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GT (-5) vs. VT
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<blockquote data-quote="RonJohn" data-source="post: 191725" data-attributes="member: 2426"><p>I do disagree. </p><p></p><p>When the line moves, it is not because anyone at the casino believes something changed that indicates one team will win. It is solely because the betting is not even. You think that the public would be overly pessimistic about GT's chances. However, if you look at the standings, VT is one game ahead with a weaker schedule to this point. VT's coach has decided to retire at the end of the year. Not much reason for the general public to be overly optimistic or pessimistic about either teams chances. The line did move toward VT by 0.5 this evening at a few of the casinos. That tells me that today, more money was being placed on GT than VT.</p><p></p><p>It is not reasonable to assume that Vegas believes anything about the football game. They don't have super smart people or secret computer algorithms.(They do have smart people, and they do use computer algorithms, just not to predict actual winners of games.) They set the lines based on statistical data from a long history of sports betting. They then adjust the lines to make sure the money is even. A few years ago, Florida was playing against a weak team. The line was set extremely high, something like 65 points. The line crept up and was over 70. The casinos then stopped taking bets on that game. The reason they stopped taking bets is that they could not get people to bet on the weak team no matter how high the line was. At -110, the money has to be within 4.5%, or the casinos risk losing money. The casinos are not built on risking money. They DO NOT want to bet money. They are happy making 4.5% on the money that other people gamble. 4.5% does not appear to be a lot, but it is for one weekend. If they do that every weekend(football, basketball, hockey, baseball.....), that comes out to 234% for the year on money that they are just transferring from one group of people to another. It is an extremely profitable and easy business IF you keep within the statistical analysis. If they start letting anything other than statistical analysis of the money influence the odds, then they risk not making their 234% return for the year.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="RonJohn, post: 191725, member: 2426"] I do disagree. When the line moves, it is not because anyone at the casino believes something changed that indicates one team will win. It is solely because the betting is not even. You think that the public would be overly pessimistic about GT's chances. However, if you look at the standings, VT is one game ahead with a weaker schedule to this point. VT's coach has decided to retire at the end of the year. Not much reason for the general public to be overly optimistic or pessimistic about either teams chances. The line did move toward VT by 0.5 this evening at a few of the casinos. That tells me that today, more money was being placed on GT than VT. It is not reasonable to assume that Vegas believes anything about the football game. They don't have super smart people or secret computer algorithms.(They do have smart people, and they do use computer algorithms, just not to predict actual winners of games.) They set the lines based on statistical data from a long history of sports betting. They then adjust the lines to make sure the money is even. A few years ago, Florida was playing against a weak team. The line was set extremely high, something like 65 points. The line crept up and was over 70. The casinos then stopped taking bets on that game. The reason they stopped taking bets is that they could not get people to bet on the weak team no matter how high the line was. At -110, the money has to be within 4.5%, or the casinos risk losing money. The casinos are not built on risking money. They DO NOT want to bet money. They are happy making 4.5% on the money that other people gamble. 4.5% does not appear to be a lot, but it is for one weekend. If they do that every weekend(football, basketball, hockey, baseball.....), that comes out to 234% for the year on money that they are just transferring from one group of people to another. It is an extremely profitable and easy business IF you keep within the statistical analysis. If they start letting anything other than statistical analysis of the money influence the odds, then they risk not making their 234% return for the year. [/QUOTE]
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