GT Pitching

[GTNavyNuke]

Well, we all agree that pitching is key for us this year. Here are some Diggin In articles and Jason Howell interview:
http://www.ramblinwreck.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/021115aad.html
http://www.ramblinwreck.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/021215aad.html
http://www.ramblinwreck.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/021115aab.html

While there is great enthusiasm in the articles, previous GT year and summer results of returning pitchers are not encouraging. We're going to see how good Howell is in developing pitchers. I think last year he did a great job and we'll need that magic again this year.

Here are some stats of our returning pitchers with their last year stats and summer ball stats. First off, we lost pitchers who threw 55% of the innings last year. We have lots of questions other than Stanton, Pitts (hurt last year), King (hurt last year) and maybe Ben S who had a good summer.

I hope we do well to start pitching this season, but expect a very rocky early start and having to surge late season to make the NCAAs. Expect a lot of games like today where our relievers gave up 4 in the seventh to Fordham while we are sorting out the relievers.

 

[MWBATL]

Disappointing bullpen effort today. Hope we can bounce back in Game 2.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Looking at the last season and summer stats, Howell has his work cut out for him. But we ended up pretty well last year. Still stings a lot that Heddinger left for a lousy $100K bonus.

Yesterday we had King and Ben S, two of our best. Stanton today had one bad inning, but that's all it takes. It was the relievers who let us down - Gorst and rookie Datoc. Wiseman had a second good day closing out. At least we have a lot of relief pitchers to try - if they stink it up don't give them another chance for a few weeks.

 

[MWBATL]

Liked how Zac Ryan looked.....liked him ALOT! Was also surprised to see Gold on the mound. Not nearly as impressed with him. But Ryan was sharp.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Here we are past mid way in the regular season. We've seen pitching be our Achilles heel. But if you told me to start the season that our two seniors wouldn't be carrying much of the load at all, I would be ecstatic with where we are. And assuming King stays for next year*, we should be in much better shape for pitching over the next two years. And our pitching has gotten better I think as the year goes on I think.

Here's the current performance of our pitchers sorted by WHIP**. I had a column where I listed what I thought the pitchers current role on the team was (starter, mid relief, closer) since we need pitchers for all phases. I think that Pitts should be mid relief and we should do staff pitching for the mid-week to develop the kids who are going to be with us for the next two to three years.

https://www.mediafire.com/convkey/d19b/jr6k3vfl49z86386g.jpg

*Here's where all our pitchers from past years are currently - mostly single A. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draf...0&Signed=&Active=&Source=&Bats=&Throws=&Sort= I don't expect King to be drafted high and expect him to stay and develop further as a starter next year. But at 22 this year, he may leave. Here are King's stats over the years ... regression this year mostly in ERA and not in WHIP so I think it's been a combination of bad luck and having to stay in since we don't have other alternatives. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=jonathan-king-2

** I like WHIP and ERA to evaluate a pitcher since WHIP seems a little more in control of the pitcher. I may post more on WHIP later. When I calculate WHIP, I include Hit By Pitch since that is in the pitchers "control". Both WHIP and ERA are important stats.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Here's some more on WHIP and ERA. First, in the table above I calculated the Earned Runs per Inning to compare to WHIP which is also on a per inning basis. GT has a .30 ratio or ERI / WHIP, which means to me that 30% of the time an opposing player gets on a run is scored. Contrast that to our opponents who allowed us to get 37% of a run every time someone gets on. I think we are better in this category because of our ability to turn DPs and Pabst gunning down attempted steals. A good defense makes a pitcher look better!

Also, here is an interesting scatter chart of ERA vs WHIP. Considering that Pitts had a WHIP of 3 on Saturday (=6 hits, 5 walks, 1 HBP in 4.0 innings), you can see how fortunate (tic) we were that he only had an ERA of 2.25 (1 ER/(4.0 innings/9 innings per game)). Against our season average of putting 12 people on, we would expect to give up 3.6 runs (=12*.30).

Bottom line. Good pitching starts with throwing strikes and keeping people off base.

