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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 928277" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>So, this topic has drifted a lot, but it started on the topic of how good this recruiting class is. There are a couple of questions here:</p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">how does this transition compare to the last transition?</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">How bad a loss was The Citadel?</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">how accurate is Ken Suguira’s story?</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">how good is this class?</li> </ol><p></p><p><strong>Last transition—2019: </strong>Coming off of 2018, we had very low returning production on offense—our QB was responsible for the largest chunk of yardage and points on the ground, and we didn’t sling the ball much that year. It wouldn’t have mattered much anyway because Collins wouldn’t have used Marshall in the same way (or at all) even if he had stayed. We also lost key contributors off the defense, but (a) it wasn’t a high-performing defense that year and (b) there were solid contributors on that defense that could have played well if deployed correctly. </p><p></p><p>We were forecast to win about 3 games that year (I think the forecast was actually 3.5, so we slightly underperformed). </p><p></p><p>Would Johnson have won more than 3 games? I think so. We were trending down, but we’d have had continuity on defense with Nate Woody coming back, and I think our defense would have performed at least as well as Collins’ did. Graham and Oliver would have done well. </p><p></p><p>Johnson was getting tired, but he’d have put together one of his normal classes and I think would have just missed a bowl game. </p><p></p><p>Did Johnson leave the cupboard bare? It wasn’t well suited for what Collins wanted to do, but he had enough players to put together a good defense, and he didn’t. He had the mostly same kind of players in 2018 as he had on defense in 2022, and they were at least an above average defense this year, if they weren’t in the top third of the NCAA. </p><p></p><p>There are several components to estimating how good a team you’ll be after a transition: </p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The amount of returning production (not big)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The aggregate amount of talent on your roster (ok on offense, just fine on defense but a little weak on the DL)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The quality of the recruits and transfers you bring in that year</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">What you make out of the players you have (the coaching difference)</li> </ul><p>Collins definitely blew it on the last point. </p><p>He also blew it on the next to last point. He was a head coach changing schools. He wasn’t a coordinator, he wasn’t a position coach. If he was a good recruiter, players who loved him when he contacted them at Rutgers should have followed him. He could have done better in that first recruiting class. Or, another, better coach could have done better in that first class. I say that because other head coaches moving to a new gig HAVE done better in their first classes. </p><p></p><p>TL;DR: You can blame a little of 2019 on Johnson, but the vast majority of that record is on Collins. </p><p></p><p><strong>The Citadel:</strong> OK, this is ridiculous. I watched the game too. The team was not ready to play. This was the worst loss in 40 years, and possibly longer (was Furman worse?). The team was poorly coached, showed up expecting that they could win without much effort. Comparing this to Gardner Webb is silly; for one thing, as bad as the Gardner Webb game was, it was a massively beaten up team with a third-string QB that shouldn’t have been that high up the depth chart WINNING compared to a team that was pretty healthy and just horribly prepared. </p><p></p><p>Collins also had a track record of repeated horrible losses—losses to teams he should never lose to combined with blowout losses to teams that he should at least be competitive with. We got our doors blown off by his old Temple team the next week. We looked inept against Syracuse the next year. He consistently underperformed. 2022 was the only year where there wasn’t a massive upset against us under his watch, and part of that was that he was fired four games in. </p><p></p><p>Before Collins, I have to go back to 1997 to find a game where we were shut out. He got shut out 4 times in 4 years, including back to back. And, today’s teams score more than teams in the past. </p><p></p><p><strong>How accurate was Ken’s story:</strong> Early on we had some one-and done transfers, but that didn’t define how Collins used transfers. The bigger issue is that we had players not perform up to their billing—either through coaching, or development, or injury. Development and coaching were sub-par. Player evaluation may have been sub-par, and probably was. </p><p></p><p>So, no, not accurate—he missed the mark. </p><p></p><p><strong>How good is this year’s class?</strong> You never know until you look back, and that’s what we’re counting on here. </p><p></p><p>If you ask one of our opponent’s coaches, I think they’d give a low grade to our class. We did get some highly-rated transfers. However, if you asked the coaches around the ACC to stack rank the recruiting and transfer classes, they would probably have us in the bottom 4. Maybe even at the bottom. </p><p></p><p>Key did have half of a season to put together the class—normally, you’re building it from the year before, though. Yes, I think a lot of the star ratings are bogus. Our high school recruits are at least 1/3rd “under the radar” guys, if it’s not the entire class. Rivals has us 11th out of 14 in the ACC, with 21 high school players, which is one of the larger high school classes. With opponents relying more on the portal than ever before, it should be easier for us to find that game changer out of high school </p><p></p><p><strong>How well did Key manage the transition?