GT Ranked 48th in Preseason SP+ Projections

Jmonty71

Jmonty71

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TheNaturalScientist said:
Link behind ESPN+ paywall: https://www.espn.com/college-footba...07/college-football-preseason-sp+-projections

The rankings include: returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. 5 ACC teams below us
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To be honest, I thought we would fall lower. Things not factored in is coaching ability and such, I guess. Which is why Ugag was always overrated with CMR... I know our recruiting has gotten better, but I think ESPN puts too much faith in those recruitment numbers. I would place us more in the mid 60s. A team that cannot win more than 5 games is below the mid-line, in my book. Basic math.. 130 teams, have of that.... That is where we are, I think.
 
gtrower

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Jmonty71 said:
To be honest, I thought we would fall lower. Things not factored in is coaching ability and such, I guess. Which is why Ugag was always overrated with CMR... I know our recruiting has gotten better, but I think ESPN puts too much faith in those recruitment numbers. I would place us more in the mid 60s. A team that cannot win more than 5 games is below the mid-line, in my book. Basic math.. 130 teams, have of that.... That is where we are, I think.
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“Basic math” isn’t a great way to do it here given differences in SOS. Mid 60s team would probably be enough to win 7-8 in the P12. You could argue these ratings don’t rely on recruiting enough given how much it likes P12 teams going into 2021.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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slugboy

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Heisman's Ghost said:
Frankly, I am surprised it is that high. I thought, given the schedule we would be ranked well below that, maybe down to about 75 or so. Winning 5 would be a sign of progress, of sorts.
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It has nothing to do with the schedule. Part of the point is to figure out how good your team is. If we played 12 games against Alabama, we’d probably either be 0-12 or 1-11, but that doesn’t mean we’re the worst team in the country. S&P+ and these other rankings factor that out. It’s about offensive and defensive production, the players that are coming back, and to a lesser extent the players who are joining.
ESPN will use it to forecast how many wins we have, but being twice as good next year as this doesn’t mean doubling our wins—we’ll probably lose closer in a lot of games. We should win more, though.
 

bke1984

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slugboy said:
If we played 12 games against Alabama, we’d probably either be 0-12 or 1-11
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Sign me up for this scenario where the one win is the last game of the season and we don't play them again for 20 years :)

In case you're wondering, Tech is 21-28-3 all-time against Alabama for a 40% winning pct. The only team with a better winning percentage against them with at least 50 matchups is Auburn at 43.5%

We also hold a one-game winning streak in the series :sneaky:
 
4shotB

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bke1984 said:
Sign me up for this scenario where the one win is the last game of the season and we don't play them again for 20 years :)

In case you're wondering, Tech is 21-28-3 all-time against Alabama for a 40% winning pct. The only team with a better winning percentage against them with at least 50 matchups is Auburn at 43.5%

We also hold a one-game winning streak in the series :sneaky:
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Not me. I want to play almost annually....just like Ohio State and/or Clemson do!! ;)
 

Heisman's Ghost

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slugboy said:
It has nothing to do with the schedule. Part of the point is to figure out how good your team is. If we played 12 games against Alabama, we’d probably either be 0-12 or 1-11, but that doesn’t mean we’re the worst team in the country. S&P+ and these other rankings factor that out. It’s about offensive and defensive production, the players that are coming back, and to a lesser extent the players who are joining.
ESPN will use it to forecast how many wins we have, but being twice as good next year as this doesn’t mean doubling our wins—we’ll probably lose closer in a lot of games. We should win more, though.
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Nothing to do with the schedule? Win 3 games again and the talk will be about nothing but the schedule. If you are just going to measure how good the team is then I am gullible but show me. Right now, I don't think we are a very good football team but more than willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. I put Tech in the bottom third until shown otherwise.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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bke1984 said:
Sign me up for this scenario where the one win is the last game of the season and we don't play them again for 20 years :)

In case you're wondering, Tech is 21-28-3 all-time against Alabama for a 40% winning pct. The only team with a better winning percentage against them with at least 50 matchups is Auburn at 43.5%

We also hold a one-game winning streak in the series :sneaky:
Click to expand...
Well, there was a reason that Bear Bryant in one of his biographies said that once Alabama had won its first national championship under his leadership he had it made if he did not have to look across the field and see "that damn Dodd". Then Curry comes along and beats the Tide a couple of times. I am kind of surprised that no one else is better than 40% against Alabama, other than Auburn. UGA and LSU have had limited, very limited, success against Alabama for sure.
 
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