From http://northsidebaseball.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=54188

 

[MWBATL]

Some extremely interesting stats in these posts. Thanks for doing all this work. It pretty much effects what we have been saying all along, and what every baseball fan knows....walks just kill you! Our sophomores are pitching tons of innings, I believe we lead the nation in % of innings pitched by our underclassmen (FR/SO). What is fascinating to note is the fact that frosh pitchers have gotten virtually no pitching time. I must admit I find this disturbing, as it implies a serious hole in our recruiting of pitchers. Or it implies we just don't want to/aren't willing to let them get some experience under fire. We haven't had many blowouts, it is true, but other teams have one freshman pitcher who they feature and develop (Virginia had one I recall seeing who threw serious innings against us).

 

[Squints]

Did we recruit any noteworthy freshman pitchers?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Did we recruit any noteworthy freshman pitchers?

@Squints , Not sure of the current national rankings (have to pay @ Perfect Game) but we have 7 RHP coming in. http://www.perfectgame.org/Rankings/Recruiting/CollegeCommits.aspx?ID=1628&g=2015

Let's see who is drafted and what level to see the best prospects. That said

• Tristin English looks good @10 of 10 and was ranked 37th best in the country..... http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=291197
• Jonathon Hughes (9.5) and was ranked 77th best in the country ..... http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=292195
• Bobby Gauvraux (9.5) http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=295513

But I go by scouting stars less in baseball than football. Again, they could get drafted this year and then not come to GT.

But looking at what we have right now for starters, we have King (Jr) who is solid and Gold, a converted fielder as our two best. And looking at how we develop freshman this year and past years, I doubt any will come in and start for us next year. But I think some of the Fr and So pitchers we have now will blossom as I talked about above. (At least I hope so, unless the wheels come off the car ....... )

One other note (thanks Stinger90), Gold is on the John Olerud watch list for the guy who goes best both ways ...... http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2015/04/22/2015-john-olerud-award-watch/

 

[Squints]

@Squints , Not sure of the current national rankings (have to pay @ Perfect Game) but we have 7 RHP coming in. http://www.perfectgame.org/Rankings/Recruiting/CollegeCommits.aspx?ID=1628&g=2015

Let's see who is drafted and what level to see the best prospects. That said

• Tristin English looks good @10 of 10 and was ranked 37th best in the country..... http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=291197
• Jonathon Hughes (9.5) and was ranked 77th best in the country ..... http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=292195
• Bobby Gauvraux (9.5) http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=295513

But I go by scouting stars less in baseball than football. Again, they could get drafted this year and then not come to GT.

But looking at what we have right now for starters, we have King (Jr) who is solid and Gold, a converted fielder as our two best. And looking at how we develop freshman this year and past years, I doubt any will come in and start for us next year. But I think some of the Fr and So pitchers we have now will blossom as I talked about above. (At least I hope so, unless the wheels come off the car ....... )

One other note (thanks Stinger90), Gold is on the John Olerud watch list for the guy who goes best both ways ...... http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2015/04/22/2015-john-olerud-award-watch/

Well I was actually asking if we had recruited any notable freshman pitchers for the current season. We're wringing our hands over the lack of freshman and I don't see why we would unless we actually recruited a prospect who was expected to come in and play very well early. I don't think we did.

We had a lot of freshman contributors in the pitching staff last year and despite the narrative they pitched pretty well so I'm not surprised we don't have many freshmen pitchers this year. It makes sense. And I don't buy into the idea that we have systemic issues developing pitchers. Especially this idea concercing freshman. This is the first time in a couple years we haven't had a freshman contributor in the rotation in a few years IIRC. And also when you consider that last year when we lost two of our starting three to injury early in the year and despite that the pitching carried us (with significant freshmen innings). Most of our sophmore pitchers have progressed since last year and are pretty big contributors this year. The facts don't fit the anecdotal evidence.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Well I was actually asking if we had recruited any notable freshman pitchers for the current season. .......

Post #5 has the 4 Fr who have pitched limited innings for us this year. Daniel Gooden pitched 2.0 innings since I did the listing. Plus Cody Worthy, Ryan Young and Cory Pope haven't pitched an inning yet.

I think the pitching coaching staff is pretty good too and will get some of these guys drafted. But they are all projects and not like the kids UVa or Vandy get who come in and start as Fr. I think Jonathon King in 2012-13 was our last Fr who pitched a lot of innings. And he is KEY to us having good pitching next year {Please don't pull a Heddinger}.

