Stats Half-Season Rankings (AP & Differential PPD)

[AE 87]

Currently, the AP has Memphis Ranked #17 and Temple #21. They were methodologically excluded from the Differential points/drive ranking because they had not played 3 or more power 5 opponents (Memphis 2 and Temple only 1). However, Memphis would have been ranked in the top 5 based on their 2 pwr 5 games, iirc.

I think three things jump out here for me. First is how good UNC looks. When you consider that they threw 2 or 3 interceptions in the endzone week 1 vs SCar, they even look better. Second is how Alabama appears over-ranked. Third is that Michigan looks better than their record.

Obviously there are differences in quality of opposition, but these tend to sort themselves out.

GT is currently #55, #40 OffPPD and #84 DefPPD. This is about where our D was last year at this time, but perhaps we underestimated the loss of Nealy, Green, and IJ when it comes to turnovers.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I wouldn't stop at Nealy, Green and IJ. I'd add just about every single player who graduated off of last year's squad. The guys who replaced ALL OF THEM are a far cry from the guy they replaced. Name one guy who replaced a former starter on any squad who has had equal or better production.

RG........... nope. Shamire is as good as it gets in trying to match production, but Shaq's shoes were enormous.
AB........... give me a break.
Bback.......Days/Laskey look like hall of famers at this point in comparison.
WR.......... lol.
Nealy....... nope.
Green...... nope.
IJ............. nope.

OK. Now if that wasn't bad enough. Look at how so many of the returning starters have regressed. Is there even one returning starter who is more productive than last year?

 

[LibertyTurns]

If Pitt beats Cuse and Duke beats VT I'm quite sure GT will be the only team to have played 5 Top 25 teams and all 5 might be in the Top 20. Hell, UNC beats UVa and there might even be 6. UNC is lurking just outside the Top 25 now.

 

[CuseJacket]

If Pitt beats Cuse and Duke beats VT I'm quite sure GT will be the only team to have played 5 Top 25 teams and all 5 might be in the Top 20. Hell, UNC beats UVa and there might even be 6. UNC is lurking just outside the Top 25 now.

I'm with you for the most part. To be fair though I'd guess 2-3 of those top 25 teams wouldn't be ranked if we had beaten them. As bad as we've looked and as close as we've been to pulling one or two of those out, I'm drawing some other conclusions about the top 25.

 

[AE 87]

I wouldn't stop at Nealy, Green and IJ. I'd add just about every single player who graduated off of last year's squad. The guys who replaced ALL OF THEM are a far cry from the guy they replaced. Name one guy who replaced a former starter on any squad who has had equal or better production.

RG........... nope. Shamire is as good as it gets in trying to match production, but Shaq's shoes were enormous.
AB........... give me a break.
Bback.......Days/Laskey look like hall of famers at this point in comparison.
WR.......... lol.
Nealy....... nope.
Green...... nope.
IJ............. nope.

OK. Now if that wasn't bad enough. Look at how so many of the returning starters have regressed. Is there even one returning starter who is more productive than last year?

I was referring to our D's "improvement" last year. If you can say anything about individuals on O given our trainwreck of an OL, God bless you.

 

[awbuzz]

The indiviuals are playing hard... just not always sing from the same sheet of music as the others though.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Don't confuse youth with inability though. We have some younguns that are gonna be ballers sirs. Will Bryan, Brant Mitchell, Taquon Marshall, Marcus Marshall to name a few obvious ones.

 

[katlong]

View attachment 1241

Currently, the AP has Memphis Ranked #17 and Temple #21. They were methodologically excluded from the Differential points/drive ranking because they had not played 3 or more power 5 opponents (Memphis 2 and Temple only 1). However, Memphis would have been ranked in the top 5 based on their 2 pwr 5 games, iirc.

I think three things jump out here for me. First is how good UNC looks. When you consider that they threw 2 or 3 interceptions in the endzone week 1 vs SCar, they even look better. Second is how Alabama appears over-ranked. Third is that Michigan looks better than their record.

Obviously there are differences in quality of opposition, but these tend to sort themselves out.

GT is currently #55, #40 OffPPD and #84 DefPPD. This is about where our D was last year at this time, but perhaps we underestimated the loss of Nealy, Green, and IJ when it comes to turnovers.

Thanks for posting these. I didn't get to see the Memphis/Ole Miss game - I set it to record but stations switched it out. I did graduate school at Memphis after Tech and my husband went to Ole Miss. I thought it would be a tough game for Ole Miss the way their defense has deteriorated this year and the offense is on and off like ours. Has anyone seen Memphis play? Are they really that good, or was Ole Miss really that bad?

