GT (-2.5) vs. UVA

[CuseJacket]

GT opens as a 2.5 point favorite vs. UVA.

Also -

• Duke (-1) @ Pitt
• Miami (-10.5) vs. UNC
• VT (-5) vs. BC
• Syracuse (-5) vs. NC St.
• FSU (-7) @ Louisville

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

 

[Northeast Stinger]

One more reason I do no bet. The Tech spread seems reasonable. Duke, Miami, VPI, not so much.

 

[WreckinGT]

Miami -10.5 seems rather excessive.

 

[swampsting]

I hope that Miami line holds up the rest of the week. Seems to good to be true.

 

[RamblinCharger]

I hope Pitt can pull off a win over duke

 

[CuseJacket]

Early action -

• GT spread has moved to -4
• Miami has moved to -12
• Pitt now favored by 1.5 over Duke

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Early action -

• GT spread has moved to -4
• Miami has moved to -12
• Pitt now favored by 1.5 over Duke

Why do I feel like taking Duke in the Pitt game is such an easy call?

 

[Atomic Jacket]

-4 GT seems more reasonable than -2.5.

 

[GTJackets]

How bad do you have to be for them to think VT is 5 points better than you with that offense?

 

[Blumpkin Souffle]

-4 GT seems more reasonable than -2.5.

Oh I thought you had this game as a toss up

 

[takethepoints]

Oh I thought you had this game as a toss up

I don't know about Atomic, but that's how I read it. Has anyone looked at the box scores for their games with Duke and UNC? I did and I can't tell how UVA lost either game. They went up and down the field pretty much unimpeded. Then they get to the red zone and nada. And they played pretty good on D too.

I expect a hard fought game and I hope we play as well on both sides of the ball as we did at Pitt. I think we'll need to.

 

[ilovetheoption]

UVa's offense is weird. We move the ball decently with either QB, we've got a pretty good running back in Kevin Parks.

We've recruited better players, but Mike London is a dope wrt to in game adjustments.

He's exactly the opposite of Paul Johnson. He's a HELL of a recruiter, he's good with the media, but man, as a game day coach, I'm not a huge fan.

The fanbase is ready to move on from him, and hope the next guy can coach up the talent he has brought into the system.

 

[orientalnc]

I again feel the need to remind you guys that the Vegas betting line is not a prediction about the game. It is a prediction about the betting. Odds makers feel the Cavaliers need four points in order for bettors to place bets on them at about the same rate as other bettors are placing bets on GT. What they are trying to do is balance the betting.

The adjustments you are seeing in the line are a reaction to the early bets, not a change in their feelings about the game.

 

[Minawreck]

I again feel the need to remind you guys that the Vegas betting line is not a prediction about the game. It is a prediction about the betting. Odds makers feel the Cavaliers need four points in order for bettors to place bets on them at about the same rate as other bettors are placing bets on GT. What they are trying to do is balance the betting.

The adjustments you are seeing in the line are a reaction to the early bets, not a change in their feelings about the game.

you know the best way for people to continue to use your sportsbook?

Have accurate lines.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I again feel the need to remind you guys that the Vegas betting line is not a prediction about the game. It is a prediction about the betting. Odds makers feel the Cavaliers need four points in order for bettors to place bets on them at about the same rate as other bettors are placing bets on GT. What they are trying to do is balance the betting.

The adjustments you are seeing in the line are a reaction to the early bets, not a change in their feelings about the game.

I think we had this discussion before but maybe not.

I agree with you that the Vegas line is all about balancing bets. Year in and year out though, the Vegas line turns out to be the best durable predictor of who will win. This site has all the different methods and yearly performance. http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?year=14

Every year the Vegas line is near the top while others come and go.

 

[Atomic Jacket]

Oh I thought you had this game as a toss up

Yesterday I gave us 67% chance of beating UVA. Try to keep up.

 

[Lexjacket]

I gave us a 67.375% chance of beating UVA.

 

[IEEEWreck]

I again feel the need to remind you guys that the Vegas betting line is not a prediction about the game. It is a prediction about the betting. Odds makers feel the Cavaliers need four points in order for bettors to place bets on them at about the same rate as other bettors are placing bets on GT. What they are trying to do is balance the betting.

The adjustments you are seeing in the line are a reaction to the early bets, not a change in their feelings about the game.

That means it's also a market equilibrium of expectations for the game.

In a sense, that makes it the average of what everyone (who bets) thinks weighted by how strongly they think it (and are willing to put down cash).

This may or may not be a good set of information. It's pretty hot as an idea right now, though.

 

[Animal02]

I think we had this discussion before but maybe not.

I agree with you that the Vegas line is all about balancing bets. Year in and year out though, the Vegas line turns out to be the best durable predictor of who will win. This site has all the different methods and yearly performance. http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?year=14

Every year the Vegas line is near the top while others come and go.

Is it the opening line or the final line?

I think we had this discussion before but maybe not.

I agree with you that the Vegas line is all about balancing bets. Year in and year out though, the Vegas line turns out to be the best durable predictor of who will win. This site has all the different methods and yearly performance. http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?year=14

Every year the Vegas line is near the top while others come and go.

When you say it is near the top.....is that the opening line or the final line at game time? I can see the final line, since there are so many people that have made "input" into the system.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

When you say it is near the top.....is that the opening line or the final line at game time? I can see the final line, since there are so many people that have made "input" into the system.

I meant the final line. What I think they call "Line (Updated)" as opposed to "Line (Mid-Week)" or "Line (Opening)".

Looking at those three categories over the years, in general, the "Line (Updated)" is better than the other two. And it probably is because of more people betting but also late breaking injury news. But looking through the years, there are years where the opening line was better than the updated one. So go figure.