, and it has. Hoping that something will change (for the good), but not expecting it.

 

[FredJacket]

I believe the injuries to the pitching staff are worse this year than last year. We have no Gold or Gorst this year, they are the reason last year had better pitching stats. Hughes is still getting over his surgery, but Gooden is a mystery. However, Gooden was alot better on Sunday, and I hope he will get back on track. I don't see how you can blame the Coach for the injuries. Hughes and English came to GT with problems and would probably not be here if not for those problems.

I try very hard to NOT comment on anything related to the continuum of recruiting and developing players/pitchers. I feel I am not qualified or in a position to make any judgments on that stuff from up here in Virginia. So... don't interpret my questions as any more than just questions to anyone who can shed light about the process.

If we accept that we've recruited players that are not 100% healthy (pitchers specifically)... isn't that a concern? I suppose each situation is handled case-by-case and you make your best judgement. However, who is making that call? Are the coaches equipped to make a "good" risk assessment on a player known to have physical issues? Do we have medical (baseball focused) 'experts' involved in the process to help with that assessment?

We're in the same position as the MLB club looking to draft the player. Is the player going to be able to contribute... and grow/improve over time OR will he continue to struggle health-wise? Is this an area where Tech is not getting it right?

Most of the posts on this, generally.... look at our pitching injuries as something totally out of our control OR in some cases, induced by our approach in coaching. Is the problem really a flaw in recruiting as well? Probably... all of those things depending on individual cases.

 

[FredJacket]

Well, we're halfway through the season so I wanted to look at where we are. I think we are going to have to get a lot better just to make the NCAAs. Using the NCAA stats as an overview http://stats.ncaa.org/team/255.0/12560 , I arbitrarily give the following grades:

• Hitting: A. 28th batting average, 5th slugging percentage. I won't dwell on how we maul good teams like Auburn or consistently score on Clemson.
• Pitching: F. 212th in ERA. Fricking 5.52 team ERA after a bad 4.73 2016 team ERA. Embarrassing.
  • We have the recruited talent and should be much much better.
  • GT pitching is to the baseball program as GT football defense is to the football program. I'm sure the players and those close to the program are even more disappointed than I am. Regardless, we are getting worse.
  • Injuries are a valid excuse for a year, but not multiple years like the poor team performance has been.
  • More later.
• Fielding: D. 124th in fielding percentage and 85th in double plays per game.
  • I really miss Justus (SS), Pabst (C) and English (1B) fielding and throwing out players. Craport is worse with a .903 fielding percentage versus .917 last year (both years are bad, just worse this year).
  • The lack of double plays this year isn't because our pitchers don't have plenty of lead off walks, HBPs or hits. It's because we aren't turning the plays.
  • The lack of fielding like last year really hurts the pitching ERA too. Rather than get out of an inning we give up to big run innings.

Pitching by current ERA & IP:

• Ryan 1.73, 26.0 IP. Solid and as consistent as we have. This year's Gorst.
• Shadday 2.25, 24.0 IP. Coming on.
• Hughes 4.88, 24.0 IP - Disappointment at ability to throw strikes. Seems to be getting worse.
• Ben S 5.31, 20.1. Not consistent. Can be good and seems to be getting better.
• Datoc 5.41, 26.1 IP. Not consistent. But I think he has more potential and is getting better.
• Curry 5.55, 35.2 IP. Most IP of anyone. Will get better but has been awful at times. We have no choice but to start him. Especially for next year's pitching.

Fewer innings ..... less likely for 2nd half impact.

• Parr 3.12, 8.2 IP. Hurt now.
• Dulaney 3.18, 5.2 IP. Hurt now?
• Carpenter 3.55, 12.2 IP. Good in spots.
• Archer 5.19, 8.2 IP. Had a good inning or two.
• Winborne 6.23, 17.1 IP. Good in stretches.
• Combs 7.71, 7.0 IP. Don't expect much more this year.
• Lee 8.22, 15.1 IP. Best shot to jump up in pitching after Auburn.
• Gibson 12.66, 10.2 IP. Not much use lately.
• King 27.00, 1.2 IP. Probably done GT pitching. Tremendous disappointment for all.
• Gooden 37.80, 1.2 IP. Doesn't throw strikes. Tremendous disappointment for all.
• Wilhite 81.00, .1 IP. Don't expect much more this year.
• English 0, 0.0 IP. Damn I wish he were pitching. I'm sure he does too.

Cannot argue with any of this. You are right about the fielding issues. It goes beyond the fielding %. There are some plays where errors are not recorded...but better defensive plays or decisions keep the opposing runners from advancing a base and minimizes damage. I'm still in "big hope" mode... want to see improvement across the board AND maybe the last half of the schedule will allow us to get enough W's to move up in the conference and get that fading (for now) NCAA bid.

