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GT (-5) vs. VT
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<blockquote data-quote="RonJohn" data-source="post: 191814" data-attributes="member: 2426"><p>You are right about the line moving towards VT is an attempt to get more people to bet on GT.</p><p></p><p>Regarding the opening line, I have read articles about how most of them do it. They rank the teams and assign scores to the teams, similar to Sagarin ratings. They get the starting point from the difference in the team's scores. They then add home/away factors. They then get together and discuss the outputs and modify the line bases based on popular sentiment and their personal feelings. They even stated that for some teams, such as Alabama, they add a few points no matter what the circumstances around the game are because some people will bet on Alabama regardless of the situation. They usually do a pretty good job of predicting how people will bet, and the line normally doesn't take wild jumps. Look at the Vegasinsider website and go to last weeks scores. There is only one game in which the result was a cover 0. Most of the games are cover 7 or greater. The Navy game was a cover 35.5 game. The line is not usually very accurate. It only picks the winner about 80% of the time, and only predicts the actual difference in score in a very small percentage of games. If the casinos cared that the lines were accurate, no one working on sports odds currently would still be employed.</p><p></p><p>My main peeve about lines is that there are people who buy into the fantasy of "experts" who accurately predict every game. Those people believe that if they win a bet against the line, that they then "take" money away from the casino. The truth is that the casino is much more similar to a credit card purchasing system that solely transfers money from one person to another and charges a fee to do it. I have no problem with people gambling on sports, or with casinos handling the bets. I just wish that more people understood the actual mechanics behind the system and didn't have fantasies about how it actually works.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="RonJohn, post: 191814, member: 2426"] You are right about the line moving towards VT is an attempt to get more people to bet on GT. Regarding the opening line, I have read articles about how most of them do it. They rank the teams and assign scores to the teams, similar to Sagarin ratings. They get the starting point from the difference in the team's scores. They then add home/away factors. They then get together and discuss the outputs and modify the line bases based on popular sentiment and their personal feelings. They even stated that for some teams, such as Alabama, they add a few points no matter what the circumstances around the game are because some people will bet on Alabama regardless of the situation. They usually do a pretty good job of predicting how people will bet, and the line normally doesn't take wild jumps. Look at the Vegasinsider website and go to last weeks scores. There is only one game in which the result was a cover 0. Most of the games are cover 7 or greater. The Navy game was a cover 35.5 game. The line is not usually very accurate. It only picks the winner about 80% of the time, and only predicts the actual difference in score in a very small percentage of games. If the casinos cared that the lines were accurate, no one working on sports odds currently would still be employed. My main peeve about lines is that there are people who buy into the fantasy of "experts" who accurately predict every game. Those people believe that if they win a bet against the line, that they then "take" money away from the casino. The truth is that the casino is much more similar to a credit card purchasing system that solely transfers money from one person to another and charges a fee to do it. I have no problem with people gambling on sports, or with casinos handling the bets. I just wish that more people understood the actual mechanics behind the system and didn't have fantasies about how it actually works. [/QUOTE]
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