GT - Duke and Points Per Drive

[AE 87]

Before Saturday, Duke had averaged 2.63 ppd on offense and allowed 1.06 ppd on defense. GT had averaged 3.31 ppd on offense and allowed 2.43 ppd on defense.

Saturday, Duke scored about 3.7 ppd. Now, it's true that our offensive turnovers helped them in the second half, but they scored 3.5 ppd in the first half on two touchdowns of 75 and 82 yards in four possessions.

Duke has a good, well-coached D. Even in a losing effort where their offense only scored .625 ppd against Miami, they held Miami to just under 1.5 ppd.

I don't think Duke has a very good Offense. I expect that they'll have some low scoring games in the rest of their ACC schedule. I would be surprised if they win-out.

However, this game showed that our D really is worse than even I thought, and I was skeptical of how we had performed before this game. It seems to me that our D is performing well below its talent level, and I don't know if it's a matter of scheme or execution.

The next few weeks will be interesting.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Agree overall. Thanks. Only comment is that the first TD in the first half was aided by the unforced punt off-sides by us. I know you use drives, but that was effectively a turnover. I agree Duke is not very good offensively; unfortunately we were worse defensively and ST. Duke should lose 2-3 more ACC games and not be a factor.

I looked on Football Outsiders and Study Hall for the updated ppd data and F/+ data. Didn't find it yet.

But you could do a PhD dissertation at Alabama on the mathematical analysis of football ....... http://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...odel-for-the-analysis-of-the-game-of-football

 

[Mack]

Before Saturday, Duke had averaged 2.63 ppd on offense and allowed 1.06 ppd on defense. GT had averaged 3.31 ppd on offense and allowed 2.43 ppd on defense.

Saturday, Duke scored about 3.7 ppd. Now, it's true that our offensive turnovers helped them in the second half, but they scored 3.5 ppd in the first half on two touchdowns of 75 and 82 yards in four possessions.

Duke has a good, well-coached D. Even in a losing effort where their offense only scored .625 ppd against Miami, they held Miami to just under 1.5 ppd.

I don't think Duke has a very good Offense. I expect that they'll have some low scoring games in the rest of their ACC schedule. I would be surprised if they win-out.

However, this game showed that our D really is worse than even I thought, and I was skeptical of how we had performed before this game. It seems to me that our D is performing well below its talent level, and I don't know if it's a matter of scheme or execution.

The next few weeks will be interesting.

Everybody it seems likes the underdog and Dook has been one for awhile .What I have noticed in Cutlciffs days at Dook is he takees what he has and makes them play better and thats the sign of a good coach.Now I admit figured we would handle them since they are not or I thought they were not physical but yesterday they played well on both sides of the ball.........now arm tackling is big no no to me but after reflecting back what I saw was a speedy halfback running by our guys since we didnt havae the speed to catch up or get angle on him.......all we good do was throw a arm out and it didnt work(it usually doesnt)'.They are not a push over anymore and we have to get better vs the run and the pass.......

 

[cyptomcat]

How many points per ref call though?

 

[Mack]

Everybody it seems likes the underdog and Dook has been one for awhile .What I have noticed in Cutlciffs days at Dook is he takees what he has and makes them play better and thats the sign of a good coach.Now I admit figured we would handle them since they are not or I thought they were not physical but yesterday they played well on both sides of the ball.........now arm tackling is big no no to me but after reflecting back what I saw was a speedy halfback running by our guys since we didnt havae the speed to catch up or get angle on him.......all we good do was throw a arm out and it didnt work(it usually doesnt)'.They are not a push over anymore and we have to get better vs the run and the pass.......

Didnt see that many bad calls but what did stand out was the refs not CALLING anything when we rushed the passer.When a guy puts a choke hold on you right in fromt of head linesman ............usually a penalty........not saying the refs didnt hurt but we have prospered by refs call this year also..........remember GSU and the call at end of game.

 

[Ggee87]

Duke exploits your defenses weaknesses. We dont play the read option well, we dont tackle well, and when you spread us out you can basically run it all day long. Dukes D is strangely pretty good. We got whipped on both LOS and it showed. Now i know the refs missed a ton of calls... but for the most part, it still stands true.

 

[Jerry the Jacket]

Our defense is not that bad. We need for our offense to do their part as well. Too many unforced errors on both sides of the ball. If you want to watch bad defense dial up Baylor, TCU, UCLA, UNC, etc. There are a lot worse defensive teams out there than our Yellow Jackets!

Go Jackets!

 

[Animal02]

Didnt see that many bad calls but what did stand out was the refs not CALLING anything when we rushed the passer.When a guy puts a choke hold on you right in fromt of head linesman ............usually a penalty........not saying the refs didnt hurt but we have prospered by refs call this year also..........remember GSU and the call at end of game.

