Geoff Collins as a HC - Full Season Data

[Vespidae]

There is still a huge correlation between fairway accuracy in driving and greens in regulation, which is correlated to scoring. While driving longer reduces distance to hole, closer shots from bad lies reduces GIR. Golf is also harder to be consistent with statistically as each course is unique and rewards accuray/length in different ways.

Mark Brodie’s work suggests otherwise. And that’s because modern courses have fringe that supports recovery shots. The data shows given a choice of hitting it in the fairway vs. hitting it 20 yds further, even if missing the fairway, ... the choice is clear. Get the distance.

 

[MH55]

Reading this thread w some amusement. Of course, Im chock full of Temple information but I intend to participate more next week in expectation of our game hosting you boys in Philly. As a lil preview, Im dropping this tidbit for your entertainment and consideration. This was OC Patanude's first interview providing a glimpse of what to expect from his offense @ Temple.

Now, Temple's Offensive identity prior to his arrival was power run game, frequent 2 TE sets and the I. We were very successful (AAC Relevant) with it. In this dandy, and you only have to watch the first 2 mins, DP tells us we are going to continue that philosophy. As the 2 minutes elapses, he gets around to telling us what he really wanted, to change our offense completely into a "play fast" "sling it around" Spread. And thats what we got. Our power run game evaporated by the first half of his first game. And we continued to run, even in short yardage, out of a pistol formation, the same thing I have witnessed watching 2 of your 3 games....and just as unsuccessfully I might add.

I can Dave Save you the time with the last 3 minutes of the video interview w a quick synopsis. In this portion, DP is truthful about 2 things: 1) He came to Temple because he has a long and solid relationship w Collins. Translation: You have him for at least 2 years. 2) Being in Philly, he expects to be booed if his offense doesnt perform......He was, roundly.

 

[Vespidae]

Did he really say “cool”?

 

[Technut1990]

These guys were tormented in high school. What did they do when they were dating and another girl smiled at them ? Do they see which one smiles the biggest that day and hang with her ?

 

[AE 87]

For those unfamiliar, Football Outsiders (FO) publishes a popular efficiency ranking that many have referenced in posts throughout the years. FO adjusts for strength of opponent and also removes garbage time, among other things, in determining each team's relative strength against another. In other words, the premise is this get team comparisons as close to "apples to apples" as possible.

I decided to revisit the rankings for Collins' two years at Temple, to put his Head Coach track record into greater context than 3 games at GT. This has been posted before in various capacities, however I thought it useful during a bye week, particularly in the lead-up to the game @ Temple.

Temple

1st year - 2017

• Regular season
  • 7-6 overall (includes bowl win)
  • 4-4 in conference
• Football Outsiders Rank
  • Overall - 61
  • OFEI - 94
  • DFEI - 36
  • SFEI - 39

2nd year - 2018

• Regular season
  • 8-5 overall (includes bowl loss)
  • 7-1 in conference
• Football Outsiders Rank
  • Overall - 45
  • OFEI - 58
  • DFEI - 42
  • SFEI - 54

Note: Football Outsiders excludes games against FCS opponents in their rankings. In 2018, Temple lost to FCS Villanova by a final score of 19-17 in the first week of the season.

Link to FEI: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei/2018
Link to Temple box scores: https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/218/season/2018

How do you interpret this data? How much weight should we put on it?

Certainly there is additional context pre- and post-Collins, and also relative comparisons to GT, but I didn't want to get too detailed in the OP.

Fwiw, these two years are the only years in which CDP has been an OC at the FBS level. He got better.

 

[InsideLB]

Temple is supposed to be loaded this year...apparently GC recruited well though not sure if the rankings correlate with the media's perception that Temple is loaded.

 

[ibeattetris]

Temple is supposed to be loaded this year...apparently GC recruited well though not sure if the rankings correlate with the media's perception that Temple is loaded.

According to the above linked video, Patenaude thought it was loaded when they got there too. The juniors and seniors on Temple's team weren't even recruited by CGC. I really don't think there is anything to take away from CGC's time at Temple. Two years is too short.

 

[MWBATL]

So help me out here.....

