GT Odds in Regionals

GTNavyNuke

GTNavyNuke

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There are two ways to look at the odds for regionals. How our team has done as a program and how we have played this year.

The easy one is as a program. Since the NCAA regional format started in 1975, we have gone 26 times. 6 of 26 times (23%) we won the division and went on to super regional. 3 of those 6 super regional games we won to go to the CWS. We have never won the CWS. Since we hosted as #1 seed at least 8 times, this is not a good performance. I think that is why Danny Hall has changed his approach to small ball - to do better in the NCAA. And I think it is the way to go. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Tech_baseball )

The other way to estimate odds is based on play averaged for the whole year. Using Boyds World Iterative Strength Ratings (ISR), we are about 1/3 likely to beat Washington or Ole Miss in any individual game. **

Our only real chance is to beat Washington on Friday and then Ole Miss on Saturday (Ole Miss should beat Jax easily). Then we get to watch someone else play at 2 PM on Sunday. That winner of the 2PM game then gets to play whoever is 2-0 at 6PM. This is a massive advantage. In every one of the 16 regions last year, the team which took the 2-0 lead won the division. (Only 4 of 16 even went to a Monday game.) The chance of us going 2-0 and then going on to win the division is about 11% (=1/3 * 1/3).

Beating these odds is going to make going to the super regional even sweeter!

**Note on ISR:
 
Stinger90

Stinger90

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Many thanks NUKE for your hard work. You have made this forum more enjoyable as well as this year with your input.

Also, thanks to Eric and the rest for having a separate form for beesball and the other posters for sharing their thoughts !(y)
 
GTNavyNuke

GTNavyNuke

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To make the estimate simpler, I said that we need to go 2-0 to win. While true in 2013 that only 2-0 teams won, in 2012 5 of 16 and in 2011 3 of 16 teams went 1-1 to win. Problem for us is that of those 8 teams, 2 started as #1 seeds, 4 started as #2 seed; 1 started as a #3 seed and 1 started as a #4 seed.

Another way to estimate is how many 3 seeds have won regionals in the past 3 years. It was 0, 2 and 4 in 2013, 2012 and 2011, respectively. That's 6 out of 48 or 12.5%. (One 4 seed, Stony Brook won their regional in this time.)

No reason to get the hemlock out yet, a #9 seed winning the ACC has lower odds.
 
Stinger90

Stinger90

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GTNavyNuke said:
To make the estimate simpler, I said that we need to go 2-0 to win. While true in 2013 that only 2-0 teams won, in 2012 5 of 16 and in 2011 3 of 16 teams went 1-1 to win. Problem for us is that of those 8 teams, 2 started as #1 seeds, 4 started as #2 seed; 1 started as a #3 seed and 1 started as a #4 seed.

Another way to estimate is how many 3 seeds have won regionals in the past 3 years. It was 0, 2 and 4 in 2013, 2012 and 2011, respectively. That's 6 out of 48 or 12.5%. (One 4 seed, Stony Brook won their regional in this time.)

No reason to get the hemlock out yet, a #9 seed winning the ACC has lower odds.
Click to expand...

In 2008, Fresno State beat Uga and was the lowest seeded team (4th in Regional) to win the CWS.

They became the lowest ranked team to ever win the CWS if I'm not mistaken and the 5th. consecutive team to win the title that was not one of the 8 national seeds. Like Stony Brook, they were the "Cinderella" team throughout the tournament. Stony Brook gave LSU all they could handle.
 

dmurdock

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Let me go on record with my pessimistic prediction.

We lose to Washington in a low scoring game, not getting the clutch hits we need. We handle Jax St easily by 5+ runs in the losers bracket game, but fall to Ole Miss in the Sunday elimination game. Washington wins the regional, and beats UL-L to make it to the CWS. They lose their first game of the CWS and either go 0-2 or 1-2 in Omaha.

The disadvantage of winning the ACC Tournament is that we can't sneak up on anyone. Getting Washington's ace I think is going to cause us to go into a tailspin that we aren't going to be able to get out of.

I hope I am wrong. I hope our bats stay hot like they were in the ACC Tourney, we get a national reputation for clutch 2-out hits, we continue to play error-free defense, and our pitchers never have trouble finding the strike zone.

Regardless of how this weekend goes, I like the makeup of this team and am excited to see these kids develop over the next couple years. My daughter and I made a trip to Atlanta in 2012 and took in a softball doubleheader Saturday afternoon (split with VT, which turned out to be a preview of the ACC Championship Game), a Braves game Sat evening (loss to the Pirates), and a Tech Baseball game Sun afternoon (loss to Clemson). We need to do that again next spring.
 
Stinger90

Stinger90

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dmurdock said:
Let me go on record with my pessimistic prediction.

We lose to Washington in a low scoring game, not getting the clutch hits we need. We handle Jax St easily by 5+ runs in the losers bracket game, but fall to Ole Miss in the Sunday elimination game. Washington wins the regional, and beats UL-L to make it to the CWS. They lose their first game of the CWS and either go 0-2 or 1-2 in Omaha.

The disadvantage of winning the ACC Tournament is that we can't sneak up on anyone. Getting Washington's ace I think is going to cause us to go into a tailspin that we aren't going to be able to get out of.

I hope I am wrong. I hope our bats stay hot like they were in the ACC Tourney, we get a national reputation for clutch 2-out hits, we continue to play error-free defense, and our pitchers never have trouble finding the strike zone.

Regardless of how this weekend goes, I like the makeup of this team and am excited to see these kids develop over the next couple years. My daughter and I made a trip to Atlanta in 2012 and took in a softball doubleheader Saturday afternoon (split with VT, which turned out to be a preview of the ACC Championship Game), a Braves game Sat evening (loss to the Pirates), and a Tech Baseball game Sun afternoon (loss to Clemson). We need to do that again next spring.
Click to expand...

MODS PLEASE BAN ;) <kidding>

You make a case on your post and I think that may/could happen. Like you, I hope I'm wrong. Our team has done a good job in proving the media and others wrong this year.

Go Jackets
 
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