Going for 2, down 8, with 22 seconds to go

Northeast Stinger

Northeast Stinger

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Root4GT said:
Generally the 2nd TD never comes because the team that scored never gets the ball back. It requires recovering an onside kick and driving 50+ yards often with less than 1 min 30 sec and no timeouts. If a team does recover an onside kick they do not suffer psychologically. The math works unless you are the clear superior team that is much more likely to win an overtime game. Then play for a tie. Otherwise go for the win. Much less pressure on the offense on the 1st two point conversion.
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But if the team does indeed score that second touchdown the pressure shifts to the defense and the offense has all the momentum. I would rather not lose the momentum and raise the pressure on the defense.
 

bke1984

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Yeah the stats are stupid because they don’t account for the teams playing.

But let’s assume for a second we want to honor the stats. The ideas is that if you go for two twice there are four possible outcomes (G - good, M - miss). Estimates are that 2pt conversions succeed between 40 and 55% of the time. Let’s assume 40% for this example to be conservative.

GG 16%
GM 24%
MG 24%
MM 36%

So, the chance that you make at least one is 64%. Therefore it’s a no brainer to go for it.

Ok…but then why not go for every 2 pt conversion? While we are at it, go for every 4th down and onside kick every kickoff (especially with our kicker that is 5-5 in his career).

Statistically speaking all of these moves result in more expected points…

I find it silly that coaches point to stats when it’s convenient, but ignore them other times.

I like the call because it puts pressure on the opponent. At home maybe don’t do it, but in that’s scenario it could have tightened up some sphincters had it worked. And really - what did you have to lose? A game where you were getting blown out a few min earlier?
 

Root4GT

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bke1984 said:
Yeah the stats are stupid because they don’t account for the teams playing.

But let’s assume for a second we want to honor the stats. The ideas is that if you go for two twice there are four possible outcomes (G - good, M - miss). Estimates are that 2pt conversions succeed between 40 and 55% of the time. Let’s assume 40% for this example to be conservative.

GG 16%
GM 24%
MG 24%
MM 36%

So, the chance that you make at least one is 64%. Therefore it’s a no brainer to go for it.

Ok…but then why not go for every 2 pt conversion? While we are at it, go for every 4th down and onside kick every kickoff (especially with our kicker that is 5-5 in his career).

Statistically speaking all of these moves result in more expected points…

I find it silly that coaches point to stats when it’s convenient, but ignore them other times.

I like the call because it puts pressure on the opponent. At home maybe don’t do it, but in that’s scenario it could have tightened up some sphincters had it worked. And really - what did you have to lose? A game where you were getting blown out a few min earlier?
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If you pay attention teams go for 4th downs far more than was common 20-25 years ago often regardless of field position, distance and score. Analytics have dramatically changed all sports the few decades and the pace of change has quickened.
 

Root4GT

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bke1984 said:
Well the strategy sort of depends on the man in coverage not diving wildly at the receiver when he knows he has no help behind him…
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Depends on la lot to make it work. There was a lot of ground for the safety to cover to get to the WR. He also has to wait a split second to see if a slot receiver is coming into his area. He also has to have the speed to get there. Generally a WR beats a safety on speed.

Blitzing often works. Teams also often get burned when they blitz.

Our issue is neither blitz or rush 3 works.
 
Northeast Stinger

Northeast Stinger

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Root4GT said:
If you pay attention teams go for 4th downs far more than was common 20-25 years ago often regardless of field position, distance and score. Analytics have dramatically changed all sports the few decades and the pace of change has quickened.
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Yes, but.

Football, all else being equal, is a game of emotion. Any good coach will weigh not only the analytics but the psychology of a decision.

Let’s say for the sake of discussion that the analytics say throwing 4 straight bombs gives you a 90% chance of scoring a touchdown. But if your quarterback is having confidence issues then the impact of coming up with zero points after 4 straight throws to the end zone would be psychologically devastating and he will probably be no good to you for the rest of the game. Better to put him in that situation at the end of the game with nothing left to lose. If he comes up with zero then it is understandable and something he can get over quickly before the next game.

Whether going for 2, onside kicks, going for it on 4th down, or any other move, you have to weigh the mental state of your team, whether they have the confidence to pull it off and what the psychological impact will be if they make it or if they don’t make it. Likewise, it is good to consider the same factors with your opponent, everything from how much confidence they are playing with to what the impact will be on them if you pull it off or don’t pull it off.

In my life time there were two coaches who were masters of psychology- Bobby Dodd and Vince Lombardi. The psychological impact of a calling a certain play or making a certain coaching decision was a huge factor in their success.
 

Lee

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Northeast Stinger said:
But if the team does indeed score that second touchdown the pressure shifts to the defense and the offense has all the momentum. I would rather not lose the momentum and raise the pressure on the defense.
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Any momentum lost by not scoring is immediately regained and then some once you recover the onside kick.