 

[65Jacket]

I try very hard to NOT comment on anything related to the continuum of recruiting and developing players/pitchers. I feel I am not qualified or in a position to make any judgments on that stuff from up here in Virginia. So... don't interpret my questions as any more than just questions to anyone who can shed light about the process.

If we accept that we've recruited players that are not 100% healthy (pitchers specifically)... isn't that a concern? I suppose each situation is handled case-by-case and you make your best judgement. However, who is making that call? Are the coaches equipped to make a "good" risk assessment on a player known to have physical issues? Do we have medical (baseball focused) 'experts' involved in the process to help with that assessment?

We're in the same position as the MLB club looking to draft the player. Is the player going to be able to contribute... and grow/improve over time OR will he continue to struggle health-wise? Is this an area where Tech is not getting it right?

Most of the posts on this, generally.... look at our pitching injuries as something totally out of our control OR in some cases, induced by our approach in coaching. Is the problem really a flaw in recruiting as well? Probably... all of those things depending on individual cases.

The severity of the injuries was worse than expected, but enough to get the bigs to drop off. We still may come out better in the long run with both Hughes and English. Heck, English was our best hitter last year and an outstanding first baseman, but he wants to pitch.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The severity of the injuries was worse than expected, but enough to get the bigs to drop off. We still may come out better in the long run with both Hughes and English. Heck, English was our best hitter last year and an outstanding first baseman, but he wants to pitch.

You are brave to think that we may be better next year. I've thought it several times and never written it. It seems every year I think that and it doesn't happen.

English is a massive loss for fielding this year in addition to pitching. I "expect" he'll be back next year but not proficient till the end of the year. And about that time he'll be draft eligible. So either he'll be doing real well and leaving in the draft or not doing well and not going in the draft. At least that is my glass half empty expectation.

Hughes should be more proficient next year and then gone ......

Along the lines of @FredJacket questions, is it possible that pitchers with pre-existing conditions prefer GT since GT is a better career option if baseball doesn't work out? Or am I looking at this with gold colored glasses (note lead in this Bloomberg story about college grads ..... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...tuck-with-low-wages-as-hiring-in-u-s-heats-up)

 

[twofortheroad]

Along the lines of @FredJacket questions, is it possible that pitchers with pre-existing conditions prefer GT since GT is a better career option if baseball doesn't work out? Or am I looking at this with gold colored glasses (note lead in this Bloomberg story about college grads ..... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...tuck-with-low-wages-as-hiring-in-u-s-heats-up)

I have to say this is a little conspiratorial....Hughes did not know he had an injury/hereditary issue until his exam with the Orioles (which would have occurred in June/July of 2015 and had already signed a NLI with GT) and as far as English goes, up until mid-December he was on a throwing program and thought it was just tendonitis. As far as Parr goes, he has never sat out for an injury from what I had heard so this is a first for him. King and Ben S. - you don't know. But to say that they have pre-existing conditions and choose GT due to that is a little extreme. The players all have to go through physical exams each fall so it there was an issue, it would have been found, especially one such as these if someone was trying to hide anything.

I do agree that it can take 18 months - 2 years for some to fully recover and be back and ready.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I have to say this is a little conspiratorial....Hughes did not know he had an injury/hereditary issue until his exam with the Orioles (which would have occurred in June/July of 2015 and had already signed a NLI with GT) and as far as English goes, up until mid-December he was on a throwing program and thought it was just tendonitis. As far as Parr goes, he has never sat out for an injury from what I had heard so this is a first for him. King and Ben S. - you don't know. But to say that they have pre-existing conditions and choose GT due to that is a little extreme. The players all have to go through physical exams each fall so it there was an issue, it would have been found, especially one such as these if someone was trying to hide anything.

I do agree that it can take 18 months - 2 years for some to fully recover and be back and ready.

I didn't mean for a conspiratorial tone to the question. I should have prefaced it better.

What I was thinking is that an athlete knows when something isn't quite right. He tries to power through it and train through it, but knows that maybe it isn't ok. I know I have done that at a much lower level of competition. As you point out, both Hughes and English had something that wasn't quite right.

So does it make sense to sense to go to GT as a backup? I'm grasping at straws to try and explain our bad "luck".

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I have to recant my opinion on Bart being a weakness at catcher. I didn't check the stats and only remembered the bad throws. Currently we are about 50th best in not allowing stolen bases per game. We have thrown out 6 and allowed 16 to steal. Not that bad. Last year we were ~75th with a .79 stolen per game (mainly Pabst but Bart too).

Also, Bart has a .987 fielding percentage which is close to Pabst last year (.996).