 

[Squints]

But what were those guys rated coming out of high school? If they weren't blue chip prospect why are we expecting a big impact? That's what I'm thinking anyway. Don't forget about Parr. He pitched a bunch of great innings for us last year as a freshman starter. As for King I'd be very surprised if he left. He doesn't have great stuff or projectability (he's probably done growing) so I wouldn't expect him to get drafted all that high. Heddinger had a classic pitcher's frame and threw in the low 90s. I've been wrong before though...

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Heddinger shouldn't have left. He could have learned a lot more at GT in a protected environment. These are his stats. Check out the 2015 ones .... classic frame or not. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=josh-heddinger

 

[Squints]

He could have learned a lot more at GT in a protected environment.

Disagree. College coaches destroy pitchers (I would point to Pitts as an example. We rushed him back from surgery big time). The minor leagues are a much more protected environment than college. There's no pressure to win and (the good) professional level coaches won't let bad habits go ignored just because of results. It's a pretty commonly held belief that if you have professional aspirations it's better to get professional level coaching sooner rather than later. The job of a college coach is to win and the job of minor league pitching coach to move you up the ladder. I have no doubt that the Tigers minor league player development staff can do more to get you closer to the majors than the coaches here. Not a knock on our guys that's just the way it is.

Could also be a money thing. Even though he's got the size and stuff scouts look for I don't have a clue where he was projected but if the 14th round was way higher than he expected to be drafted the next couple of years based on the information he had then I don't blame him for taking the money. That's part of the economics of the draft since they introduced pool spending. School's not going anywhere. It'll be here if he doesn't make it.

And I'm not worried about his numbers. I try to keep tabs on guys we get drafted so I know his numbers. But he's only thrown 32 innings. It looks like he's had a rough start this year which tanked the numbers. But it's a very small sample. Though I'm not sure how realistic his chances were to begin with.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Disagree. College coaches destroy pitchers (I would point to Pitts as an example. We rushed him back from surgery big time). The minor leagues are a much more protected environment than college. There's no pressure to win and (the good) professional level coaches won't let bad habits go ignored just because of results. It's a pretty commonly held belief that if you have professional aspirations it's better to get professional level coaching sooner rather than later. The job of a college coach is to win and the job of minor league pitching coach to move you up the ladder. I have no doubt that the Tigers minor league player development staff can do more to get you closer to the majors than the coaches here. Not a knock on our guys that's just the way it is.

Could also be a money thing. Even though he's got the size and stuff scouts look for I don't have a clue where he was projected but if the 14th round was way higher than he expected to be drafted the next couple of years based on the information he had then I don't blame him for taking the money. That's part of the economics of the draft since they introduced pool spending. School's not going anywhere. It'll be here if he doesn't make it.

And I'm not worried about his numbers. I try to keep tabs on guys we get drafted so I know his numbers. But he's only thrown 32 innings. It looks like he's had a rough start this year which tanked the numbers. But it's a very small sample. Though I'm not sure how realistic his chances were to begin with.

Yup, we disagree. I am biased by the ESPN Outside the Lines show on the Minors along with other things I have read. Non-blue chip minor league players, get nothing for pay and seem to be treated as disposable commodities. Being drafted in the 14th round with a signing bonus of $100K, Heddinger passed up being a starting pitcher in a competitive ACC program where he had developed a lot -- especially toward the end of the 2014 season. If he had been a good starter for us this year, I think he would have been drafted with a much higher signing bonus. But he did get that $100K and his $15K or whatever salary this year. I still think his future value went down a lot when he went to the minors, but I don't know all the facts.

This is how I keep track of our players. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draf...0&Signed=&Active=&Source=&Bats=&Throws=&Sort= And also Beesball.com. If there's another good link, I'd like to know it.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

@Squints , I didn't address your point that minor league coaches are better than our / NCAA coaches. In general that may be true, but I think we have one of the best programs around (out of 298 college teams) and would think our coaches are as good as minor league coaches in general. But I have no factual way to support that belief.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Here's another way to look at it. I checked all the 14th round picks since 2011. Not a single one made it to the majors that I could see. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draf...0&Signed=&Active=&Source=&Bats=&Throws=&Sort= Looks like about 100.

So going to the minors early when drafted in 14th round is bad financially - better to stay in school for a free education and room and board than get the $15K a year or whatever minor league sharecroppers type salary.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Nice Chicago Tribune article on Zac ..... http://www.chicagotribune.com/subur...john-mutka-column-st-0511-20150509-story.html