I have to say that while I get that Pitt has only lost one game, it is hard for me to see them as 25th. If we are THAT bad (again I understand W/L records drive that), it's hard to see us that far down from them - surely there are better teams. We didn't play well, but they are slow and seriously - we should have won that game despite our performance. I should be happy for the ACC; I'm just surprised by the high ranking of Pitt.

 

[AE 87]

Just another minor point. I think that this correlation suggests that the stat is a relatively reliable indicator of team strength. From this conclusion, we can further infer that the independent measures of offense and defense are reliable and that special teams as well as the interrelated factors like field position are less important (though they can ultimately affect particular games).

@katlong Pitt is #25 in AP and #24 in DiffPPD, so it's not that different. Their one loss was by 3 to undefeated Iowa who is #13 in AP and #9 in DiffPPD.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

I kinda doubt Pitt, Duke, or UNC will be ranked at the end of the season. We are easily as talented as those teams and likely more talented IMO....we just bungled too many plays and found ways to lose vs them. Noter Dame, Clemson, and FSU probably will be ranked at seasons end. We haven't looked good against the better teams thus far. FSU will be another good benchmark to measure what / where we are.

 

[AE 87]

I kinda doubt Pitt, Duke, or UNC will be ranked at the end of the season. We are easily as talented as those teams and likely more talented IMO....we just bungled too many plays and found ways to lose vs them. Noter Dame, Clemson, and FSU probably will be ranked at seasons end. We haven't looked good against the better teams thus far. FSU will be another good benchmark to measure what / where we are.

Well, that's why we play the games. Obviously, since those three teams are in the same division, losses will accumulate between them.

In DiffPPD, Duke is #28 (.16). It will be interesting to see how the games play out. As of now, ppd v pwr5 suggests unc, unranked by AP is the better team.

By the way, the logic of your post ignores that your view of our talent was probably tied to our expectation of being ranked.

 

[AE 87]

Just another minor point. I think that this correlation suggests that the stat is a relatively reliable indicator of team strength. From this conclusion, we can further infer that the independent measures of offense and defense are reliable and that special teams as well as the interrelated factors like field position are less important (though they can ultimately affect particular games).

@katlong Pitt is #25 in AP and #24 in DiffPPD, so it's not that different. Their one loss was by 3 to undefeated Iowa who is #13 in AP and #9 in DiffPPD.

Oh, I intended to tag @cyptomcat for his feedback on the correlation mentioned here and conclusions drawn from it. I also intended to tag @GTNavyNuke for his feedback on the implications to the significance of special teams. I'm thinking that perhaps special teams are perhaps influential only if really good or really bad.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Well, that's why we play the games. Obviously, since those three teams are in the same division, losses will accumulate between them.

In DiffPPD, Duke is #28 (.16). It will be interesting to see how the games play out. As of now, ppd v pwr5 suggests unc, unranked by AP is the better team.

By the way, the logic of your post ignores that your view of our talent was probably tied to our expectation of being ranked.

I'm not entirely following you I don't think.

Talent doesn't always equal wins. You can look at some recent Miami teams for examples. I certainly expected, preseason, to finish somewhere in the top 25. That obviously isn't happening. My preseason expectations underestimated the impact of lack of experience at the skill positions, didn't anticipate the volume of injuries we would endure, and over estimated our ability to disrupt the line of scrimmage on D. I also thought our Oline play run blocking would be much better than it has been.

That said. I think we have a lot of talent on this team. It just hasn't jelled as well as we would like obviously and a lot of it still has growing to do.

 

[AE 87]

I'm not entirely following you I don't think.

Talent doesn't always equal wins. You can look at some recent Miami teams for examples. I certainly expected, preseason, to finish somewhere in the top 25. That obviously isn't happening. My preseason expectations underestimated the impact of lack of experience at the skill positions, didn't anticipate the volume of injuries we would endure, and over estimated our ability to disrupt the line of scrimmage on D. I also thought our Oline play run blocking would be much better than it has been.

That said. I think we have a lot of talent on this team. It just hasn't jelled as well as we would like obviously and a lot of it still has growing to do.

My point was that every thing you say here can be true AND those teams can be competitive for staying ranked. The way you wrote the earlier post was like they can't be that good because we're about as good.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Not what I intended to convey. My language / communication skills are sorely lacking at times

I see some flaws in Duke, UNC, Pitt too I think but I have to watch more of the game than the fragment ive seen so far. Flaws that I think will catch up to them. Duke does not seem very good on offense. I don't think their D can carry them all year. I'm not convinced the UNC defense can carry them. I'm for sure no expert though and would go broke if gambling was my source of income. None are bad teams by any means. I'm just not certain they will be ranked top 25 at year's end. Just a mid season hunch.