I was confused at the time on why we were going for 2, but the math checks out and less than 5 minutes of game time before that we essentially had no shot to win anyways. Might as well go for it.
 
Northeast Stinger

Northeast Stinger

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Lee said:
Any momentum lost by not scoring is immediately regained and then some once you recover the onside kick.

I was confused at the time on why we were going for 2, but the math checks out and less than 5 minutes of game time before that we essentially had no shot to win anyways. Might as well go for it.
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But the offense lost momentum and never looked the same after flubbing the 2 pt conversion. I’m not arguing with the analytics just saying the analytics don’t matter if your offense is crestfallen.
 

Root4GT

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Northeast Stinger said:
But the offense lost momentum and never looked the same after flubbing the 2 pt conversion. I’m not arguing with the analytics just saying the analytics don’t matter if your offense is crestfallen.
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Not sure what game you were watching. Our last score came with 22 seconds left. We recover the onside kick so we have 20 seconds left at the 50 yard line. We move to their 31 yard line in 25 seconds on 3 plays, two complete and one incomplete pass. What do you think is realistic to do in 20 seconds?
 
Northeast Stinger

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Root4GT said:
Not sure what game you were watching. Our last score came with 22 seconds left. We recover the onside kick so we have 20 seconds left at the 50 yard line. We move to their 31 yard line in 25 seconds on 3 plays, two complete and one incomplete pass. What do you think is realistic to do in 20 seconds?
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How long did it take Gibbs to run 71 yards for a touchdown? Nope, going for 2 pts was meaningless if the offense was no longer going to be firing on all cylinders after failing.
 

kittysniper101

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Northeast Stinger said:
How long did it take Gibbs to run 71 yards for a touchdown? Nope, going for 2 pts was meaningless if the offense was no longer going to be firing on all cylinders after failing.
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Just because we didn't rip off an incredibly rare play means the team was deflated?
I get there's more to the decision-making than strictly statistics which are agnostic of psychology, but come on.

You're also forgetting the possibility that the team is on-board with the coach, understands the decision-making process, and accepts that they still have a chance to tie the game even after failing the 2-pt. Hell you saw that the team hadn't given up by just how much they put into the last 2 minutes of the game, what makes you think that being down 8 instead of 21 is suddenly the problem? And if your point is that failing a single 2-pt conversion loses you the game, well the statistics agree with you that if you save the 2-pt conversion for after the second TD and fail, well you lost the game. Who cares if it was by 1 instead of 7?
 
Northeast Stinger

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kittysniper101 said:
Just because we didn't rip off an incredibly rare play means the team was deflated?
I get there's more to the decision-making than strictly statistics which are agnostic of psychology, but come on.

You're also forgetting the possibility that the team is on-board with the coach, understands the decision-making process, and accepts that they still have a chance to tie the game even after failing the 2-pt. Hell you saw that the team hadn't given up by just how much they put into the last 2 minutes of the game, what makes you think that being down 8 instead of 21 is suddenly the problem? And if your point is that failing a single 2-pt conversion loses you the game, well the statistics agree with you that if you save the 2-pt conversion for after the second TD and fail, well you lost the game. Who cares if it was by 1 instead of 7?
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I like your point that the team is on board with the coach and the decision making. That is a good perspective and I will factor that into my opinion.

Just to clarify how the psychology works. It’s not being down by 8 or 21 that is the issue. It’s reaching way down into your guts to find that last bit of energy to claw your way back. If that super effort is rewarded with results it reinforces the psychology and shoots a little extra adrenaline. It that effort falls short, losing the 2 pt conversion, there’s usually nothing left in the tank. That’s why I would have saved the 2 pt conversion for a second touchdown. You only have one chance to score the 2 pts while the team is still peaking psychologically. After failing, an offense is often going through the motions without the same intensity.
 

Lee

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Northeast Stinger said:
But the offense lost momentum and never looked the same after flubbing the 2 pt conversion. I’m not arguing with the analytics just saying the analytics don’t matter if your offense is crestfallen.
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We had like 20 seconds to go 50 yards. We didn’t have time to tell if we looked different. The play calling was completely different.
 

Lee

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Northeast Stinger said:
We looked different.
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Who would have thought we looked different with 20 seconds to go 50 yards.

Can’t believe we didnt have the whole playbook at our disposal.

You’re right though. The reason we lost was because our offense’s feelings were hurt and they didn’t play as good the last 20 seconds of the game.

They just couldn’t get that missed 2 point play out of the way. Hope we get a sports psychologist in there this week before we play again…
 
Northeast Stinger

Northeast Stinger

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Lee said:
Who would have thought we looked different with 20 seconds to go 50 yards.

Can’t believe we didnt have the whole playbook at our disposal.

You’re right though. The reason we lost was because our offense’s feelings were hurt and they didn’t play as good the last 20 seconds of the game.

They just couldn’t get that missed 2 point play out of the way. Hope we get a sports psychologist in there this week before we play again…
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Now you’ve got it. 😊
 
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