Anyway, what brought this on is that D1 baseball has Bart as the All-American catcher in their mid-season report. What gets him there is his .339 batting average and .704 slugging. https://d1baseball.com/analysis/state-baseball-midseason-report/

 

[GTNavyNuke]

To end this morning monologue as work demands, one thing is that the second half of our season is going to be easier than the first half as others (@FredJacket et al) have noted.

For the first half, our overall SOS was 9th. Our predicted total season SOS is 31st. So that would mean our second half SOS is ~53rd. http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/schedule/Georgia-Tech

 

[FredJacket]

Having the SOS turn in Tech's favor is an "on paper" thing. Gotta execute! ...and I'm still convinced (hopeful) that we can. This team has proven it cannot just get off the bus and beat lesser teams. Lesser teams (much lesser) have managed to score waaaaaaay too many runs in a few cases....double digits from: Youngstown St (RPI #258), Belmont (RPI #127).

I'd said on a different thread that .500 in the ACC would be a good finish. We're below that trajectory... and looking at the final 6 series, getting to .500 would be VERY impressive at this point. We would have to go 11-7 over those 18 games. Assuming we go 2-4 against LOU and UVA at home... the best teams left on the schedule, then we have to go 9-3 in the other series (@ND, @VT, Pitt, @Duke). To accomplish this... will require we sweep at least one series and win 3-4 others. So far, we have not won a single series; but have not been swept either.

As proof I'm not objective... I cannot begin to predict what will happen. I do think we're better than ND, VT, Pitt, and Duke... but we've proven we can't stop teams too. We shall see. I will keep punishing myself by caring and hoping and watching. Go JACKETS!

 

[twofortheroad]

Bart is a very good catcher. Some of the steals have come on pitcher delivery and what I call scrum balls - you know the ones that skid under and he traps them, not a passed ball/wild pitch but he has to dig out. There we go again - pitching...

But no joking, he is getting really good recognition nationwide, a couple of watch lists etc and then the mid-season award. Catching a lot of games though.

 

[THWG]

Bart is a very good catcher. Some of the steals have come on pitcher delivery and what I call scrum balls - you know the ones that skid under and he traps them, not a passed ball/wild pitch but he has to dig out. There we go again - pitching...

But no joking, he is getting really good recognition nationwide, a couple of watch lists etc and then the mid-season award. Catching a lot of games though.

I really hope that he isn't draft eligible after this year (I don't know his age) because he is going to be elite next year if he comes back. He will also have some help behind the plate with Cameron Turley and Kale Ledford coming in.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I really hope that he isn't draft eligible after this year (I don't know his age) because he is going to be elite next year if he comes back. He will also have some help behind the plate with Cameron Turley and Kale Ledford coming in.

Joey was born 12/15/96. Should be draft eligible in 2018. So we have him next year as a Jr too ...... then he'll probably (and should) accept a high draft offer.

 

[THWG]

Joey was born 12/15/96. Should be draft eligible in 2018. So we have him next year as a Jr too ...... then he'll probably (and should) accept a high draft offer.

Good. I'm glad that he'll be around next year too.

 

[Squints]

The lack of double plays this year isn't because our pitchers don't have plenty of lead off walks, HBPs or hits. It's because we aren't turning the plays.

Or we haven't been getting the type of balls in play that lead to double plays. Looking at how many DP's you get as a barometer of defensive performance is a bad move. There's too much noise in the data.

 

[senoiajacket]

............There's too much noise in the data.

Spoken like a true engineer. Well done!

 

[senoiajacket]

Having the SOS turn in Tech's favor is an "on paper" thing. Gotta execute! ...and I'm still convinced (hopeful) that we can. This team has proven it cannot just get off the bus and beat lesser teams. Lesser teams (much lesser) have managed to score waaaaaaay too many runs in a few cases....double digits from: Youngstown St (RPI #258), Belmont (RPI #127).

I'd said on a different thread that .500 in the ACC would be a good finish. We're below that trajectory... and looking at the final 6 series, getting to .500 would be VERY impressive at this point. We would have to go 11-7 over those 18 games. Assuming we go 2-4 against LOU and UVA at home... the best teams left on the schedule, then we have to go 9-3 in the other series (@ND, @VT, Pitt, @Duke). To accomplish this... will require we sweep at least one series and win 3-4 others. So far, we have not won a single series; but have not been swept either.

As proof I'm not objective... I cannot begin to predict what will happen. I do think we're better than ND, VT, Pitt, and Duke... but we've proven we can't stop teams too. We shall see. I will keep punishing myself by caring and hoping and watching. Go JACKETS!

I'm with ya Fred. I really want to believe we will turn it around, and I will NEVER stop watching/listening/cheering/attending/hoping, but there has been not one spec of consistency (I take that back, Zach Ryan has been pretty consistent) to make me objectively think our pitching can string together 3 good games against ACC level competition (even on the lower end) much less multiple series. Here's to hoping though ......