</strong> During the season, he did make the team better. They played better for him than they did for Collins. </p><p></p><p>As far as player acquisition, he had more time than Collins and it looks like he did about as well (unless this class is severely underrated). He will need to step it up for future years, or he’ll need to be a magician at finding diamonds in the rough.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 928277, member: 282"] So, this topic has drifted a lot, but it started on the topic of how good this recruiting class is. There are a couple of questions here: [LIST=1] [*]how does this transition compare to the last transition? [*]How bad a loss was The Citadel? [*]how accurate is Ken Suguira’s story? [*]how good is this class? [/LIST] [B]Last transition—2019: [/B]Coming off of 2018, we had very low returning production on offense—our QB was responsible for the largest chunk of yardage and points on the ground, and we didn’t sling the ball much that year. It wouldn’t have mattered much anyway because Collins wouldn’t have used Marshall in the same way (or at all) even if he had stayed. We also lost key contributors off the defense, but (a) it wasn’t a high-performing defense that year and (b) there were solid contributors on that defense that could have played well if deployed correctly. We were forecast to win about 3 games that year (I think the forecast was actually 3.5, so we slightly underperformed). Would Johnson have won more than 3 games? I think so. We were trending down, but we’d have had continuity on defense with Nate Woody coming back, and I think our defense would have performed at least as well as Collins’ did. Graham and Oliver would have done well. Johnson was getting tired, but he’d have put together one of his normal classes and I think would have just missed a bowl game. Did Johnson leave the cupboard bare? It wasn’t well suited for what Collins wanted to do, but he had enough players to put together a good defense, and he didn’t. He had the mostly same kind of players in 2018 as he had on defense in 2022, and they were at least an above average defense this year, if they weren’t in the top third of the NCAA. There are several components to estimating how good a team you’ll be after a transition: [LIST] [*]The amount of returning production (not big) [*]The aggregate amount of talent on your roster (ok on offense, just fine on defense but a little weak on the DL) [*]The quality of the recruits and transfers you bring in that year [*]What you make out of the players you have (the coaching difference) [/LIST] Collins definitely blew it on the last point. He also blew it on the next to last point. He was a head coach changing schools. He wasn’t a coordinator, he wasn’t a position coach. If he was a good recruiter, players who loved him when he contacted them at Rutgers should have followed him. He could have done better in that first recruiting class. Or, another, better coach could have done better in that first class. I say that because other head coaches moving to a new gig HAVE done better in their first classes. TL;DR: You can blame a little of 2019 on Johnson, but the vast majority of that record is on Collins. [B]The Citadel:[/B] OK, this is ridiculous. I watched the game too. The team was not ready to play. This was the worst loss in 40 years, and possibly longer (was Furman worse?). The team was poorly coached, showed up expecting that they could win without much effort. Comparing this to Gardner Webb is silly; for one thing, as bad as the Gardner Webb game was, it was a massively beaten up team with a third-string QB that shouldn’t have been that high up the depth chart WINNING compared to a team that was pretty healthy and just horribly prepared. Collins also had a track record of repeated horrible losses—losses to teams he should never lose to combined with blowout losses to teams that he should at least be competitive with. We got our doors blown off by his old Temple team the next week. We looked inept against Syracuse the next year. He consistently underperformed. 2022 was the only year where there wasn’t a massive upset against us under his watch, and part of that was that he was fired four games in. Before Collins, I have to go back to 1997 to find a game where we were shut out. He got shut out 4 times in 4 years, including back to back. And, today’s teams score more than teams in the past. [B]How accurate was Ken’s story:[/B] Early on we had some one-and done transfers, but that didn’t define how Collins used transfers. The bigger issue is that we had players not perform up to their billing—either through coaching, or development, or injury. Development and coaching were sub-par. Player evaluation may have been sub-par, and probably was. So, no, not accurate—he missed the mark. [B]How good is this year’s class?[/B] You never know until you look back, and that’s what we’re counting on here. If you ask one of our opponent’s coaches, I think they’d give a low grade to our class. We did get some highly-rated transfers. However, if you asked the coaches around the ACC to stack rank the recruiting and transfer classes, they would probably have us in the bottom 4. Maybe even at the bottom. Key did have half of a season to put together the class—normally, you’re building it from the year before, though. Yes, I think a lot of the star ratings are bogus. Our high school recruits are at least 1/3rd “under the radar” guys, if it’s not the entire class. Rivals has us 11th out of 14 in the ACC, with 21 high school players, which is one of the larger high school classes. With opponents relying more on the portal than ever before, it should be easier for us to find that game changer out of high school [B]How well did Key manage the transition?[/B] During the season, he did make the team better. They played better for him than they did for Collins. As far as player acquisition, he had more time than Collins and it looks like he did about as well (unless this class is severely underrated). He will need to step it up for future years, or he’ll need to be a magician at finding diamonds in the rough. [/QUOTE]
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