If Temple beats us next week, does that mean Collins is a good coach because he left Temple in good shape, good enough to beat a Power 5 team (us)? Or does it mean he is a bad coach because we lost to a non-P5 team?

Conversely, if we beat Temple, is Collins oversold as a coach because Temple is a washout? Or he is great because we won?

Just want to make sure I understand the talking points before we get there....

 

[Madison Grant]

So are you saying the data is un-reliable or can’t be used to make a judgment due to changes from year to year

I would say the data does not predict the future and has nuances.

I would say the data has similarities to the start of this season.

I would say the data shows we did not hire a coach with a proven record of a high level of achievement or turnaround ability. Please don’t miss understand... the data shows that we did not hire a coach with no level of achievement.

The only data we will have is 2017 through the current date.

I would say the data shows we hired a coach who has been HC two years, one of which he went 7-1 in conference. I'm not sure why you are drawing the hasty conclusions you are.
Matt Rhule's first two seasons at Temple: 2-10 and 6-6.
Jeff Monken's first two seasons at Army: 4-8 and 2-10. Collins at least showed improvement in his 2nd year at Temple.
The fair and impartial thing to do would to be to give a coach more than 3 games.

 

[CuseJacket]

So help me out here.....

If Temple beats us next week, does that mean Collins is a good coach because he left Temple in good shape, good enough to beat a Power 5 team (us)? Or does it mean he is a bad coach because we lost to a non-P5 team?

Conversely, if we beat Temple, is Collins oversold as a coach because Temple is a washout? Or he is great because we won?

Just want to make sure I understand the talking points before we get there....

Expect confirmation bias both directions

My take is that if two years of data hasn't really proved anything concretely, then what about 3 games in a bigger transition year?

To me, it can go beyond W and L in drawing a conclusion. Context matters. I want us to play clean and put players in the best position to win. Before the season I would have thought we'd be underdogs @ Temple even in that scenario.

 

[Jim Prather]

So help me out here.....

If Temple beats us next week, does that mean Collins is a good coach because he left Temple in good shape, good enough to beat a Power 5 team (us)? Or does it mean he is a bad coach because we lost to a non-P5 team?

Conversely, if we beat Temple, is Collins oversold as a coach because Temple is a washout? Or he is great because we won?

Just want to make sure I understand the talking points before we get there....

LOL.. That is the first thing I have laughed at this whole week..

 

[GTRambler]

Incomplete. Only two years and three games as head coach, 16-12. Insufficient data.

 

[BurdellJacket]

I have been trying to find it still. Here is a fromtherumbleseat blog post regarding our FEI in December of 2014:
https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2...on-course-to-break-ncaa-efficiency-rating-fei

So at that point, no team had ever scored above a 1.0, and if we look back, there are tons of team over 1.0 since they changed the formula.

Funny enough, I can't find a blog post that marks what we ended at, but I did find one of my GTSwarm posts from 2015
https://gtswarm.com/threads/how-efficient-is-cpjs-offense.5608/page-2#post-119785


Remember, prior to that season, no one had even broken .9 and we almost broke into the 1.o range.

I can't find, but I think I remember in the comment sections on football outsiders Georgia Tech was specifically mentioned regarding one of the reasons the formula needed to be looked at again.

Edit: Shout out to @Whiskey_Clear for calling it too:


Super edit: Here is wayback machine for FEI with us at .999
https://web.archive.org/web/20150109083058/http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff

Great get,@ibeattetris, I remember that well. It was crazy. Our OFEI Was 30% better than the second-place team, Auburn. They had to change the formula because no one wanted to admit that a primarily rushing team could ever be that much better than a more conventional offense.

 

[stech81]

So help me out here.....

If Temple beats us next week, does that mean Collins is a good coach because he left Temple in good shape, good enough to beat a Power 5 team (us)? Or does it mean he is a bad coach because we lost to a non-P5 team?

Conversely, if we beat Temple, is Collins oversold as a coach because Temple is a washout? Or he is great because we won?

Just want to make sure I understand the talking points before we get there....

If Temple wins it means they will not take Patenaude back .