I can take the judgement calls......the Smelter pass that could have been a reception but wasn't. Even most of the PI calls......the Lateral/forward pass was one that went our way. Besides the choke holds.....the butt on the ground / advance for 3 yards and a first was really was the most disgusting.........making that stop and getting the ball back may have been the difference in the game....instead their drive continues and they get points. Not that it is an excuse.....we played poorly....yet were still playing enough to possibly pull it out.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Fwiw....I haven't seen our Oline get whipped yet this year. The Oline was not our problem Saturday...at all.

 

[AE 87]

Our defense is not that bad. We need for our offense to do their part as well. Too many unforced errors on both sides of the ball. If you want to watch bad defense dial up Baylor, TCU, UCLA, UNC, etc. There are a lot worse defensive teams out there than our Yellow Jackets!

Go Jackets!

I'm sorry, Jerry, but I don't get your reference to Baylor and TCU. Even after this past weekend, Baylor is #3 (4.23 ypp) and TCU is #20 (4.75 ypp) in yards/play defense. Before this past weekend, Baylor was #6 (.90 ppd) and TCU was #4 (.80 ppd) in points/drive scoring defense. These had been statistically two of the best defenses in the country.

When they played each other, they each scored ~3.4 points/drive, with Baylor having 18 drives to TCU's 17 drives. Yes, 3.4 ppd is pretty high, but Baylor and TCU also both have very good offenses. That's still fewer points/drive than we allowed Duke, and Duke's offense is not Baylor's.

I think you have to embrace points/drive as a better stat than points/game when evaluating scoring offense and scoring defense. You can't just say our defense that allowed 31 points against Duke is better than TCU's which allowed Baylor 61 when Baylor had twice as many drives as Duke.

 

[33jacket]

I can tell you the problem with our D. But you already know what i am going to say. If i had the time to do what longest day does but with our D. It would be. Well i would get banned.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Our front four play hard. But play at a size disadvantage. You can get away with having small quick DEs if you have war daddies at DT. You can get away with having one undersize DT if the rest of the line has good size and skill. It is awful damn hard to have an elite D if you are light in the pants across the LOS.

 

[Mack]

I can take the judgement calls......the Smelter pass that could have been a reception but wasn't. Even most of the PI calls......the Lateral/forward pass was one that went our way. Besides the choke holds.....the butt on the ground / advance for 3 yards and a first was really was the most disgusting.........making that stop and getting the ball back may have been the difference in the game....instead their drive continues and they get points. Not that it is an excuse.....we played poorly....yet were still playing enough to possibly pull it out.

See your point but what I was looking at was the world wrestling holds on our outside rush on the passer....guys got took down with wonderful choke holds.My take is that we had five good days when we got some breaks that helped us and Saturday was not one of them...Folks poo poo Dook but they played well and were agressive and held their own physically which was un Dook.......we will get better.

 

[Mack]

Duke exploits your defenses weaknesses. We dont play the read option well, we dont tackle well, and when you spread us out you can basically run it all day long. Dukes D is strangely pretty good. We got whipped on both LOS and it showed. Now i know the refs missed a ton of calls... but for the most part, it still stands true.

See your point but what was bad was we couldnt get off the block at LOS at times and we were late getting to the ball carrier(backers). About all we did was arm tackle not due to lack of effort but due to our lack of speed....Dook only needed a crack and man did that kid fly all over us..........we need some beef and soon on the DL.

 

[new jacket404]

How did Devine play any one

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

I haven't seen any tape so can only offer what I observed at the game regarding Devine. He did a good job IMO. Got good push vs his guy. I thought the line played pretty well all in all. Didnt see many missed blocks or busted assignments. And I thought we controlled the line of scrimmage. Oline did not lose this one for us.

 

[Mack]

I haven't seen any tape so can only offer what I observed at the game regarding Devine. He did a good job IMO. Got good push vs his guy. I thought the line played pretty well all in all. Didnt see many missed blocks or busted assignments. And I thought we controlled the line of scrimmage. Oline did not lose this one for us.

Now what impressed me was the quickness of the Dook backs......they got a small crease and WHOOM they were in our secondary.........we got blocked no doubt about it but like you said we did well running the ball stat wise but we didnt do well in red zone in first half and that hurt......also our luck had to run out and this time when we got behind we stayed behind.

 

[33jacket]

How did Devine play any one

Good in alot of spots. Imo he could replace braun.

 

[takethepoints]

There one I liked was when JT took the option left and saw the entire Puke D waiting for him. He reversed field. Unluckily for the left OLB, he was in a position to stop JT. Why unluckily? Because Devine was over there too.

He absolutely killed the guy. It didn't take technique. He simply ran him over like a truck. Jt went on for about 20 yards. Once Devine gets his condition issues over with - and he appears close - he'll terrorize Ds for years to come.

 

[AE 87]

As @NavyNuke has posted, the first opponent adjusted stats of the seasons from football outsiders have been posted.

GT is #2 in F/+ offense and #80 in F/+ defense.

Of the ACC defenses we've faced, VPI is #4 F/+ D, Duke is #19, and Miami is #55.

Of the ACC offenses we've faced, Miami is #9 F/+ O, Duke is #72, and VPI #76.

UNC is #38 F/+ O and #97 F/+ D.